Well, after my last post about the Detroit Tigers Shortstop vacancy, Matt, one of the Tigers Minor League bloggers asked if I'd look towards left field and who the Tigers should pursue.
Well, I gave it a shot. The guys I examined were Marcus Thames, Timo Perez, Raul Ibanez, Adam Dunn, Shannon Stewart. The first two, Thames and Perez, are the most likely in-house platoon. Shannon Stewart is a free agent and (this should say enough about the LF free agent market) he's the best available, in my opinion, other then the rest of the guys I'm looking at. Ibanez is under contract through 2008, so the only way he'd end up a Tigers is via a trade with the Seattle Mariners and that's an entirely plausible option. The Mariners have a young outfielder named Adam Jones who's poised to finally take over an everyday spot in left field in 2008. They could look to move Ibanez to 1st base and deal Richie Sexson, too, but that's neither here nor there in relation to the Tigers left field position. Adam Dunn has a 2008 option that the Reds must think about picking up. They cannot pick it up and trade him, as exercising his option gives him a full no trade clause through 6/15/08 and a limited no trade clause from that point after in which he can designate 10 clubs he would accept a trade to. So dealing him at next years deadline could be tricky. So we'll just assume Dunn will be a free agent if he's any option for Detroit, because if he's coming back with the Reds he cannot be dealt until at least 6/15/08.
But, that's a whole lot of contractual non-sense that doesn't help evaluate each guy. We'll compare them to each other, offensively and defensively, as well as to the baseline projection of the average left fielder.
First, the baseline projection:
The Average Left Fielder:
Using the same process from the last post about the shortstop vacancy, I've concluded that the average left fielder would "create" about 74.75 runs offensively when weighted for 550 plate appearances in a season.
How do the rest of these guys fare? Well . . .
Raul Ibanez - 106 Weighted Runs Created
Adam Dunn - 103
Marcus Thames* - 77
Shannon Stewart* - 77
Timo Perez* - 67
(Note: * = I figured out both Thames and Perez's runs created per plate appearance for the last 4 years since they were part time players. I took that number and extrapolated it out over the course of 550 PA's and got a Runs Created number for each of their last 4 seasons. Then, I used the weighting [.10 for 2004, .20 for 2005, .30 for 2006, .40 for 2007] system to get the Weighted Runs Created number that is above. For Stewart, I did that for his 2 injury plagued years in 2004 and 2006. That was what I felt was the best way to deduce what Thames and Perez could do when given their last 4 years worth of sporadic playing time.)
What sticks out from those numbers is just how good Raul Ibanez has been offensively. He's one that not many people talk about but he seems to fit the bill for a left-handed hitting left fielder that the Tigers have been pining for for what feels like forever. Also, Shannon Stewart is a very underrated outfielder and has been his entire career. He's got a career .796 OPS, which is higher then I had thought.
But, we all know that offense is only half the battle. In 2007, everyone who played in left field for Detroit was a collective -0.4 defensively. So, just a few ticks below average.
But, how do Thames and the rest we're reviewing, compare to each other defensively?
(remember, these defensive numbers are just from 2007)
Stewart - +6.1 runs
Perez - -0.8
Thames - -1.8
Ibanez - -7.1
Dunn - -18.6
This is the reason I wanted to include Shannon Stewart. Offensively, yes, he's not near on par with Dunn or Ibanez, but he's always been a solid defender. The rest of this list is brutal, which is to be expected. I've been shocked Marcus Thames has stuck in the outfield for as long as he had without being worked out at 1st base before he came to Detroit. Raul Ibanez and especially Adam Dunn are screaming "Designated Hitter" but with Gary Sheffield on the roster, the DH spot is occupied.
So, we add the offensive and defensive numbers and we get (I'm rounding off the defensive numbers):
Ibanez - 99
Dunn - 84
Stewart - 83
Thames - 75
Perez - 66
When you factor in defense (granted it's just the 2007 numbers, but Dunn hasn't ever been a good fielder and Ibanez has been declining for a while) Shannon Stewart's value starts to rise.
The baseline test to figure out these guys' worth are their numbers compared to the average left fielder. Remember, I concluded that the average left fielder is worth 74.75 runs created, rounded up to 75. The average left fielder defensively is worth 0.0 runs (doesn't help, doesn't hurt). So these guys total of runs above average are:
Ibanez - 24
Dunn - 9
Stewart - 8
Thames - 0
Perez - -9
To put a dollar value on it, every 10 runs are roughly equivalent to 1 win. Each win is worth, in major league baseball, about $2.5 million which is their actual value (AV). Last year teams paid about $4 per 'win' so we'll multiple their runs number by 4 to get their market value based on last years market (MV) and compare it to their 2008 salary (AS). The following are in millions. . .
