So, the Tigers acquired Jarrod Washburn today in the only move they made. I've already voiced my opinion on this trade both in the chat, at Bill's site, and on Beyond the Boxscore's comment section. Let me lay this out:
Luke French: young, cost-controlled lefty with average stuff pretty much across the board. His move to Triple-A Toledo this year led to a jump in K's and in overall performance. He's pitched to the tune of a 3.87 FIP in Detroit thus far and accrued 0.6 Wins Above Replacement in just 7 games (5 starts, but we'll go with games). Lets stretch that out to a potential 12 more starts as the Tigers have 62 games. Now, with off-days and some youngsters like Rick Porcello in the rotation, there'll be re-ordering in the rotation to help preserve Porcello's inning count for the year. But, let's run with the 12 starts and assume Luke French would stay in the rotation for those 12 starts his spot would get. 0.6 WAR in 7 games stretched to another 12 games would equal a total WAR of 1.6. that's below-average production, but if you stretch it out to a full season's worth, it's above-average in the neighborhood of 2.8 WAR.
Don't think French is a true 3.87 FIP-er? Okay, knock off half a win from that war. He's giving you 1 WAR this season at 20 years old in his rookie year. Not shabby. That's nearly $5 million in value.
Jarrod Washburn has a 3.75 FIP and has accrued 2.7 WAR in 20 starts. Stretched out over another 12 starts, he's roughly on pace for 4.3 WAR, or an additional 1.6 WAR. I don't think he'll maintain his current pace, but since he's an established big leaguer, lets just say he keeps his current pace up.
So, really, he's giving us likely half a win more than Luke French would give us. That is worth about $2.65 million on the open market.
However, it wasn't a one-for-one swap, as the "cost of upgrading" to Washburn's talent level over French as Bill put it, was an additional prospect: Mauricio Robles. Robles is a lefty who can sit in the low-to-middle 90's with a good breaking ball but is inconsistent. I don't think he'll be this generation of Tigers fans' John Smoltz, but he's a high upside/incredibly low-floor guy. He wasn't rated in the Tigers Top ten by John Sickels, so I can't put a value to him.
Now, Jarrod Washburn's contract runs out this year, but he's slotted to be a potential Type-B free agent. So, we can offer arbitration and if he turns it down, pick up a compensation round pick. But, like Dave Cameron noted in his write-up, it's very plausible that mid-30's pitcher coming off of his best season in over half-a-decade, very well could accept the arbitration. Given he made $10 million this year, that'll like mean a raise and likely mean $12-15 million salary for the 2010 season.
For a team with a payroll that's apparently strapped, I don't think we added much and, at best, it's a lateral move. I don't think it's the worst trade in a decade like Dave Cameron's article paints it, but I don't think it's a win like most Tigers bloggers and fans think, either.
Friday, July 31, 2009
Detroit Tigers Trade Deadline Chat
I will be joining Billfer, Kurt, Lee, Ian, and Big Al as a panelist in the Tigers Trade Deadline chat. You can chat here or at any of their respective (and great) sites.
Valuing Roy Halladay
Bill already beat me to this, but I was planning on taking a look at Roy Halladay's value versus the package we'd be giving up. The reported package asked for was Rick Porcello, Casey Crosby and Ryan Perry. Bill's got Halladay at possibly adding about 4 wins to the Tigers the rest of the way. Sky Kalkman's Trade Value Calculator had Halladay at 3 wins the rest of the way as of July 15th. He's estimated Halladay to be worth 6 Wins Above Replacement next year as well, so we'll run with that and say that Halladay will give about 9 WAR to whatever team he goes to if he's dealt before the deadline tomorrow. That's a value of $46.1 million. He makes $22.8 million over that time span, meaning he he has a net value of $23.4 million.
Victor Wang's done some great research on the value of prospects for the Hardball Times. Erik Manning's summarized the research into this table. Rick Porcello was the 7th rated pitcher (21st player overall) in Baseball America's preseason top 100 prospects. Research values that at $15.2 million in value. Casey Crosby is just 20-years-old until mid-September and was graded a C+ by John Sickels. That is valued at $2.1 million. Finally, Ryan Perry turned 22 in February, and John Sickels graded him at a solid B. That puts him at $7.3 million in value.
Total that all up, Porcello, Crosby, and Perry are valued at a collective $24.6 million. Given that Halladay's projected to provide about $23.4 million for the duration of his contract that runs through 2010, that's a very even deal.
But, here's the one drawback of the deal: Mike Ilitch and Dave Dombrowski said before the season that the payroll is pretty maxed out. Given that we haven't really shed any money and opened the season with a payroll of $115,085,145 million. In trading Porcello, Crosby, and Perry, we're not dumping more than a couple of league-minimum salaries and taking on board the full ~$7 million left this year on Halladay's salary plus the $15.8 he makes in 2010. I'm not sure the Tigers can add that type of money to the books without clearing something out first.
Speaking of money: the Tigers traded Josh Anderson to the Kansas City Royals for cash-money as Kurt dubbed it. Dayton Moore's certainly got a love-affair for bad OBP players with little to no power, huh? My condolences to Royals fans. Hopefully he isn't used as much and as poorly as Jim Leyland used him.
Victor Wang's done some great research on the value of prospects for the Hardball Times. Erik Manning's summarized the research into this table. Rick Porcello was the 7th rated pitcher (21st player overall) in Baseball America's preseason top 100 prospects. Research values that at $15.2 million in value. Casey Crosby is just 20-years-old until mid-September and was graded a C+ by John Sickels. That is valued at $2.1 million. Finally, Ryan Perry turned 22 in February, and John Sickels graded him at a solid B. That puts him at $7.3 million in value.
Total that all up, Porcello, Crosby, and Perry are valued at a collective $24.6 million. Given that Halladay's projected to provide about $23.4 million for the duration of his contract that runs through 2010, that's a very even deal.
But, here's the one drawback of the deal: Mike Ilitch and Dave Dombrowski said before the season that the payroll is pretty maxed out. Given that we haven't really shed any money and opened the season with a payroll of $115,085,145 million. In trading Porcello, Crosby, and Perry, we're not dumping more than a couple of league-minimum salaries and taking on board the full ~$7 million left this year on Halladay's salary plus the $15.8 he makes in 2010. I'm not sure the Tigers can add that type of money to the books without clearing something out first.
Speaking of money: the Tigers traded Josh Anderson to the Kansas City Royals for cash-money as Kurt dubbed it. Dayton Moore's certainly got a love-affair for bad OBP players with little to no power, huh? My condolences to Royals fans. Hopefully he isn't used as much and as poorly as Jim Leyland used him.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Revised Casey Fien Scouting Report
In the comments of my Casey Fien Scouting Report, Harry Pavlidis had some insight. Since he knows how to better classify pitches than myself, I heeded his advice and re-classified the pitches.
First, the strike zone plot:
The differences were that the "change-up" is actually a slider. Harry also said that he threw two four-seam fastballs (FF) and the rest of the heaters were of the two-seam variety (FT), while the rest were sliders. I've changed that.
The release points:
And now here are the pitch flights:
Hopefully, if I classified the wrong fastball's as four-seamers, Harry can correct me again. If not, I'll just compare the pitch flights to his New Arms of the Week post at Beyond the Boxscore.
First, the strike zone plot:
The differences were that the "change-up" is actually a slider. Harry also said that he threw two four-seam fastballs (FF) and the rest of the heaters were of the two-seam variety (FT), while the rest were sliders. I've changed that.The release points:
And now here are the pitch flights:
Hopefully, if I classified the wrong fastball's as four-seamers, Harry can correct me again. If not, I'll just compare the pitch flights to his New Arms of the Week post at Beyond the Boxscore.
Monday, July 27, 2009
What To Expect From Jeremy Bonderman (Graphs Galore)
There's been talk of Jeremy Bonderman possibly getting into the Detroit Tigers bullpen when he's ready to return to Major League action. First question is: Can he be effective? Second question is: what should we expect?
Well, to answer the first question, I figure we must look at some PITCHf/x data.
First, let's look at the average pitch flight for Bondo's pitches in 2008 (click all images to enlarge):
It gets a bit fuzzy to see, but his 2-seamer (FT; orange line) had absurd amounts of arm-side run -- also called "tailing action." His 4-seamer (FF; blue line) had less and both had okay downward movement -- he's not a big time ground ball pitcher, so we wouldn't expect great downward movment.
