Revisiting 2009 Draftee Wade Gaynor

Around this time last year, I took an interest in trying to adjust the offensive numbers put up in the college baseball landscape so I could get a grasp on what constitutes "good" offensive numbers in college baseball. With the metal bats, 300+ division 1 teams, and a talent pool that is very, very spread out, the elite college hitters put up offensive numbers that compared to what we're used to Major Leaguers putting up are just mind boggling.

I've written about my methods over at Baseball Analysts last winter. Overall, my methods really haven't strayed from that article. That is still how I correct for the park factor and for the strength of schedule.

The only things that have changed have been the weightings I give the categories in my "score" category. My "score" is a hodge-podge formula that is completely back-of-the-envelope on what I think the weightings should be -- like heavily penalizing K% (strikeouts divided by plate appearances) and rewarding BB%. I also use adjusted Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) and Isolated Power (IsoP; slugging percentage minus batting average) that get adjusted by park factors and strength of schedule. I'm really just rambling the things I wrote in the article I already linked to.

Before I move on I want to say this: The biggest single-season sample size I have is 354 plate appearances. So, immediately the Small Sample Size alarms should be ringing in your head. Most players are coming in around 250 PA's which is about 35% of a full, major league season. That is the biggest thing to keep in mind.

The second biggest thing to keep in mind is that these always, always need scouting reports to accompany them. Sure this is fun and all (for a nerd like myself), but the numbers don't mean anything if there's glaring holes in a players swing or someone isn't going to stick in center field like they have during their college careers.

With all that said, I've just input the numbers for the Sun Belt Conference and took a look at Wade Gaynor, the Tigers 3rd round draft pick out of Western Kentucky University. Lets see what they say after the jump. . .

PITCHf/x Profiling: Robbie Weinhardt

One of the 308 college relievers that the Detroit Tigers took in the 2008 draft is Robbie Weinhardt. He spent the last couple of months in the Arizona Fall League pitching for the Peoria Javalinas. Because of this, we get some decent-sized amount of data on how good of stuff the former Oklahoma State Cowboy features as parks in Peoria and Surprise, Arizona were fitted with PITCHf/x cameras.

Before we start, I will say that the following post is using only the data from Peoria as I haven't learned to correct for park differences. Also, I did not break up the fastballs between two- and four-seam fastballs. I feel that the change-up's were all labeled correctly -- except one, which I believe was a breaking ball. Speaking of the breaking ball, I've elected to go with labeling them as a Slider. Whether it's a slider or a curveball ... I don't know. I'm not sure it matters so long as the labeling is consistent.

Now, on with the PITCHf/x graphy goodness after the jump

Evaluating Baseball Managers: Billy Martin

Just wanted to take a moment to pass along this fantastic link. Chris Jaffe, a writer at The Hardball Times, has a book coming out about baseball managers and their tendencies. It seems like a great read and something I'll be looking to pick up.

Well, today's excerpt was about former Detroit Tigers manager, Billy Martin. It focuses mostly on his time with the Twins, but it's a fantastic look into what a gambler he was. Here's the part I enjoyed/was shocked about the most:

Martin’s approach to the base paths demonstrated how he wanted his team to play. In the second game he managed, Minnesota’s Rod Carew stole home. This was no fluke—by the end of the month, Carew had three steals of home and by the season’s conclusion he tied Ty Cobb’s single-season record with seven such swipes. Three of them came on triple steals. On another occasion, Cesar Tovar stole home as part of a successful triple steal. Four triple steals are the most by any one team in the last half-century, and probably the most since the deadball era.

On another occasion, opponents tagged Tovar out at the head of another triple steal—which Martin called when the Twins enjoyed a six-run lead. Graig Nettles, of all people, was once thrown out stealing home. Technically he was picked off of third and made a break for it, but he must have had a good-sized lead to draw a throw, as pitchers normally do not try picking runners off of third. Even slow-footed Harmon Killebrew, at age 33, stole eight bases that season. He had 11 the rest of his career. Billy Martin truly did not fear a damn thing.

Say whaaa? A triple steal? I've seen double steals fairly frequently, but the triple steal has never even entered my mind as a possibility in a baseball game. Ever. And I like to think that I'm fairly outside-the-box thinking. Maybe I'm not. That is astounding.

But, please, click through to read the entire thing. It's a great read from what is shaping up to be a great book. If you do like what you read and want to pre-order it, I would really recommend doing it through the publisher, as that nets Chris the most money, and lets face it, making money in from publishing a book (especially one in this sort of niche-market) is not easy.

Fun With Projections, Fanning the Milton Bradley Flames and Polanco v. Sizemore

Like I mentioned in my last post, the CHONE projections for hitters have been released. Sean Smith does a ton of good work from the CHONE projections, to TotalZone defensive metrics for the minor leagues, to the Wins Above Replacement database Lee is using for his top 20 tigers series. So head on over to Sean's site and waste away your afternoon looking at various CHONE Projections that I don't cover below.

About a month ago, I advocated trading for Milton Bradley after reading a piece from Patrick Hayes proposing it. Nothing has dissuaded me from still hoping Bradley comes to Motown and now we have CHONE projections to use to see how good he could be next year.

How does Bradley look for 2010? And what about other Tigers of interest? Find out after the jump...

Trading Curtis Granderson

The media and internet has been quite a-buzz with rumors of Curtis Granderson potentially being shopped by the Detroit Tigers. I want to say this right off the bat: I think Dombrowski is listening to offers, not shopping him. There's a difference between the two. And I see no reason for Dombrowski to not listen. You don't know if someone's willing to trade you the moon for him if you're not open to the discussion.

I've valued Curtis Granderson to be quite the bargain back when Lynn Henning was hitting him with the "Trade This Tiger" dart-toss of a column. He finished the 2009 season with 3.4 Wins Above Replacement and now with the Bill James and CHONE projections (hitters only, thus far) being released, we can get a pretty good read on his value. In the past, the Bill James projections have been a bit inflated (probably has to do with the level at which he is regressing the past numbers) and CHONE has proven to be a beast of a projection system as of late. Let's examine him (again). . .