Ibanez - $6 (AV), $9.6 (MV), $5.5 (AS)
Dunn - $2.25, $3.6, $13
Stewart - $2, $3.2, $N/A - (Free agent. Made $1 million in a 1 year deal with Oakland in 2007*)
Thames - AV = the average salary for a LF (MV is the same as his AV), he made $432.5K last year.
Perez - Does it matter? 9 runs below average should = Toledo Mud Hen.
Marucs Thames is essentially the average left fielder in baseball. The minimum salary a player can make for a full 2008 season is $390K, so bringing Marcus back at even a raise to $500K would probably be about what he's worth. The average Major League baseball player made $2,944,556 million in 2007. In this article from the winter of 2006, it says outfielders average salary was $4.88 million. Most of that is probably center and right fielders, so I'd think it's safe to assume the average left fielder is in the neighborhood of $1.2 to about a tick under $2 million. Timo Perez should just not be on the roster.
Remember, the reason that Adam Dunn scored so low is due to the fact that he's the Carlos Guillen of the outfield. In a word: Atrocious. He shouldn't even really be a 1st baseman in baseball, and if he were a DH (where he should be), he'd be worth a ton more since he wouldn't be playing defense. You could make a case that based purely on offensive output he should be worth over $25 million and I think he'll get near that come 2009 (or 2008 if they decline his option) when he hits the open market.
The asterisk next to Shannon Stewart is that his $1 million contract from 2007 is misleading. His 2004, 2005, 2006 salaries were: $4.5, $5.5, $6.5 and he took the $1 million because people were skeptical as he was hurt in 2006. Now that he's played an entire season and back to what he's done recently, he'll make more then that. I think he'll get somewhere between $3.5-5 million depending on the amount of offers he receives.
Keep in mind that this, and the post on Guillen's replacement at shortstop, do not take into account the cost of trading prospects for guys like Ibanez, Edgar Renteria, or Jack Wilson.
Monday, October 8, 2007
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
Carlos Guillen, his replacements, and their place vs. average SS's
Now that the baseball regular season is finished, I figured it was as good a time as any to take a look at replacement shortstops as it's official that Carlos Guillen will shift to 1st base full time making SS a legit hole that needs to be filled.
This is my first quantitative analysis of a position, so bear with me. But, I feel this should give a good rough estimate of what we could expect from a replacement shortstop.
Names I've heard associated with the Tigers vacancy up the middle are Jack Wilson, Edgar Renteria, Omar Vizquel and I'm going to throw in Miguel Tejada just for fun since he's been in countless trade rumors the last couple of seasons.
So buckle in and hopefully I've been clear enough in my descriptions that you can follow along as this post is quite lengthy. Feel free to take a snack break in the middle. Or, even a nap if you so choose.
I've decided to compare the potential replacements with both the average shortstop in the major leagues over the course of 2004-2007 as well as how Carlos Guillen faired at that position.
So, lets start with the baseline comparison which is the offensive production of an average shortstop in the majors leagues the last 4 years.
To do this, I looked to the wonderful Hardball Times and used their Runs Created numbers to find out the top 100 shortstop performances from 2004-2007 in the major leagues. With this information, I looked to what I think is the best team specific baseball blog on the Internet in the U.S.S. Mariner and a post by Dave about Ichiro's contract extension. He weighted the years (the post was written in July, still about halfway through the baseball season) like this: 10% weight for the 2004 season, 20% for 2005, 35% for 2006 and 35% for 2007. He evened 2007 and 2006 because the season wasn't complete so both had value. I've changed this to 10% for '04, 20% for '03, 30% for '06, and 40% for '07.
Armed with this, I came to the conclusion that the average shortstop would "create" about 67.22 runs a year when weighted for 550 plate appearances, but we'll round it off to just 67. So, the first thing to look at is how each of the potential replacements for Guillen, as well as Guillen himself, fared in comparison to the average shortstops. If you need names to put to this "average" number, guys like Jason Bartlett of Minnesota (in 2007) and Khalil Greene of the Padres (in 2005) both posted RC numbers of 67 for a single season.