His slider (SL; red line) comes with sweeping action, but not a lot. The amount of drop he gets on it is what made it such a good swing-and-miss pitch. The first base view shows it leaving on the same layer as his fastballs, but it finishes at home plate at the closest to the ground. Just great diving action it as it falls off the table, if you will. His change-up (CH; white line) had some okay arm-side run and decent sink. It's what fans and the Tigers alike felt was his worst pitch, and I think I'd tend to agree with that.
Now, he's made one appearance in 2009 -- a start in a double-header against the White Sox in Chicago. Firstly, here's his strikezone plot:
Here's the pitch flights from that lone outing:
I can see some differences, but to make it an easier graph to read, I'm going to compare each of his pitches to their counterparts. Up first, a comparison of his 4-seam fastball from 2008 and 2009:
Here, we see that his 2008 4-seamer has more arm-side run on it, and a bit more sink. So, his 2009 version has less movement overall -- both tailing and diving action.
The difference on the 2-seam fastball is much more pronounced. He didn't throw many in his 2009 start, however, you can clearly see his 2008 2-seam fastball had a ton of arm-side run and okay sink, while his 2009 version is much less in both.
His 2009 change-up seems to have some more tailing action, but not much. The sinking action goes to his 2008 change-piece. So, it's gotten a little more flat, but it's still his worst pitch to throw.
The slider, also, seems to have lost a tick of sweep and some downward movement.
Conclusion
So, to answer the questions from before:
1) Can he be effective?
A: I don't know. My gut feeling is that his stuff doesn't look to be markedly better than the relievers we have in the bullpen at the moment. Then again, relievers are unpredictable and maybe there is lightning in a bottle to be had. An extra arm is never a bad thing, so long as they aren't over used if they're ineffective.
2) What should we expect?
A) Honestly, not much. The usual caveats apply: his 2009 sample is pretty small, but if they give any of the slightest indication, his stuff's obviously declined (and you don't need PITCHf/x data to tell you that). Unfortunately for Bonderman, the Tigers, and myself (been a staunch supporter and driver of the Jeremy Bonderman Will Turn The Corner This Year bandwagon), I don't think his stuff will make him a top-notch reliever in short bursts. I'm not so sure it even makes him better than a Brandon Lyon at this point.
Well, to answer the first question, I figure we must look at some PITCHf/x data.
First, let's look at the average pitch flight for Bondo's pitches in 2008 (click all images to enlarge):
It gets a bit fuzzy to see, but his 2-seamer (FT; orange line) had absurd amounts of arm-side run -- also called "tailing action." His 4-seamer (FF; blue line) had less and both had okay downward movement -- he's not a big time ground ball pitcher, so we wouldn't expect great downward movment.
His slider (SL; red line) comes with sweeping action, but not a lot. The amount of drop he gets on it is what made it such a good swing-and-miss pitch. The first base view shows it leaving on the same layer as his fastballs, but it finishes at home plate at the closest to the ground. Just great diving action it as it falls off the table, if you will. His change-up (CH; white line) had some okay arm-side run and decent sink. It's what fans and the Tigers alike felt was his worst pitch, and I think I'd tend to agree with that.
Now, he's made one appearance in 2009 -- a start in a double-header against the White Sox in Chicago. Firstly, here's his strikezone plot:
Here's the pitch flights from that lone outing:
I can see some differences, but to make it an easier graph to read, I'm going to compare each of his pitches to their counterparts. Up first, a comparison of his 4-seam fastball from 2008 and 2009:
Here, we see that his 2008 4-seamer has more arm-side run on it, and a bit more sink. So, his 2009 version has less movement overall -- both tailing and diving action.
The difference on the 2-seam fastball is much more pronounced. He didn't throw many in his 2009 start, however, you can clearly see his 2008 2-seam fastball had a ton of arm-side run and okay sink, while his 2009 version is much less in both.
His 2009 change-up seems to have some more tailing action, but not much. The sinking action goes to his 2008 change-piece. So, it's gotten a little more flat, but it's still his worst pitch to throw.
The slider, also, seems to have lost a tick of sweep and some downward movement.Conclusion
So, to answer the questions from before:
1) Can he be effective?
A: I don't know. My gut feeling is that his stuff doesn't look to be markedly better than the relievers we have in the bullpen at the moment. Then again, relievers are unpredictable and maybe there is lightning in a bottle to be had. An extra arm is never a bad thing, so long as they aren't over used if they're ineffective.
2) What should we expect?
A) Honestly, not much. The usual caveats apply: his 2009 sample is pretty small, but if they give any of the slightest indication, his stuff's obviously declined (and you don't need PITCHf/x data to tell you that). Unfortunately for Bonderman, the Tigers, and myself (been a staunch supporter and driver of the Jeremy Bonderman Will Turn The Corner This Year bandwagon), I don't think his stuff will make him a top-notch reliever in short bursts. I'm not so sure it even makes him better than a Brandon Lyon at this point.
Scouting Casey Fien With PITCHf/x
Detroit Tigers newly called up reliever Casey Fien made his major league debut tonight against the Chicago White Sox. First, here's a look at him by the numbers:
2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 29 pitches, 17 strikes, 2 ground outs, 3 fly outs.
And now, the release points (click all images to enlarge):
Fien is releasing the baseball at a shade under 6-feet high on average. Given his 6-foot-2 frame, he's got a bit of a 3/4 delivery (unfortunately, I didn't get to see him pitch tonight as I was out with friends that aren't baseball fans -- yeah, yeah, I know. There are some of those types of people that do exist. Blows my mind, as well).
The strike zone plot:
As I stated earlier, he threw 17 of his 29 pitches for strikes.
And now the pitch flight graphs (presented by Harry Pavlidis' pitch flight generator -- I know he seems like he sponsors this blog, but I assure you that he doesn't!):
I debated on whether I should graph the change-up since it was the only one that he threw and there's nothing to be gained of a pitch so far out of the strike zone. Obviously, I elected to graph it. From this, his fastball seems pretty flat and straight, though we are working with just a 22-pitch sample. He averaged just under 92 MPH on the heater (91.6, to be exact) while his six slider's clocked in at an average of 80 MPH. I like the breaking ball more than the fastball. It's got a bit of sweeping action (bird's eye view) and good downward movement (1st base view). The pitch flight graph doesn't scream "electric stuff" but that doesn't mean much given he's just now getting to the majors and hasn't had overly eye-popping numbers in the minors.
Speaking of his minor league numbers, here's what you should expect from Fien moving forward, if he sticks in the Tigers bullpen:
-Not a lot of grounders. He's consistently been in the 30% range.
-Few walks as he's usually been around 4-6% of batters faced getting a free pass
-Good strikeout totals. Hovering around 27-30% in his various stops of the minor leagues.
I'd expect his strikeout percentage to drop with his move to the major leagues -- elite level relievers K upwards of 27% in the bigs and Fien is not that, but he's definitely a potentially solid arm out of the bullpen. The type of arm that can earn a man a good living without all of the accolades. Good 7th or 8th inning guy who should be around 20-22% K's and low BB totals out of the pen. How nice does "low walk totals" and "out of the 'pen" sound for a Detroit Tigers relief pitcher description? So, so nice.
2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 29 pitches, 17 strikes, 2 ground outs, 3 fly outs.
And now, the release points (click all images to enlarge):
Fien is releasing the baseball at a shade under 6-feet high on average. Given his 6-foot-2 frame, he's got a bit of a 3/4 delivery (unfortunately, I didn't get to see him pitch tonight as I was out with friends that aren't baseball fans -- yeah, yeah, I know. There are some of those types of people that do exist. Blows my mind, as well).The strike zone plot:
As I stated earlier, he threw 17 of his 29 pitches for strikes.And now the pitch flight graphs (presented by Harry Pavlidis' pitch flight generator -- I know he seems like he sponsors this blog, but I assure you that he doesn't!):
I debated on whether I should graph the change-up since it was the only one that he threw and there's nothing to be gained of a pitch so far out of the strike zone. Obviously, I elected to graph it. From this, his fastball seems pretty flat and straight, though we are working with just a 22-pitch sample. He averaged just under 92 MPH on the heater (91.6, to be exact) while his six slider's clocked in at an average of 80 MPH. I like the breaking ball more than the fastball. It's got a bit of sweeping action (bird's eye view) and good downward movement (1st base view). The pitch flight graph doesn't scream "electric stuff" but that doesn't mean much given he's just now getting to the majors and hasn't had overly eye-popping numbers in the minors.
