Tigers Defense ... Again

David Pinto has started unveiling his Probabilistic Model of Range data over at Baseball Musings. Basically he takes the data from Baseball Info Solutions and using some criteria winds up with some numbers that he releases to judge their defense/range.

So far, Pinto has released the data for Shortstops and for 2nd baseman. Using some simple conversions, we can turn this data into a runs total. Lets start with the Shortstop position since it was the most scrutinized amongst Tigers fans, and it was the first one that David released over at Baseball Musings.

The shortstop data included a total of 39 who qualified for this data. But before we get into the actual individual performances, let's look at how the Tigers did as a team, in comparison to the rest of the league:

Go to the shortstop link above to see the hard data, as I'm just going to be posting Team, Plays Made (where Plays Made are the Defensive Efficiency Ratio extrapolated out to the average number of balls in play for teams, which was 4,395), Predicted Plays Made (where you take the predicted DER and extrapolate it out ove 4,395), Difference between the two, and then, finally, Runs. I apologize in advance for my lack of chart-making skills. These are incredibly spaced out and I haven't fixed them, but hopefully you get the gist.

Team	Plays Made	Predicted	Difference	Runs
Brewers	558	532	26	20
Giants	510	488	22	17
Marlins	523	505	18	13
Angels	527	514	13	10
Cardinals	554	541	13	10
Red Sox	497	492	4	3
Phillies	558	554	4	3
Braves	567	563	4	3
Diamondbacks	488	483	4	3
Cubs	527	523	4	3
Astros	510	510	0	0
Athletics	488	488	0	0
Rangers	505	505	0	0
Dodgers	563	563	0	0
Indians	527	527	0	0
White Sox	545	545	0	0
Royals	505	505	0	0
Rays	505	505	0	0
Orioles	519	523	-4	-3
Rockies	567	571	-4	-3
Pirates	541	545	-4	-3
Blue Jays	497	501	-4	-3
Twins	549	558	-9	-7
Yankees	497	505	-9	-7
Nationals	523	536	-13	-10
Mariners	466	479	-13	-10
Padres	519	532	-13	-10
Reds	479	497	-18	-13
Tigers	501	527	-26	-20
Mets	505	532	-26	-20

Now, as we see, the Tigers had a lot of problems fielding the ball at Short this year. In a previous entry, I concluded that Edgar Renteria wasn't the main culprit (Ramon Santiago was very bad by my methods). But, being 20 runs in the bad is never good -- no matter the category. That equals out to roughly 2 wins worth.

Before we get to the individual numbers, a quick aside on the numbers. The runs totals are a bit skewed. To put everyone on an equal footing, I took their Defensive Efficiency Ratios that you can see on the link to the actual PMR stats (please, go check out Baseball Musings for support since David Pinto purchases this data and pays a fee to publicly put it online) and multiplied that by 4000. I do this becasue 4000 balls in play is roughly equal to 145-150 games played for an average fielder. To give an example, Marco Scutaro's DER was 0.128. You take the 0.128*4000 and get 512 plays made. He only made 173 on the season, but his pace was for about 512 if he played in 145-150 full games. You then take his Predicted DER which was 0.116*4000 and you get 464. Given the balls hit to him, he was on pace over the course of 145-150 games to field 464 of them. 512-464=48. You then plug the 48 into the 2B/SS conversions (the link posted way above at the top of this post) and get a runs total. Marco Scutaro actually made 16 more plays than predicted, since he was only in the field for 1352 balls in play. So, a lot of the guys at the top of the positions are guys with great rates, however, their actual defensive contributions were much lower than the runs totals below, but, if you extrapolated their defense out to a full season's worth of chances, this is what they were on pace to produce in the field.

So, how does PMR rate the individuals? Well...

Player	Plays Made	Predicted	Difference	Runs
Marco Scutaro	512	464	48	36.19344
Omar Vizquel	452	416	36	27.14508
Mike Aviles	476	444	32	24.12896
Maicer Izturis	464	444	20	15.0806
Jed Lowrie	432	412	20	15.0806
J.J. Hardy	500	484	16	12.06448
Erick Aybar	500	484	16	12.06448
Alex Cora	492	476	16	12.06448
Cesar Izturis	520	504	16	12.06448
Jack Wilson	512	496	16	12.06448
Bobby Crosby	452	440	12	9.04836
Jimmy Rollins	512	500	12	9.04836
Jason Bartlett	472	464	8	6.03224
Hanley Ramirez	472	464	8	6.03224
Juan Castro	460	452	8	6.03224
Luis Rodriguez	480	472	8	6.03224
Yunel Escobar	528	520	8	6.03224
Nick Punto	552	544	8	6.03224
Adam Everett	528	520	8	6.03224
Orlando Cabrera	500	496	4	3.01612
Ryan Theriot	472	468	4	3.01612
Miguel Tejada	464	464	0	0
Jhonny Peralta	472	472	0	0
Michael Young	468	468	0	0
Julio Lugo	444	448	-4	-3.01612
Angel Berroa	520	524	-4	-3.01612
Derek Jeter	448	456	-8	-6.03224
Stephen Drew	440	448	-8	-6.03224
Cristian Guzman	484	492	-8	-6.03224
Yuniesky Betancourt	428	440	-12	-9.04836
John McDonald	432	448	-16	-12.0645
Troy Tulowitzki	520	536	-16	-12.0645
Edgar Renteria	464	488	-24	-18.0967
Jose Reyes	456	480	-24	-18.0967
Khalil Greene	460	488	-28	-21.1128
Tony F Pena	440	468	-28	-21.1128
Brendan Harris	428	460	-32	-24.129
Jeff Keppinger	416	448	-32	-24.129
David Eckstein	412	452	-40	-30.1612

Here, we see Edgar Renteria is rated at -18.09 runs defensively, rounded to just -18. In my post in August about the Tigers Defense, I had Renteria at -5.56 runs. I updated all of my numbers (Here's that spread sheet [note: this spreadsheet link is NOT the PMR numbers]) and Edgar finished at -11 runs defensively. So, a difference of just 9 runs between my numbers and converting David Pinto's numbers to runs.