So, how has Carlos Guillen fared? Well...
Carlos Guillen:
Offensively, Guillen is usually regarded as one of the best hitting shortstops in baseball, which is largely accurate. To examine his offense we'll use Runs Created which is an accurate assessment of both hitting and baserunning.
2004: 102 Runs Created
2005: 42
2006: 107
2007: 99
So, Carlos Guillen's Weighted Runs Created (WRC) average for the last 4 years is 90.3. But, since that is skewed by his injury plagued 2005 year that limited him to 87 games, I've decided to take his Runs Created per Game average for the 2005 year and extrapolate it out over the course of 132 games (his games played average over the last 4 years). That would have given him about 64 Runs Created for the 2005 season and would change his WRC average.
His new Weighted Runs Created average over the last four years using 102, 64, 107, and 99 is a 94.6 WRC, or rounded up to 95. Offensively that puts him at 28 runs better then the average shortstop is offensively.
So, we know how he rates versus average shortstops, but how does he rank versus his potential replacements?
Well, here are their WRC numbers for the last 4 seasons:
Miguel Tejada - 97 (30 above average)
Edgar Renteria - 85 (18 above average)
Omar Vizquel - 74 (7 above average)
Jack Wilson - 68 (1 above average)
That would place Carlos 2nd on this list offensively overall and in terms of offense above average shortstops.
But, Tigers fans all know that Guillen is good offensively. The reason he's moving is partially because of Sean Casey's lack of production cost him the 1st base job, and because Guillen is bad defensively.
How bad, you ask? Well, Justin Inaz has done a bunch of math and come up with a runs number to put on all of the fielding positions (except catcher and pitcher). Well, with a runs number put onto defense, that fits perfectly into what I'm doing.
His defensive numbers for shortstops are found here, and our subjects we're dissecting rate like this, runs wise, defensively:
Jack Wilson: +15 runs (5th best)
Omar Vizquel: +12.9 (round up to 13, 7th best)
Miguel Tejada: +4.9 (round up to 5, 14th best)
Edgar Renteria: +3.6 (round up to 4, 19th best)
Carlos Guillen: -14.9 (round up to -15, 93rd best)
Yes, Carlos Guillen, according to Inaz's numbers, is costing the Tigers 15 runs this year, while everyone else we're looking at prevents a positive number of runs this year.
(Note: If you would like a breakdown on how these defensive numbers are calculated, he's broken it down here.)
So, we add these defensive runs and offensive runs each guy is worth and get the following totals:
Miguel Tejada - 102 Runs
Edgar Renteria - 89
Omar Vizquel - 87
Jack Wilson - 83
Carlos Guillen - 80
Very interesting results, to say the least. So, to tie this back to the first baseline test, these guys versus the average shortstop (who is a 0.0 defensively on Justin Inaz's defensive numbers) is 67.
Miguel Tejada - 35 Runs better then the average shortstop
Edgar Renteria - 22
Omar Vizquel - 20
Jack Wilson - 16
Carlos Guillen - 13
Borrowing, again, from Dave and that Mariners blog, a lot of people far smarter then I have stated that 10 runs is roughly 1 win. So Tejada is 3.5 Wins, Renteria 2.2 wins, etc etc.
To put a dollar value on each of these, it's widely accepted that each win is worth about $2.5 million which would give you the actual value of each player. Last offseason, teams paid about $4 million per "win" to free agents. So, their Actual Values (AV), Market Values based on last years market (MV), and their actual salaries for the 2008 season (AS) are. . .
(Figures are in Millions)
Miguel Tejada - $8.75 AV, $14 MV, $13 AS
Edgar Renteria - $5.5 AV, $8.8 MV, $9 AS
Omar Vizquel - $5 AV, $8 MV, AS is unknown, he's a free agent. In 2007 he made $4 million
Jack Wilson - $4 AV, $6.4, $6.5 AS
Carlos Guillen - $3.25 AV, $5.2, $12 AS
Yes, I know this is a mind-altering information that many of us Tiger fans will dismiss, but these are the numbers. If you were to re-read this post again and think of the players as Player A, Player B, Player C, Player D, Player E and detach yourself from the names and objectively look, it does start to make sense. Carlos Guillen is downright atrocious defensively, and the numbers (from the 07 season) say that his defense is as much a hindrance at shortstop as his offense was great for the team.