Speaking of his minor league numbers, here's what you should expect from Fien moving forward, if he sticks in the Tigers bullpen:
-Not a lot of grounders. He's consistently been in the 30% range.
-Few walks as he's usually been around 4-6% of batters faced getting a free pass
-Good strikeout totals. Hovering around 27-30% in his various stops of the minor leagues.
I'd expect his strikeout percentage to drop with his move to the major leagues -- elite level relievers K upwards of 27% in the bigs and Fien is not that, but he's definitely a potentially solid arm out of the bullpen. The type of arm that can earn a man a good living without all of the accolades. Good 7th or 8th inning guy who should be around 20-22% K's and low BB totals out of the pen. How nice does "low walk totals" and "out of the 'pen" sound for a Detroit Tigers relief pitcher description? So, so nice.
Friday, July 24, 2009
Scouting Eddie Bonine's Average-ness
With Eddie Bonine set to start the night cap of the double header against the Chicago White Sox in about an hour, I figured it'd be a good time to remind everyone (and give myself a chance to play around with the Pitch Flight Generator that Harry Pavlidis has provided us) about Bonine's arsenal through PITCHf/x. Click all images to enlarge.
Release Points
He seems to have a relatively consistent release point on all of his pitches. Axis' are in feet and from the catcher's view.
And now the pitch flight graphs:
The Fastball -- He threw 293 of them over the course of 2008 and his 4 appearances this year. He averaged just 88.5 MPH on it. There is some arm-side movement, but not much sink. Overall, decent, I would say.
The Change-up -- He threw 94 of them and averaged 81.9 MPH. It follows his fastball flight path pretty closely. Nearly the same arm-side run (bird's eye view) and bit more sinking action (1st base view). Not a great pitch and seems pretty bland.
The Curveball -- Bonine tossed just 35 of them and averaged 80.2 MPH. Pretty 12-6 and has the most downward movement of any pitch he throws. I think this slower breaking ball might be his best one.
The Slider -- He threw 101 of them an averaged 81.0 MPH on them. There's some sweep on it, but not much. There is some sinking action, but not much. I would say it's decent, but not great by any stretch of the imagination.
Conclusion
Eddie Bonine is a Quad-A pitcher and this is confirmed by his incredibly average looking pitch flight graph. He walks very few batters and strikes out few as well. He's a pitch-to-contact type guy that's organizational filler (not that there's anything wrong with that at all) who can toss a good game in there from time-to-time and fill in when you're in a pinch. You know, like the back-end of a double header while your team has been struggling and on the verge of dropping out of the division lead.
Hopefully Bonine follows up Justin Verlander's great start in the first half of the double-dip.
Release Points
He seems to have a relatively consistent release point on all of his pitches. Axis' are in feet and from the catcher's view.And now the pitch flight graphs:
The Fastball -- He threw 293 of them over the course of 2008 and his 4 appearances this year. He averaged just 88.5 MPH on it. There is some arm-side movement, but not much sink. Overall, decent, I would say.The Change-up -- He threw 94 of them and averaged 81.9 MPH. It follows his fastball flight path pretty closely. Nearly the same arm-side run (bird's eye view) and bit more sinking action (1st base view). Not a great pitch and seems pretty bland.
The Curveball -- Bonine tossed just 35 of them and averaged 80.2 MPH. Pretty 12-6 and has the most downward movement of any pitch he throws. I think this slower breaking ball might be his best one.
The Slider -- He threw 101 of them an averaged 81.0 MPH on them. There's some sweep on it, but not much. There is some sinking action, but not much. I would say it's decent, but not great by any stretch of the imagination.
Conclusion
Eddie Bonine is a Quad-A pitcher and this is confirmed by his incredibly average looking pitch flight graph. He walks very few batters and strikes out few as well. He's a pitch-to-contact type guy that's organizational filler (not that there's anything wrong with that at all) who can toss a good game in there from time-to-time and fill in when you're in a pinch. You know, like the back-end of a double header while your team has been struggling and on the verge of dropping out of the division lead.
Hopefully Bonine follows up Justin Verlander's great start in the first half of the double-dip.
Is Carlos Guillen An Upgrade Over Josh Anderson?
Carlos Guillen was called up from Triple-A Toledo and Josh Anderson got designated for assignment. My first reaction is "yes!" However, my second reaction is: is this really an upgrade?
The Tigers are struggling to score runs. We all know that frustration. But, how much does Carlos Guillen help that? Add in that he can't even bat right handed and he won't be playing in the outfield (but that's fine -- he's bad out there anyways), is he really all that helpful?
Josh Anderson's been bad at the plate this year -- just downright terrible to the tune of -7.1 runs offensively. However, he's counteracted that by being worth 7.1 runs defensively, and that makes him pretty much a replacement level baseball player.
Now, Carlos Guillen's going to be a platooning designated hitter. If there's a position that a team shouldn't have to be platooning at, it's probably DH. You don't need to look at defense, you just need a guy that can mash -- and there's plenty of all-bat, no-glove baseball players. Is one with a bum shoulder, coming off a season that was his worst since coming to Detroit, unable to utilize his switch-hitting abilities at the moment, and is going to be 34 in September really an answer to our offensive woes?
To me, this is a move that reeks of desperation. I know we need to score runs. I mean, 4 out of 5 losses being 2-1 is beyond ridiculous and incredibly frustrating. That said, Josh Anderson was making the league minimum so he wasn't even being over paid for his role or for his production.
Billfer already said this, but the offense will rebound -- teams don't just score that few runs that often in a sustainable fashion. It, also, will have to rebound due to the guys currently on the roster -- Curtis Granderson, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Raburn, etc etc all have room for improvement.
There are trades that could be explored. Is Andy Marte and his .329/.366/.591 line in Triple-A Columbus for Cleveland available? I don't know what it'd take to pry him away or if Mark Shapiro's thinking of swapping him out for Jhonny Peralta, but it's an option that I think should be explored at some point.
If you want to stay in-house, how about Jeff Larish or Wilkin Ramirez again?
This move feels like an act of desperation with probably little return. Like swapping out salad fork for a bigger, more expensive dinner fork.
The Tigers are struggling to score runs. We all know that frustration. But, how much does Carlos Guillen help that? Add in that he can't even bat right handed and he won't be playing in the outfield (but that's fine -- he's bad out there anyways), is he really all that helpful?
Josh Anderson's been bad at the plate this year -- just downright terrible to the tune of -7.1 runs offensively. However, he's counteracted that by being worth 7.1 runs defensively, and that makes him pretty much a replacement level baseball player.
Now, Carlos Guillen's going to be a platooning designated hitter. If there's a position that a team shouldn't have to be platooning at, it's probably DH. You don't need to look at defense, you just need a guy that can mash -- and there's plenty of all-bat, no-glove baseball players. Is one with a bum shoulder, coming off a season that was his worst since coming to Detroit, unable to utilize his switch-hitting abilities at the moment, and is going to be 34 in September really an answer to our offensive woes?
To me, this is a move that reeks of desperation. I know we need to score runs. I mean, 4 out of 5 losses being 2-1 is beyond ridiculous and incredibly frustrating. That said, Josh Anderson was making the league minimum so he wasn't even being over paid for his role or for his production.
Billfer already said this, but the offense will rebound -- teams don't just score that few runs that often in a sustainable fashion. It, also, will have to rebound due to the guys currently on the roster -- Curtis Granderson, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Raburn, etc etc all have room for improvement.
There are trades that could be explored. Is Andy Marte and his .329/.366/.591 line in Triple-A Columbus for Cleveland available? I don't know what it'd take to pry him away or if Mark Shapiro's thinking of swapping him out for Jhonny Peralta, but it's an option that I think should be explored at some point.
If you want to stay in-house, how about Jeff Larish or Wilkin Ramirez again?
