The Tigers made a move to help bolster an infield that's half missing due to injury, and another spot that was never really filled this year (SS) by nabbing Jhonny Peralta.
I LOVE this move... if it were still 2008. Facts are that Peralta's batted ball data has shifted from a once-ground ball heavy (50.2% in 2008) to a fly-ball heavy hitter (33.9% this year). Due to this, his BABIP has dropped from the .315 from 2007-2009 to just .284 this year. This isn't something new, either. Hit more fly balls, you generally have fewer balls fall in for hits (see: Granderson, Curtis).
The biggest thing to not like about Peralta? The power outage. From 2006-2008 Peralta had an Isolated Power of .162 and the last two years Peralta's bottomed out posting a collective .129 Iso. That's a huge drop.let's peruse the leaderboards to get a feel for how big a 33 point drop is. Over the last three years, Joe Mauer, Lyle Overbay, and JJ Hardy have posted .162 IsoP numbers. Orlando Hudson has posted a .129 IsoP in that same time frame. Yuniesky Betancourt has posted a .127 Iso in span of time as well.
So we've not got a gut who hits for as much power as Yuniesky Betancourt. Congratulations!
"He can play shortstop when Inge gets back!"
Yes. Jhonny Peralta can physically stand at the shortstop position and not field baseballs that other guys will field. So he can play shortstop but he shouldn't play shortstop. There's a reason the Cleveland Indians have moved him off the position and it wasn't to be fair to opposing hitters because Peralta's just that good in the field. John Dewan has him as a +6 this year in Defensive Runs Saved and UZR has him at -2.2. Let's just call him an average defender. That'd be all well and good if he were still at short, but he's average at 3rd base. He'll likely be below average at shortstop. (More after the jump.)
But, he's got to be a better option at short than anything else we've put out there this year, no? Well, yes. He is, offensively. Tigers SS's this year have hit .236/.283/.316 collectively. Peralta's hitting .246/.308/.380 and is projected to hit .257/.321/.411 though that is very optimistic in my opinion because it's still factoring in some good years when his underlying talents were different from where they are today.
The Indians are paying Peralta's salary in order to secure a better prospect. Had we picked up the tab, we likely would've kept Gio Soto, but I'm not a fan of his. David Tokarz notes that Kevin Goldstein reported Soto's pretty uninspiring arsenal: high-80's fastball, a curve, slider, and change -- none of which are that good.
But he's got great numbers, so what gives? For starters, he's left-handed and in Low-A ball. If you can spot a fastball, from the left-side in Low-A you can often find success. I don't think Soto is one to be that worried about giving up at all.
Bottom line on this deal is that it's, at best, a lateral move. Instead of sending out one of the rookies, we're sending out a vet who we'll buy out at the end of the year ($250K buyout). Hopefully he'll catch fire, but I think it's more likely he'll be closer to the Aubrey Huff Experiment than anything else.
If I had my druthers, I would've made a move for Stephen Drew even if it meant shipping off Andrew Oliver. If the alternative is even making a deal for Jhonny Peralta, then I'd rather just stand pat.
Evaluating the Tigers through a Sabermetric lens
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
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