Well, the Shortstop position obviously needs an upgrade and that'll be something to look towards in a future post.

As for 2nd base, here's how the Tigers rated as a team:

Team	Plays Made	Predicted	Difference	Runs
Marlins	532	505	26	19.88377
Reds	510	488	22	16.56981
Diamondbacks	585	563	22	16.56981
Phillies	527	505	22	16.56981
Angels	549	536	13	9.941886
Cubs	527	514	13	9.941886
Rockies	545	536	9	6.627924
Indians	541	532	9	6.627924
Tigers	488	479	9	6.627924
Athletics	532	523	9	6.627924
Twins	488	483	4	3.313962
Blue Jays	554	549	4	3.313962
Brewers	514	510	4	3.313962
White Sox	532	532	0	0
Orioles	483	483	0	0
Yankees	563	563	0	0
Cardinals	492	497	-4	-3.31396
Red Sox	523	527	-4	-3.31396
Astros	475	479	-4	-3.31396
Mariners	585	593	-9	-6.62792
Royals	545	554	-9	-6.62792
Braves	527	536	-9	-6.62792
Pirates	440	448	-9	-6.62792
Rangers	505	514	-9	-6.62792
Nationals	461	470	-9	-6.62792
Giants	435	448	-13	-9.94189
Rays	488	505	-18	-13.2558
Mets	483	501	-18	-13.2558
Padres	470	497	-26	-19.8838
Dodgers	497	532	-35	-26.5117

The Tigers really picked it at the 2nd base position, helping to off-set the sub-par defensive play at shortstop, picking up 6.62 runs at 2B. However, that means the Tigers middle infield as a team wound up at -13, if you round the 6.62 runs up to 7 runs. That is not good, however, the middle infield "cost" the Tigers right around 1 win defensively.

As for individuals, the Tigers were obviously led by Placido Polanco. I had Polanco at the end of the year at +17.3 runs defensively, rounded to 17. How did he do in PMR? Well...

Player	Plays Made	Predicted	Difference	Runs
Adam Kennedy	484	444	40	30.1612
Mike Fontenot	484	444	40	30.1612
Marco Scutaro	536	508	28	21.11284
Emilio Bonifacio	396	368	28	21.11284
Chase Utley	484	460	24	18.09672
Howie Kendrick	528	504	24	18.09672
Dan Uggla	484	464	20	15.0806
Joe Inglett	528	508	20	15.0806
Placido Polanco	444	428	16	12.06448
Brandon Phillips	464	448	16	12.06448
Asdrubal Cabrera	516	500	16	12.06448
Juan Uribe	496	480	16	12.06448
Orlando Hudson	520	508	12	9.04836
Clint Barmes	480	468	12	9.04836
Mark Ellis	496	488	8	6.03224
Alexi Casilla	440	432	8	6.03224
Dustin Pedroia	480	476	4	3.01612
Rickie Weeks	452	448	4	3.01612
Brian Roberts	448	448	0	0
Robinson Cano	512	512	0	0
Jose Lopez	552	552	0	0
Kaz Matsui	428	428	0	0
Luis Castillo	428	428	0	0
Sean Rodriguez	484	484	0	0
Mark Loretta	464	464	0	0
Alexei Ramirez	480	484	-4	-3.01612
Mark Grudzielanek	516	520	-4	-3.01612
Tadahito Iguchi	444	448	-4	-3.01612
Freddy Sanchez	400	408	-8	-6.03224
Ian Kinsler	476	484	-8	-6.03224
Jamey Carroll	456	464	-8	-6.03224
Kelly Johnson	484	496	-12	-9.04836
Mark DeRosa	480	492	-12	-9.04836
Eugenio Velez	376	392	-16	-12.0645
Jeff Baker	472	492	-20	-15.0806
Akinori Iwamura	444	468	-24	-18.0967
Felipe Lopez	436	460	-24	-18.0967
Aaron Hill	476	500	-24	-18.0967
Ray Durham	392	424	-32	-24.129
Aaron Miles	440	472	-32	-24.129
Brendan Harris	396	428	-32	-24.129
Edgar Gonzalez	448	484	-36	-27.1451
Alberto Callaspo	452	488	-36	-27.1451
Damion Easley	424	464	-40	-30.1612
Jeff Kent	440	484	-44	-33.1773

Here we see Placido Polanco rates well, just like in my method. PMR converted to runs has Polanco at +12.06 runs defensively, rounded to 12 runs. So, my method and PMR differ by 5 runs -- not bad, if I say so myself.

So what can we conclude from these numbers? It would behoove the Tigers to improve the middle infield defense as a whole, namely the shortstop position. However, doing it at the cost of grabbing an all glove, no bat player is not a quality option as we're carrying two weak bats already with Brandon Inge at 3rd and Dusty Ryan and whatever veteran we pair with him behind the plate. However, someone like an Omar Vizquel for a late inning defensive sub (+8.54 runs in my methods, +12 runs of actual production this year via PMR converted to runs) wouldn't be a bad option to round out the bench. Though, it's more likely a reserve infielder will be Ramon Santiago or Ryan Raburn.