This move feels like an act of desperation with probably little return. Like swapping out salad fork for a bigger, more expensive dinner fork.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
The 1,000,001st Steroids Rant
The steroids discussion has been beat to death by more bloggers, journalists, and fans than I could ever attempt to link to. But, this one is going to be a special one -- one dedicated to the dearest Bill Plaschke.
See, Bill has been the most ardent anti-Manny voice in the entire universe after his drug bust and subsequent suspension. He's such a man of character, such a man of integrity, and such a man composed of all the good qualities that Manny Ramirez does not have, that he even avoided going to Manny's minor league rehab outings.
That Bill Plaschke. He's the man parents dream their sons will be. Forget Derek Jeter or Michael Jordan or Peyton Manning -- nope. A man so noble, so virtuous, so forthright and honest, is what you raise your son to be. Essentially, you're raising your child to be Mr. Bill Plaschke.
But, a funny thing happened to Captain Integrity: he did follow Manny around the minor leagues. In fact, it was just 3 days and 2 hours after staunchly saying he wouldn't follow around such a cheat.
And then, there's the articles, a few of them, ripping Manny for not greeting Mannywood, for not showing public remorse for his "cheating," and then he followed him around the minors some more. You know, to be the voice of the fans that don't find Manny Ramirez loveable and don't approve of his cheating ways.
But there wasn't any fans to be found that were Dodger fans and ready to heckle and boo him unmercifully. Not in the minor league rehab stops, not in his return, not in the Dodgers series against the Padres, not anywhere.
Maybe I am wrong on this, but is a part of sports writing -- especially the kind that Plaschke pens -- voicing the opinions and voices that the average fan doesn't have the platform to voice? If so, what is he rambling on so much and so long about? The fans do not care. I don't know how many times a player has to be caught and do their time and get lauded with praise and cheers every time they step back on their home field by ticket paying customers for sports writers to finally understand that the steroid problem is only something that they've created.
The players don't care, or at least the majority don't. If they did, they would've gotten the majority of the union to be in favor of stopping it.
The fans don't care or else they would stop paying the salaries of such cheats by attending games, buying their jerseys, buying team hats and baseballs and baseball bats and posters.
The journalists -- the same ones who have bestowed upon themselves the ability to choose who is in (and not in) the Baseball Hall of Fame -- are the only ones that care. And that's been proven time and time again.
But, then Bill Plaschke trips into another puddle of hypocrisy with his twitter account again. Not only is he not going to attend Manny's rehabs by attending them, he's also going to continue chastising him by praising him for his pinch-hit grand slam tonight by, and I'm quoting directly from Bill's mouth:
My favorite was this one:
How does someone who clearly is not immune to immense hypocrisy and being a casual fan, and thus, doesn't care about cheats and steroid users (abusers) get to play such bullhorn for the moral fabric of sports? And, does that man lose his right to be the bullhorn for the moral fabric upon which sports is built, when he displays the same inconsistency and propensity for not caring about who injected what when that player wins a game for their favorite team?
See, Bill has been the most ardent anti-Manny voice in the entire universe after his drug bust and subsequent suspension. He's such a man of character, such a man of integrity, and such a man composed of all the good qualities that Manny Ramirez does not have, that he even avoided going to Manny's minor league rehab outings.
That Bill Plaschke. He's the man parents dream their sons will be. Forget Derek Jeter or Michael Jordan or Peyton Manning -- nope. A man so noble, so virtuous, so forthright and honest, is what you raise your son to be. Essentially, you're raising your child to be Mr. Bill Plaschke.
But, a funny thing happened to Captain Integrity: he did follow Manny around the minor leagues. In fact, it was just 3 days and 2 hours after staunchly saying he wouldn't follow around such a cheat.
And then, there's the articles, a few of them, ripping Manny for not greeting Mannywood, for not showing public remorse for his "cheating," and then he followed him around the minors some more. You know, to be the voice of the fans that don't find Manny Ramirez loveable and don't approve of his cheating ways.
But there wasn't any fans to be found that were Dodger fans and ready to heckle and boo him unmercifully. Not in the minor league rehab stops, not in his return, not in the Dodgers series against the Padres, not anywhere.
Maybe I am wrong on this, but is a part of sports writing -- especially the kind that Plaschke pens -- voicing the opinions and voices that the average fan doesn't have the platform to voice? If so, what is he rambling on so much and so long about? The fans do not care. I don't know how many times a player has to be caught and do their time and get lauded with praise and cheers every time they step back on their home field by ticket paying customers for sports writers to finally understand that the steroid problem is only something that they've created.
The players don't care, or at least the majority don't. If they did, they would've gotten the majority of the union to be in favor of stopping it.
The fans don't care or else they would stop paying the salaries of such cheats by attending games, buying their jerseys, buying team hats and baseballs and baseball bats and posters.
The journalists -- the same ones who have bestowed upon themselves the ability to choose who is in (and not in) the Baseball Hall of Fame -- are the only ones that care. And that's been proven time and time again.
But, then Bill Plaschke trips into another puddle of hypocrisy with his twitter account again. Not only is he not going to attend Manny's rehabs by attending them, he's also going to continue chastising him by praising him for his pinch-hit grand slam tonight by, and I'm quoting directly from Bill's mouth:
FIRST PITCH GRAND SLAM!!!OMG!!!!Yeah. He goes on and on and on and on and on and on and on about it. And why does he do that? Because he is a fan. Because he's just a guy who loves baseball and sports and the dramatics of it.
My favorite was this one:
Just left dodger clubhouse...casey blake was dancing...that's all you need to know..a special night...he's still a cheat but, well, omg..Emphasis mine. Yup. He's a cheat, but, well, let's forget all about that and shower him with love and adoration for what could be a "defining moment" of the Los Angeles Dodgers season. You know, just like all of the fans who showered him with love and adoration on his minor league rehab stops, his first stop back in the bigs, and his first stop back in L.A. after his drug suspension. The same people with the same reaction you had tonight, yet those people were enablers and were chastised by Bill on Around the Horn and in print.
How does someone who clearly is not immune to immense hypocrisy and being a casual fan, and thus, doesn't care about cheats and steroid users (abusers) get to play such bullhorn for the moral fabric of sports? And, does that man lose his right to be the bullhorn for the moral fabric upon which sports is built, when he displays the same inconsistency and propensity for not caring about who injected what when that player wins a game for their favorite team?
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Joel Zumaya Injury Is The End
So Tom Gage breaks the news the other day that Joel Zumaya's shoulder popped on him, but he kept-on a-pitchin'. While I admire the determination and whatnot, but athletes need to realize that them playing through injuries do not help teams. Joel definitely 'gutted' it out against the Yankees, but he shouldn't have. This mentality is counter-intuitive as guys want to win and there's the whole macho-element of it, but pitching through pain doesn't help the team win and then you (likely) will have to go under the knife.
When Joel hurt his shoulder a couple of years ago, I thought that there was no way it wouldn't get hurt again. He brings his elbow way above his shoulder which puts unnecessary strain on his shoulder and arm. He's violent in his deliver and anyone throwing as hard as he does is an injury risk regardless of mechanics -- the human arm is not built to throw a baseball 100 MPH.
I lamented back in early July that Zumaya's control problems aren't helping the ball club. It's possible he was hurt back then (here's Lee's diary of his outings), but even if he was, that doesn't undo all of the outings in which he wasn't hurt and still walking people. He's never been able to not walk hitters and as a reliever, that's one of the worst things you can falter with.
For now, it'll be rehabilitation but the notion that he'll ever be an effective reliever for the Detroit Tigers (I'd argue in baseball, though) is pretty much done. His mechanics, velocity, and injury history all suggest that his body is not able to hold up to the constant strain. Add into that that he's not effective, and you've got a remedy to a sad end.
At least we'll have his 2006 run to remember him by. He's a fan favorite because of that, and he should remain that way. Almost in the same way as The Bird was loved by all Tigers fans old enough to remember him despite flaming out all-too-quick.
Side note: my computer needs to be replaced, so I'm on a backup at the moment and don't know when I'll get my main one back. So I cannot do the Hardball Times fielding numbers at the moment. That series will resume at some point, though. It's fun (to me, at least).