It is worth noting, however, that these dollar figures are based on the total runs (offensive and defensive) and that it's something that should be taken slightly less seriously then the strictly offensive comparison because the defensive numbers are based only on 1 years worth of defense. I'll look around and try to find the +/- numbers defensively (probably will be courtesy the Fielding Bible by John Dewan) which then could be converted to runs and then, ultimately, a dollar amount. However, the metrics on The Hardball Times website show that Guillen has declined defensively at short during the span of 2004-2007. Jack Wilson, in that same time fram, has declined but is still in the upper tier as his range is as good as ever. Miguel Tejada's range has diminished greatly, but still has slightly better range then Guillen. Edgar Renteria's defense has diminished as has his range, but he's still a middle-of-the-2nd tier defenders. And, Omar Vizquel's range has stayed the same or slightly diminished, but he's as sure handed as they come. If he gets to the ball, chances are he'll make a good decision.
So, I guess what I'm saying is that the meat of this are the offensive numbers, the rest is just the fixin's that are interesting to gander at.
I took BIG helps from both Justin Inaz and Dave (who's last name I don't know, I'll update it when I do find it out) and his U.S.S. Mariner blog. Both of those blogs are worth checking out even if you're not a fan of either team but still into statistical evaluation (Justin Inaz is a Reds fan and blogs on them).
This is my first quantitative analysis of a position, so bear with me. But, I feel this should give a good rough estimate of what we could expect from a replacement shortstop.
Names I've heard associated with the Tigers vacancy up the middle are Jack Wilson, Edgar Renteria, Omar Vizquel and I'm going to throw in Miguel Tejada just for fun since he's been in countless trade rumors the last couple of seasons.
So buckle in and hopefully I've been clear enough in my descriptions that you can follow along as this post is quite lengthy. Feel free to take a snack break in the middle. Or, even a nap if you so choose.
I've decided to compare the potential replacements with both the average shortstop in the major leagues over the course of 2004-2007 as well as how Carlos Guillen faired at that position.
So, lets start with the baseline comparison which is the offensive production of an average shortstop in the majors leagues the last 4 years.
To do this, I looked to the wonderful Hardball Times and used their Runs Created numbers to find out the top 100 shortstop performances from 2004-2007 in the major leagues. With this information, I looked to what I think is the best team specific baseball blog on the Internet in the U.S.S. Mariner and a post by Dave about Ichiro's contract extension. He weighted the years (the post was written in July, still about halfway through the baseball season) like this: 10% weight for the 2004 season, 20% for 2005, 35% for 2006 and 35% for 2007. He evened 2007 and 2006 because the season wasn't complete so both had value. I've changed this to 10% for '04, 20% for '03, 30% for '06, and 40% for '07.
Armed with this, I came to the conclusion that the average shortstop would "create" about 67.22 runs a year when weighted for 550 plate appearances, but we'll round it off to just 67. So, the first thing to look at is how each of the potential replacements for Guillen, as well as Guillen himself, fared in comparison to the average shortstops. If you need names to put to this "average" number, guys like Jason Bartlett of Minnesota (in 2007) and Khalil Greene of the Padres (in 2005) both posted RC numbers of 67 for a single season.
So, how has Carlos Guillen fared? Well...
Carlos Guillen:
Offensively, Guillen is usually regarded as one of the best hitting shortstops in baseball, which is largely accurate. To examine his offense we'll use Runs Created which is an accurate assessment of both hitting and baserunning.
2004: 102 Runs Created
2005: 42
2006: 107
2007: 99
So, Carlos Guillen's Weighted Runs Created (WRC) average for the last 4 years is 90.3. But, since that is skewed by his injury plagued 2005 year that limited him to 87 games, I've decided to take his Runs Created per Game average for the 2005 year and extrapolate it out over the course of 132 games (his games played average over the last 4 years). That would have given him about 64 Runs Created for the 2005 season and would change his WRC average.
His new Weighted Runs Created average over the last four years using 102, 64, 107, and 99 is a 94.6 WRC, or rounded up to 95. Offensively that puts him at 28 runs better then the average shortstop is offensively.
So, we know how he rates versus average shortstops, but how does he rank versus his potential replacements?
Well, here are their WRC numbers for the last 4 seasons:
Miguel Tejada - 97 (30 above average)
Edgar Renteria - 85 (18 above average)
Omar Vizquel - 74 (7 above average)
Jack Wilson - 68 (1 above average)
That would place Carlos 2nd on this list offensively overall and in terms of offense above average shortstops.
