Evaluating the Tigers through a Sabermetric lens

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Hunches Strikes Back: Who Needs This Prosperity?

I think what may just be the biggest downfall of the Detroit Tigers is going on the road. It's then when Jim Leyland makes the weirdest (read: dumbest) decisions. Maybe it's the comfy private jet travel you get with the Tigers or the comfy hotel rooms or just a belly food of some great restaurant food, but some very interesting decisions get made by Leyland on the road.

Whether it's his confusing moves back in Cleveland on June 5th last year in Cleveland where he went to the wrong relievers in the wrong spots and left Todd Jones out to dry, or May 13th in Kansas City where he yanked Nate Robertson with the lead after just 82 pitches when he was cruising, or May 28th when he yanked Jeremy Bonderman who was cruising out in Anaheim only to see the Tigers lose one of their what seem like endless numbers of walk-off losses.

Tonight, after the Tigers 8-6 loss in game one of a 3 game set in San Francisco, I sit here, again, confused. Senor Hunches watched Tim Lincecum (7 innings, 5 hits, 3 strikeouts, 3 walks, 2 home runs allowed) duel with Justin Verlander (6 innings, 5 hits, 7 strikeouts, 1 walk, 1 home run allowed) and had his hand forced in the 7th inning to pinch hit for Verlander with Edgar Renteria. It resulted in an RBI single that the Tigers benefited from a blown call from home plate umpire Tom Hallion who ruled the play safe, in the Tigers favor.

Then, in the bottom of the 7th, Uncle Jimmy went to Freddy Dolsi. He got through the 7th and in the 8th recorded one out before giving way for a pitcher to face the left handed John Bowker. So, in trots in Casey Fossum who's delivery and deception should be murder on a left handed hitter who already had 2 hits off the right-handed Verlander in the game, right?

Wrong.

In trots Fernando Rodney. What results next I'll just sum up as one walk, two doubles, and a 3-run homer that turned out to be the game winner. Oy vey.

Do I blame F-Rod? Yes. Afterall, he is throwing the pitch (hanging change up). Do I blame the pitch selection? No, his change up was looking good before the homer. Is this all his fault? No. Jim Leyland, paid to make decisions that put the Detroit Tigers in the best positions to win baseball games, failed, once again, to do just that. Casey Fossum is the right move. Yes, a strikeout would've been nice. However, you can also go with Fossum to get the LH Bowker, and then preferably a Zach Miner to face Rich Aurilia.

Then again, maybe we should've seen this coming. Jason Beck reported that Leyland wanted to hold off on using Rodney in a high pressure situation.


Fernando Rodney is available in the bullpen, though Jim Leyland said before the game that he'd like to ease him in with an outing before throwing him into setup duty in a close situation.


Yup. Jim Leyland, as shown by reneging on the comments that Marcus Thames is the everyday left fielder, that Carlos Guillen was going to get more time in left field and that Brandon Inge was going to get more time at 3rd base, that he's very non-committal to his word come game time. So, putting in Rodney in a high pressure situation for his first MLB appearance since October of 2007 is par for the course with the decisions Uncle Jimmy's made for the Tigers all year long.

Sunday, June 1, 2008

The Terrible Defense Tour, Sponsored by Jim Leyland, Coming Soon to a LF Near You!

Is that a lengthy title? Yeah. Is it appropriate? Absolutely.

Jim Leyland moved Carlos Guillen to Left Field today. Because, hey, who doesn't want someone moved off of the Shortstop position because of a terrible throwing arm and bum knees to start running down liners in the gap and throwing baseballs 350+ feet to home plate on occasion?

Or, maybe he's just looking out for your fantasy team where Guillen's knees don't hinder his value.

Or, maybe Jim Leyland is throwing darts at a dartboard filled with results and it finally skewered the "Panic Time" card.

I'll go with the latter. Which could also read: Jim Leyland has lost his freakin' mind.

Guillen caught 4 pop-flies in the Tigers 7-5 win against the Mariners which gave them the win in the Series up in Seattle -- which should have put them to 4 wins in 6 games, and back-to-back series wins, had Jim Leyland not screwed up Jeremy Bonderman's start in Anaheim or the Tigers not come up on the wrong end of an extra-innings pitching duel.

Instead, Senor Hunches has made this move despite giving the Left Field spot over to Marcus Thames. So, Thames if your everyday left-fielder, just not when Carlos Guillen is in Left Field, apparently. How that works, how many games Guillen gets in left while his 'Hoids problem still bothers him.

One thing for sure is that Inge will be the 3rd baseman when Guillen is in left, and will be Guillen's replacement defensively in the late game innings.

This just begs the question, however already posed by Billfer: Why not move Miguel Cabrera to left? He's got games under his belt at that position already and is an equally as shoddy defender as Guillen. Miggy is just as brutal in left as he is at 3rd base, however, his biggest asset in the field would finally be utilized: His throwing arm. He's got a very good arm and currently it's not being used at 1st base. His impact, negatively, of course, defensively would be hidden a bit in left field and it doesn't put the unnecessary strain on Guillen's knees which have sidelined him from the lineup in the past.

The other bit of news is that Dontrelle Willis and Armando Galarraga will be splitting time in the rotation. Willis will start the game, Galarraga will finish the game. This is pretty unorthodox and I cannot completely hate the out-of-the-box thinking on Leyland's part. There are few 603-year-old managers that would go to something so radical. Whether this yields positive results or not, it's yet to be seen. Also, what happens if Willis is dealing one day? Does he get yanked? Clearly, Hunches is not opposed to removing a pitcher with filthy stuff since he's done it twice in the month of May alone. And if he does leave in Willis or Galarraga -- whoever is the one that's dealing -- does he start the other the next turn through the rotation?

Galarraga's gotten hit kind of hard and he's been giving up more fly balls in his recent starts. Ideally you'd like your pitcher to strikeout as many hitters as possible, but if they do have the ball put in play, you'd prefer it to be ground balls over fly balls. So, he's showing signs of being a possible replacement-level, back-of-the-rotation/long man-type pitcher in his last couple of starts as the book on him starts to get around. But, his results have been good enough to not lose his spot, money aside, in the rotation. However, Willis isn't going to be a $29 million dollar relief pitcher. It's also worth noting that this appears to be a 1-game solution as Leyland stated that he won't be using this every 5th day -- burning two starters in the same game. So, it remains to be seen how that'll turn out.

I'll put my money on Armando Galarraga being out of the starting rotation within the next 3 turns through the rotation.