When Joel hurt his shoulder a couple of years ago, I thought that there was no way it wouldn't get hurt again. He brings his elbow way above his shoulder which puts unnecessary strain on his shoulder and arm. He's violent in his deliver and anyone throwing as hard as he does is an injury risk regardless of mechanics -- the human arm is not built to throw a baseball 100 MPH.
I lamented back in early July that Zumaya's control problems aren't helping the ball club. It's possible he was hurt back then (here's Lee's diary of his outings), but even if he was, that doesn't undo all of the outings in which he wasn't hurt and still walking people. He's never been able to not walk hitters and as a reliever, that's one of the worst things you can falter with.
For now, it'll be rehabilitation but the notion that he'll ever be an effective reliever for the Detroit Tigers (I'd argue in baseball, though) is pretty much done. His mechanics, velocity, and injury history all suggest that his body is not able to hold up to the constant strain. Add into that that he's not effective, and you've got a remedy to a sad end.
At least we'll have his 2006 run to remember him by. He's a fan favorite because of that, and he should remain that way. Almost in the same way as The Bird was loved by all Tigers fans old enough to remember him despite flaming out all-too-quick.
Side note: my computer needs to be replaced, so I'm on a backup at the moment and don't know when I'll get my main one back. So I cannot do the Hardball Times fielding numbers at the moment. That series will resume at some point, though. It's fun (to me, at least).
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Clearing Up Magglio Ordonez's Option Years
In the comments of one of my last posts, John B., appeared to have some confusion over Magglio's options years and I think I can word it better than I had previously.
Magg's contract runs out after this year. He has options for the 2010 ($18 million) and 2011 ($15 million) seasons -- both of which are club-options. However, the option years can be guaranteed if he reaches a couple of benchmarks via the wording in his deal.
The 2010 option automatically triggers if:
-He accumulates 135 starts OR 540 plate appearances in 2009.
Or
-He accumulates 170 starts OR 1080 plate appearances in 2008 and 2009 combined.
The 2011 option automatically triggers if:
-He accumulates 135 starts OR 540 plate appearances in 2010.
Or
-He accumulates 270 starts OR 1080 plate appearances in both 2010 and 2011.
In 2008 he had 144 starts and 623 PA's.
In 2009 he has 70 starts and 294 PA's.
I'm no mathematician, but by my count, he's at 214 starts and 917 PA's over the last two years. For his option for 2010 to trigger, he must have one of the following two:
53 starts in the final 79 games of the season to reach 270 starts in 08-09 or accumulate 163 PA's to reach 1080 over 08-09.
Thus far, he's averaged 4.14 PA's per game. With his 1st half participation (53 starts in 83 games) and you assume no pinch hits, he'd be on pace for 50 more games and 207 plate appearances.
However, he's apparently going to platoon with Clete Thomas. I don't believe that this situation will continue the entire 2nd half because, well, Jim Leyland manages the ball club. But, we faced 28 left-handed starters in the 1st half out of 83 games -- about 1 in every 3 games. If that rate stays the same (we faced 48 left-handed starters in 2008 which was about 30% of the time), then we should face another 27 lefty starters. At 4.14 PA's per game for Magglio, and assuming he only plays against left-handed starters, you can assume around 112 more plate appearances for the 2nd half.
That would put him at a total of 406 plate appearances in 2009. Remember, he only needed 163 more PA's in the 2nd half to reach the 1080 PA plateau to trigger his option for 2010, automatically. that would leave him about 51 PA's short of automatically triggering his 2010 option.
Magg's contract runs out after this year. He has options for the 2010 ($18 million) and 2011 ($15 million) seasons -- both of which are club-options. However, the option years can be guaranteed if he reaches a couple of benchmarks via the wording in his deal.
The 2010 option automatically triggers if:
-He accumulates 135 starts OR 540 plate appearances in 2009.
Or
-He accumulates 170 starts OR 1080 plate appearances in 2008 and 2009 combined.
The 2011 option automatically triggers if:
-He accumulates 135 starts OR 540 plate appearances in 2010.
Or
-He accumulates 270 starts OR 1080 plate appearances in both 2010 and 2011.
In 2008 he had 144 starts and 623 PA's.
In 2009 he has 70 starts and 294 PA's.
I'm no mathematician, but by my count, he's at 214 starts and 917 PA's over the last two years. For his option for 2010 to trigger, he must have one of the following two:
53 starts in the final 79 games of the season to reach 270 starts in 08-09 or accumulate 163 PA's to reach 1080 over 08-09.
Thus far, he's averaged 4.14 PA's per game. With his 1st half participation (53 starts in 83 games) and you assume no pinch hits, he'd be on pace for 50 more games and 207 plate appearances.
However, he's apparently going to platoon with Clete Thomas. I don't believe that this situation will continue the entire 2nd half because, well, Jim Leyland manages the ball club. But, we faced 28 left-handed starters in the 1st half out of 83 games -- about 1 in every 3 games. If that rate stays the same (we faced 48 left-handed starters in 2008 which was about 30% of the time), then we should face another 27 lefty starters. At 4.14 PA's per game for Magglio, and assuming he only plays against left-handed starters, you can assume around 112 more plate appearances for the 2nd half.
That would put him at a total of 406 plate appearances in 2009. Remember, he only needed 163 more PA's in the 2nd half to reach the 1080 PA plateau to trigger his option for 2010, automatically. that would leave him about 51 PA's short of automatically triggering his 2010 option.
Monday, July 13, 2009
The Hardball Times Fielding: 3rd base
In my third part of the series of turning defensive data from The Hardball Times into a runs value moves over to the Hot Corner.
First, team leaders:
Chone Figgins has really been a stud for the Angels this year. Detroit comes in at 6th and you know that's a big thanks to the pickin' and grinnin' of Brandon Inge.
Individual top/bottom 5:
Oh, look. That old Tigers killer, Joe Crede up there. Still as good as ever with the mitt. Think Kenny Williams is hating life after giving up Crede to free agency so he could give Josh Fields the chance to shine? Fields is at -0.6 WAR this year, while Joe Crede's posted 2.1 WAR already. Maybe the attendance issues for the White Sox could be solved with, you know, better players? Worth noting that the Mariners recently picked up Jack Hannahan to replace Adrian Beltre who is out until Mid-August with a right shoulder injury. Hannahan's a former Detroit Tiger farm hand who was dealt to Oakland for Jason Perry. Perry is a minor leaguer who was a 6th round draft pick by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2002. He was then dealt to Oakland to complete an earlier trade between the two clubs. We then released him March 28th, 2008.
So, to recap: we gave up a Jack Hannahan who's defense has made him a total 3 WAR player over the course of the last 3 seasons for a guy we ended up releasing. Yikes. Obviously it's not a big deal with Gerald Laird gunning down every potential baserunner in sight so Brandon Inge can gobble everything up at 3rd, but these are the types of shrewd moves that the Billy Beane's of the world make that the Dave Dombrowski's of the world don't.
Oh, and apparently moving Jhonny Peralta off the shortstop position didn't really do anything for the Indians via this metric. Then again, Brandon Inge was also a negative fielder at 3rd in his first season there. Peralta, though, isn't as athletic as Inge.
First, team leaders:
| Team | 3B |
| LAA | 19 |
| MIN | 18 |
| WAS | 17 |
| OAK | 14 |
| SEA | 13 |
| DET | 13 |
| TOR | 13 |
| LAN | 6 |
| MIL | 4 |
| ATL | 3 |
| COL | 2 |
| HOU | 2 |
| NYN | 1 |
| TB | 0 |
| SF | -1 |
| PIT | -2 |
| ARI | -2 |
| STL | -3 |
| KC | -6 |
| CHN | -6 |
| SD | -6 |
| FLA | -7 |
| CIN | -7 |
| BAL | -9 |
| CLE | -9 |
| PHI | -10 |
| TEX | -12 |
| NYA | -13 |
| CHA | -16 |
| BOS | -17 |
Chone Figgins has really been a stud for the Angels this year. Detroit comes in at 6th and you know that's a big thanks to the pickin' and grinnin' of Brandon Inge.