But, Tigers fans all know that Guillen is good offensively. The reason he's moving is partially because of Sean Casey's lack of production cost him the 1st base job, and because Guillen is bad defensively.
How bad, you ask? Well, Justin Inaz has done a bunch of math and come up with a runs number to put on all of the fielding positions (except catcher and pitcher). Well, with a runs number put onto defense, that fits perfectly into what I'm doing.
His defensive numbers for shortstops are found here, and our subjects we're dissecting rate like this, runs wise, defensively:
Jack Wilson: +15 runs (5th best)
Omar Vizquel: +12.9 (round up to 13, 7th best)
Miguel Tejada: +4.9 (round up to 5, 14th best)
Edgar Renteria: +3.6 (round up to 4, 19th best)
Carlos Guillen: -14.9 (round up to -15, 93rd best)
Yes, Carlos Guillen, according to Inaz's numbers, is costing the Tigers 15 runs this year, while everyone else we're looking at prevents a positive number of runs this year.
(Note: If you would like a breakdown on how these defensive numbers are calculated, he's broken it down here.)
So, we add these defensive runs and offensive runs each guy is worth and get the following totals:
Miguel Tejada - 102 Runs
Edgar Renteria - 89
Omar Vizquel - 87
Jack Wilson - 83
Carlos Guillen - 80
Very interesting results, to say the least. So, to tie this back to the first baseline test, these guys versus the average shortstop (who is a 0.0 defensively on Justin Inaz's defensive numbers) is 67.
Miguel Tejada - 35 Runs better then the average shortstop
Edgar Renteria - 22
Omar Vizquel - 20
Jack Wilson - 16
Carlos Guillen - 13
Borrowing, again, from Dave and that Mariners blog, a lot of people far smarter then I have stated that 10 runs is roughly 1 win. So Tejada is 3.5 Wins, Renteria 2.2 wins, etc etc.
To put a dollar value on each of these, it's widely accepted that each win is worth about $2.5 million which would give you the actual value of each player. Last offseason, teams paid about $4 million per "win" to free agents. So, their Actual Values (AV), Market Values based on last years market (MV), and their actual salaries for the 2008 season (AS) are. . .
(Figures are in Millions)
Miguel Tejada - $8.75 AV, $14 MV, $13 AS
Edgar Renteria - $5.5 AV, $8.8 MV, $9 AS
Omar Vizquel - $5 AV, $8 MV, AS is unknown, he's a free agent. In 2007 he made $4 million
Jack Wilson - $4 AV, $6.4, $6.5 AS
Carlos Guillen - $3.25 AV, $5.2, $12 AS
Yes, I know this is a mind-altering information that many of us Tiger fans will dismiss, but these are the numbers. If you were to re-read this post again and think of the players as Player A, Player B, Player C, Player D, Player E and detach yourself from the names and objectively look, it does start to make sense. Carlos Guillen is downright atrocious defensively, and the numbers (from the 07 season) say that his defense is as much a hindrance at shortstop as his offense was great for the team.
It is worth noting, however, that these dollar figures are based on the total runs (offensive and defensive) and that it's something that should be taken slightly less seriously then the strictly offensive comparison because the defensive numbers are based only on 1 years worth of defense. I'll look around and try to find the +/- numbers defensively (probably will be courtesy the Fielding Bible by John Dewan) which then could be converted to runs and then, ultimately, a dollar amount. However, the metrics on The Hardball Times website show that Guillen has declined defensively at short during the span of 2004-2007. Jack Wilson, in that same time fram, has declined but is still in the upper tier as his range is as good as ever. Miguel Tejada's range has diminished greatly, but still has slightly better range then Guillen. Edgar Renteria's defense has diminished as has his range, but he's still a middle-of-the-2nd tier defenders. And, Omar Vizquel's range has stayed the same or slightly diminished, but he's as sure handed as they come. If he gets to the ball, chances are he'll make a good decision.
So, I guess what I'm saying is that the meat of this are the offensive numbers, the rest is just the fixin's that are interesting to gander at.
I took BIG helps from both Justin Inaz and Dave (who's last name I don't know, I'll update it when I do find it out) and his U.S.S. Mariner blog. Both of those blogs are worth checking out even if you're not a fan of either team but still into statistical evaluation (Justin Inaz is a Reds fan and blogs on them).
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