Individual top/bottom 5:
| Last | First | Tm | Runs |
| Figgins | Chone | LAA | 18 |
| Zimmerman | Ryan W | WAS | 17 |
| Crede | Joe | MIN | 16 |
| Hannahan | Jack | OAK | 15 |
| Inge | Brandon | DET | 13 |
| Peralta | Jhonny | CLE | -10 |
| Fields | Josh | CHA | -11 |
| Feliz | Pedro | PHI | -12 |
| Young | Michael | TEX | -14 |
| Lowell | Mike | BOS | -15 |
Oh, look. That old Tigers killer, Joe Crede up there. Still as good as ever with the mitt. Think Kenny Williams is hating life after giving up Crede to free agency so he could give Josh Fields the chance to shine? Fields is at -0.6 WAR this year, while Joe Crede's posted 2.1 WAR already. Maybe the attendance issues for the White Sox could be solved with, you know, better players? Worth noting that the Mariners recently picked up Jack Hannahan to replace Adrian Beltre who is out until Mid-August with a right shoulder injury. Hannahan's a former Detroit Tiger farm hand who was dealt to Oakland for Jason Perry. Perry is a minor leaguer who was a 6th round draft pick by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2002. He was then dealt to Oakland to complete an earlier trade between the two clubs. We then released him March 28th, 2008.
So, to recap: we gave up a Jack Hannahan who's defense has made him a total 3 WAR player over the course of the last 3 seasons for a guy we ended up releasing. Yikes. Obviously it's not a big deal with Gerald Laird gunning down every potential baserunner in sight so Brandon Inge can gobble everything up at 3rd, but these are the types of shrewd moves that the Billy Beane's of the world make that the Dave Dombrowski's of the world don't.
Oh, and apparently moving Jhonny Peralta off the shortstop position didn't really do anything for the Indians via this metric. Then again, Brandon Inge was also a negative fielder at 3rd in his first season there. Peralta, though, isn't as athletic as Inge.
Magglio Ordonez 2010 Option; Move Inge to Short?
So, Eddie from Tigers-Thoughts has updated his Elias Rankings for MLB Trade Rumors. Here's the list.
Magglio Ordonez just might be the most interesting Tigers-related story in the second half of this 2009 season. I know, the whole division title thing is intriguing to, but he's getting platooned now with Clete Thomas. How long that lasts is up to Jim Leyland and his lineups change as often and he runs out of lighter fluid, so who knows if it'll be that way for very long after the all-star break. Bill pointed out that if he were platooned and the Tigers faced the same rate of left-handed pitchers, Magglio would end up 60-70 plate appearances shy of vesting his club-option for the 2010 season:
But it gets a bit more complicated than just plate appearances. He can get his option to be automatically picked up if he has 270 games started OR 1080 PA's over the course of 2008 and 2009. Currently, he's sitting at 214 starts and 917 PA's.
For the option to be automatically picked up, he would need 163 PA's or just 29 more starts in the 2nd half. How likely is it that we face 29 left-handers in the next few months? We faced 27 in the first half of 2009.
Me thinks that the Magglio 2010 option will get picked up. And the option for 2011 will be hingent on the same requirements: 270 stars or 1080 PA's from 2009-2010. Magglio will be in Detroit, barring a trade or big time injury, for the duration of his contract.
Other Tigers:
Placido Polanco's currently sitting as a Type-B free agent. I am not in favor of letting him go. He's still playing great defense (according to UZR) and he's been the 12th most valuable player manning the keystone corner this year. Couple that with the fact that I don't think Scott Sizemore is a long-term answer at 2nd base, and I think a 2-year deal after this season would be best. Even include an option for a 3rd year and I'd be content with that, too.
Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon are both Type-B free agents. I say, try to pick up the draft picks for both. I'm a huge proponent of building a bullpen as cheaply as possible. There's got to be players who can be just as frustrating as Joel Zumaya and Rodney have been in their tenures here, and do it for a fraction of the cost.
Off the wall solution for the 2010 season:
Adam Everett is a free agent at the end of this year. He'll likely get a raise where ever he goes -- we got him on the cheap because fielding's underrated and he was coming off an injury plagued couple of seasons. This leaves a hole that I do not want Ramon Santiago to fill on his own. Here's where I come at you with some outside-the-box thinking: Brandon Inge to shortstop, Adrian Beltre to 3rd base.
If we let one of our Type -B free agents that walk at the end of the year (Rodney, Lyon?), we can essentially trade those picks for Adrian Beltre. Beltre's hurt and I believe out for the season. So he'll only drop on this list of Type-A/B free agents and he's currently a Type-B. We can sign a Type-B and let a Type-B walk and those picks will cancel them out.
Follow me here. Inge is +37 in his career in runs saved at the hot corner. Lets say he finishes this season by saving a couple of more runs and gets to +10 runs saved defensively this season. His contributions would be: 7.8, 17.9, 9.8, 2.5, and 10 from 2005 through 2009. If you weight those at .05, .10, .20, .30 and .35 from oldest to most recent, we get a weighted average of 8.39 runs saved. However, if you throw out his 2008 score where he wasn't a full time 3rd baseman, you weigh them at .1, .2, .3, and .4 you get a weighted average of 11.3 runs saved.
So, let's call him a 10 run fielder at 3rd base. The positional adjustments for the Wins Above Replacement calculations are based on what a player who was an average fielder at a position would do moving to another position. For instance, a player who's average at SS, would, based on historical data, be worth about 2.5 runs defensively at 3rd base. So if you're moving from 3rd to SS and you're an average fielder at the hot corner, we'd expect you to be about -7.5 at short.
So, if you hack off 7.5 runs from Inge's total -- but lets just call it 8 -- you still get a shortstop who is worth 2 runs defensively. He's got the athleticism and the arm.
Adrian Beltre is an elite hitter coming off a big injury. Add in a potential Type-B status and you've got a player that not many teams would be jumping at the chance of getting. Since signing his big deal with Seattle in 2005, he's put up WAR numbers of 2.5, 4.6, 3.0, 4.1 from 2005 through 2008. This year, he was at 1.3 through 73 games. If you extrapolate that over just 140 games this year, he was on pace for a 2.5 WAR season again. Over 150 games that'd be 2.67 WAR.
I don't think it's out of the realm of possibilites that Beltre could be had on a cheap, low risk deal. Say, something like 2 years, $15 million, with incentives due to his injured right shoulder.
Obviously, you only make this move by securing some sort of back-up plan at shortstop. If Beltre's shoulder acts up again, Inge can slide back to 3rd base and the back-up plan could man short for the duration of Beltre's injury.
I really don't think it's that crazy of an idea. It's just an idea that Dave Dombrowski and company won't be making.
Magglio Ordonez just might be the most interesting Tigers-related story in the second half of this 2009 season. I know, the whole division title thing is intriguing to, but he's getting platooned now with Clete Thomas. How long that lasts is up to Jim Leyland and his lineups change as often and he runs out of lighter fluid, so who knows if it'll be that way for very long after the all-star break. Bill pointed out that if he were platooned and the Tigers faced the same rate of left-handed pitchers, Magglio would end up 60-70 plate appearances shy of vesting his club-option for the 2010 season:
As of tonight, Ordonez is 166 plate appearances shy of his vesting option. Through the first 84 games the Tigers have faced 27 lefty starters. At the same rate the Tigers would face 25 more lefty starters this season, and with about 4 PA’s per start Ordonez would come up 60-70 plate appearances short of the vesting option. That is significant enough to not be conspicuous or grievance-able, especially if Thomas or a bat to be named later hits well enough against righties.Why is that important and why is it so interesting? Well, Magglio's currently a Type-A free agent according to Eddie's numbers. If the plate appearance minimum isn't reached and his option isn't vested, it would make him a free agent. I have no idea if we offered arbitration whether he would accept it next winter or not. If not, that's a potential of 2 draft picks coming back our way if/when someone were to sign him. And at his current production, a low-cost deal is possible for a team looking for a DH or a bad defensive corner outfielder.
But it gets a bit more complicated than just plate appearances. He can get his option to be automatically picked up if he has 270 games started OR 1080 PA's over the course of 2008 and 2009. Currently, he's sitting at 214 starts and 917 PA's.
For the option to be automatically picked up, he would need 163 PA's or just 29 more starts in the 2nd half. How likely is it that we face 29 left-handers in the next few months? We faced 27 in the first half of 2009.
Me thinks that the Magglio 2010 option will get picked up. And the option for 2011 will be hingent on the same requirements: 270 stars or 1080 PA's from 2009-2010. Magglio will be in Detroit, barring a trade or big time injury, for the duration of his contract.
Other Tigers:
Placido Polanco's currently sitting as a Type-B free agent. I am not in favor of letting him go. He's still playing great defense (according to UZR) and he's been the 12th most valuable player manning the keystone corner this year. Couple that with the fact that I don't think Scott Sizemore is a long-term answer at 2nd base, and I think a 2-year deal after this season would be best. Even include an option for a 3rd year and I'd be content with that, too.
Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon are both Type-B free agents. I say, try to pick up the draft picks for both. I'm a huge proponent of building a bullpen as cheaply as possible. There's got to be players who can be just as frustrating as Joel Zumaya and Rodney have been in their tenures here, and do it for a fraction of the cost.
Off the wall solution for the 2010 season:
Adam Everett is a free agent at the end of this year. He'll likely get a raise where ever he goes -- we got him on the cheap because fielding's underrated and he was coming off an injury plagued couple of seasons. This leaves a hole that I do not want Ramon Santiago to fill on his own. Here's where I come at you with some outside-the-box thinking: Brandon Inge to shortstop, Adrian Beltre to 3rd base.
If we let one of our Type -B free agents that walk at the end of the year (Rodney, Lyon?), we can essentially trade those picks for Adrian Beltre. Beltre's hurt and I believe out for the season. So he'll only drop on this list of Type-A/B free agents and he's currently a Type-B. We can sign a Type-B and let a Type-B walk and those picks will cancel them out.
Follow me here. Inge is +37 in his career in runs saved at the hot corner. Lets say he finishes this season by saving a couple of more runs and gets to +10 runs saved defensively this season. His contributions would be: 7.8, 17.9, 9.8, 2.5, and 10 from 2005 through 2009. If you weight those at .05, .10, .20, .30 and .35 from oldest to most recent, we get a weighted average of 8.39 runs saved. However, if you throw out his 2008 score where he wasn't a full time 3rd baseman, you weigh them at .1, .2, .3, and .4 you get a weighted average of 11.3 runs saved.
So, let's call him a 10 run fielder at 3rd base. The positional adjustments for the Wins Above Replacement calculations are based on what a player who was an average fielder at a position would do moving to another position. For instance, a player who's average at SS, would, based on historical data, be worth about 2.5 runs defensively at 3rd base. So if you're moving from 3rd to SS and you're an average fielder at the hot corner, we'd expect you to be about -7.5 at short.
So, if you hack off 7.5 runs from Inge's total -- but lets just call it 8 -- you still get a shortstop who is worth 2 runs defensively. He's got the athleticism and the arm.
Adrian Beltre is an elite hitter coming off a big injury. Add in a potential Type-B status and you've got a player that not many teams would be jumping at the chance of getting. Since signing his big deal with Seattle in 2005, he's put up WAR numbers of 2.5, 4.6, 3.0, 4.1 from 2005 through 2008. This year, he was at 1.3 through 73 games. If you extrapolate that over just 140 games this year, he was on pace for a 2.5 WAR season again. Over 150 games that'd be 2.67 WAR.
I don't think it's out of the realm of possibilites that Beltre could be had on a cheap, low risk deal. Say, something like 2 years, $15 million, with incentives due to his injured right shoulder.
Obviously, you only make this move by securing some sort of back-up plan at shortstop. If Beltre's shoulder acts up again, Inge can slide back to 3rd base and the back-up plan could man short for the duration of Beltre's injury.
I really don't think it's that crazy of an idea. It's just an idea that Dave Dombrowski and company won't be making.
The Hardball Times Fielding: 2nd base
In part two of turning the Hardball Times defensive data into runs series, I'm looking at 2nd base. First, the team totals at the keystone corner:
Here's one disagreement that the THT numbers have with UZR. Fangraphs has the Milwaukee Brewers as the best fielding team at 2nd base, while the THT numbers puts them 2nd. UZR puts the Brewers at 8.8 runs which rounds up to 9. Here, I've got them at 16 runs. The big difference is with teams like Toronto who I've got at being +20 runs at 2nd, while UZR has them at just +4.3.
Top/Bottom 5 in 2009:
Here's the individual UZR leaderboard, sorted by total UZR. The THT numbers aren't as big of a fan of Placido Polanco as UZR is -- -1 runs defensively in my system and +6.8 in UZR.
As always with fielding, big caveats are sample sizes. A full seasons worth of defensive data is roughly 2-3 months of offensive data's worth. So, it takes a long, long time to stabilize. Also UZR, is much more advanced then my method, but I find it interesting to compare and contrast the two.
| Team | 2B |
| TOR | 20 |
| MIL | 16 |
| TB | 10 |
| LAA | 8 |
| ARI | 8 |
| TEX | 7 |
| NYA | 6 |
| BAL | 5 |
| CIN | 5 |
| PHI | 3 |
| WAS | 2 |
| BOS | 1 |
| LAN | 1 |
| SF | 1 |
| DET | 0 |
| HOU | -2 |
| COL | -2 |
| CHN | -3 |
| NYN | -4 |
| STL | -5 |
| PIT | -6 |
| OAK | -6 |
| SEA | -6 |
| KC | -7 |
| CHA | -7 |
| SD | -7 |
| ATL | -8 |
| FLA | -8 |
| CLE | -9 |
| MIN | -14 |
Here's one disagreement that the THT numbers have with UZR. Fangraphs has the Milwaukee Brewers as the best fielding team at 2nd base, while the THT numbers puts them 2nd. UZR puts the Brewers at 8.8 runs which rounds up to 9. Here, I've got them at 16 runs. The big difference is with teams like Toronto who I've got at being +20 runs at 2nd, while UZR has them at just +4.3.
Top/Bottom 5 in 2009:
| Last | First | Tm | Runs |
| Hill | Aaron W | TOR | 18 |
| Zobrist | Ben T | TB | 9 |
| Weeks | Rickie | MIL | 9 |
| Kendrick | Howie | LAA | 9 |
| Phillips | Brandon | CIN | 8 |
| Getz | Chris | CHA | -6 |
| Lopez | Jose C | SEA | -6 |
| Uggla | Dan C | FLA | -8 |
| Schumaker | Skip M | STL | -10 |
| Kennedy | Adam | OAK | -10 |
Here's the individual UZR leaderboard, sorted by total UZR. The THT numbers aren't as big of a fan of Placido Polanco as UZR is -- -1 runs defensively in my system and +6.8 in UZR.
As always with fielding, big caveats are sample sizes. A full seasons worth of defensive data is roughly 2-3 months of offensive data's worth. So, it takes a long, long time to stabilize. Also UZR, is much more advanced then my method, but I find it interesting to compare and contrast the two.
Sunday, July 12, 2009
Defense From The Hardball Times For 1st Base
Last year, Myron Logan (former author of Friar Forecast and current author of Another Padres Blog) penned this article at Baseball Analysts about turning Revised Zone Rating into a defensive runs saved number. After I read it, I contacted him and he had sent me his spreadsheet and I used it as well to calculate defensive data from 2008.
Now, Fangraphs publishes UZR data, so why bother? Well, because it's very simple to do this with just a little Excel know-how and I find defensive data very interesting because of the year-to-year fluctuations and how it is so far from the preciseness of offensive data.
Well, I've updated the numbers through July 10th, 2009. First, lets look at all teams. The following is sorted by total runs saved defensively:
For reference, the top/bottom five teams last year were:
So, defense can make quite the difference in a team contending or merely being mediocre. For instance, if the Royals were on a Texas Rangers level of defense -- about -30 runs defensively -- they could've added nearly 3-4 wins to their total by just being a better defensive ball club.
Detroit's done this. In 2008, by this metric, the Tigers were -33 runs defensively. This year, however, they're already at +42 runs. That's a difference of 75 runs -- or 7-8 wins worth.
I plan on making this a series (taking a cue from Myron over at Another Padres Blog), and looking at each position's top and bottom five fielders, plus the Tigers players.
The first position I'll look at is First Base. Here's how all the teams in the league have done thus far at first base defensively:
You've got to like Detroit being in the top third in the league. Here's the individual leaders:
Albert Pujols is pretty good at baseball. But, we saw the Tigers are a positive fielding team at 1st base. Miguel Cabrera comes in at +2 runs defensively. Jeff Larish is +1 and Ryan Raburn is average at 0 runs.
One quick note: If you see any funky math where some things should add up to a certain number, but they don't (more specifically, in the team totals) it's because I'm rounding to the nearest whole number. Tom Tango's made some comments that make sense to me about how to present defensive data: it's such an inexact science when compared to offensive data, that just rounding to the nearest whole number makes it less precise then rounding to one or two decimal places. For instance, Albert Pujols is actually at 11.35 runs defensively, but we just put him at 11 runs saved defensively.
Now, Fangraphs publishes UZR data, so why bother? Well, because it's very simple to do this with just a little Excel know-how and I find defensive data very interesting because of the year-to-year fluctuations and how it is so far from the preciseness of offensive data.
Well, I've updated the numbers through July 10th, 2009. First, lets look at all teams. The following is sorted by total runs saved defensively:
| Team | Total |
| PIT | 62 |
| DET | 42 |
| SEA | 39 |
| TB | 38 |
| SF | 33 |
| ARI | 33 |
| ATL | 21 |
| LAA | 19 |
| HOU | 16 |
| COL | 16 |
| MIL | 8 |
| TEX | 7 |
| STL | 6 |
| TOR | 6 |
| OAK | 6 |
| CHN | -1 |
| WAS | -2 |
| MIN | -2 |
| CIN | -5 |
| NYN | -8 |
| NYA | -9 |
| LAN | -11 |
| PHI | -13 |
| FLA | -16 |
| BAL | -17 |
| KC | -18 |
| CLE | -21 |
| SD | -25 |
| BOS | -25 |
| CHA | -29 |
For reference, the top/bottom five teams last year were:
| STL | 60 |
| ATL | 59 |
| HOU | 59 |
| PHI | 59 |
| NYN | 46 |
| TEX | -34 |
| BAL | -60 |
| NYA | -81 |
| MIN | -90 |
| KC | -96 |
So, defense can make quite the difference in a team contending or merely being mediocre. For instance, if the Royals were on a Texas Rangers level of defense -- about -30 runs defensively -- they could've added nearly 3-4 wins to their total by just being a better defensive ball club.
Detroit's done this. In 2008, by this metric, the Tigers were -33 runs defensively. This year, however, they're already at +42 runs. That's a difference of 75 runs -- or 7-8 wins worth.
I plan on making this a series (taking a cue from Myron over at Another Padres Blog), and looking at each position's top and bottom five fielders, plus the Tigers players.
The first position I'll look at is First Base. Here's how all the teams in the league have done thus far at first base defensively:
| Team | 1B |
| STL | 12 |
| ATL | 12 |
| CLE | 10 |
| CHA | 9 |
| BOS | 8 |
| PIT | 8 |
| SF | 7 |
| KC | 4 |
| LAA | 4 |
| DET | 3 |
| NYN | 2 |
| CHN | 1 |
| TOR | 1 |
| NYA | 0 |
| HOU | 0 |
| SEA | 0 |
| MIN | -1 |
| PHI | -1 |
| ARI | -2 |
| SD | -2 |
| WAS | -3 |
| FLA | -4 |
| BAL | -5 |
| TB | -5 |
| LAN | -5 |
| CIN | -9 |
| TEX | -10 |
| MIL | -11 |
| OAK | -11 |
| COL | -12 |
You've got to like Detroit being in the top third in the league. Here's the individual leaders:
| Last | First | Tm | 11 |
| Pujols | Albert | STL | 10 |
| Konerko | Paul | CHA | 9 |
| Kotchman | Casey | ATL | 7 |
| Youkilis | Kevin E | BOS | 7 |
| Davis | Chris | TEX | -7 |
| Giambi | Jason | OAK | -7 |
| Hernandez | Ramon | CIN | -10 |
| Helton | Todd | COL | -11 |
| Fielder | Prince | MIL | -11 |
Albert Pujols is pretty good at baseball. But, we saw the Tigers are a positive fielding team at 1st base. Miguel Cabrera comes in at +2 runs defensively. Jeff Larish is +1 and Ryan Raburn is average at 0 runs.
One quick note: If you see any funky math where some things should add up to a certain number, but they don't (more specifically, in the team totals) it's because I'm rounding to the nearest whole number. Tom Tango's made some comments that make sense to me about how to present defensive data: it's such an inexact science when compared to offensive data, that just rounding to the nearest whole number makes it less precise then rounding to one or two decimal places. For instance, Albert Pujols is actually at 11.35 runs defensively, but we just put him at 11 runs saved defensively.
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Fu-Te Ni Revisited
So, Harry Pavlidis profiled the two new arms in the bigs this week over at Beyond the Boxscore. Fu-Te Ni was one of those two. Head on over there for the graphs and whatnot. He says this:
Harry seems really to like the start that Ni's gotten off to, as well. I agree, he's been good in his first few innings.
I did not know that, and it makes sense as to why those graphs were so far off in terms of the release points. So, that explains that.
First up, Ni's release points. The reason some folks have noted a different release point for Ni's change, relative to the fastball/slider, is actually set-up by uneven usage of the pitch against left- and right-handed hitters, and combined with his shifting towards the first base sid of the rubber against lefties.
Harry seems really to like the start that Ni's gotten off to, as well. I agree, he's been good in his first few innings.
Monday, July 6, 2009
Lucas French Start Revisited
Well, Lucas French made his debut as a starter in the major leagues on Friday in the Metrodome -- you know, that 16 inning game that Detroit won? Before we get to the graphs, let's look at the numbers:
4.2 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 K, 2 BB, 1 HR allowed, 81 pitches, 50 strikes, 1 ground out, 10 fly outs.
When I grabbed the gameday data, it classified a lot of cutters and only 3 sliders. I don't know if he throws a cutter or not, but only one of them were up in the area with his fastballs, so I'm assuming that they were sliders, not fastballs.
With that correction made, here's some graphs. First, a release point graph. Click all graphs to enlarge.
I toyed around with varying symbols and colors and I think this works decently well. If not, I'm always open to suggestions. Pretty good cluster on all of his pitches. Given his lack of velocity, he cannot have multiple distinguishable release points for each of his pitches or else he'd get killed.
Now, a movement graph:
And moving on to his pitch flight graphs:
His fastball looks decent and his slider/change-up combo really have the same amounts of downward movement. They just move opposite directions, obviously. His average velocities in this game were 86.9 MPH on the fastball, 78.1 on the slider, and 79.9 on the change-up.
Really, this doesn't do anything to sway my initial impression of Luke French's flight paths where I said:
4.2 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 K, 2 BB, 1 HR allowed, 81 pitches, 50 strikes, 1 ground out, 10 fly outs.
When I grabbed the gameday data, it classified a lot of cutters and only 3 sliders. I don't know if he throws a cutter or not, but only one of them were up in the area with his fastballs, so I'm assuming that they were sliders, not fastballs.
With that correction made, here's some graphs. First, a release point graph. Click all graphs to enlarge.
I toyed around with varying symbols and colors and I think this works decently well. If not, I'm always open to suggestions. Pretty good cluster on all of his pitches. Given his lack of velocity, he cannot have multiple distinguishable release points for each of his pitches or else he'd get killed.Now, a movement graph:
And moving on to his pitch flight graphs:
His fastball looks decent and his slider/change-up combo really have the same amounts of downward movement. They just move opposite directions, obviously. His average velocities in this game were 86.9 MPH on the fastball, 78.1 on the slider, and 79.9 on the change-up.Really, this doesn't do anything to sway my initial impression of Luke French's flight paths where I said:
On the whole though, he seems to have a pretty generic arsenal for a left-handed pitcher. His stuff isn't overwhelming in the least, and he doesn't have some crazy amount of movement. His 2009 line in Toledo seems to be such an outlier when compared to his career norms -- especially given his stuff.I think he maxes out as a No. 5 starter in the majors in a best case scenario. He's a lower-40% ground ball pitcher (4 of every 10 balls in play), about the same with fly balls, and a couple of hard hit balls in there, as well. He's not going to miss a lot of bats, but also keeps the walks down. I think he's more organizational filler that every team needs -- a consistent guy to take the ball every fifth day in their Triple-A affiliate, but I don't look for him to stick in the D long at all. Not impressed. Hopefully he's able to prove me wrong, though.
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