Putting Miguel Cabrera's 2010 Season in Historical Context

It's no secret that the offense has been inconsistency surrounding one consistent rock: Miguel Cabrera. Miggy (I refuse to call him Cabby) is having his finest offensive season of his career, and arguably his best overall season as well. There's a refrain amongst Tigers fans about him winning the MVP -- something that Lee touched on pretty eloquently.

For me, it comes down to how you credit his intentional walks. I had a back-and-forth quickly with Tigs Town's Paul Wezner on twitter about Cabrera's MVP candidacy, and I'm waffling on my position -- it's closer than I was anticipating.

But, this post doesn't care about whether El Martillo should or should not win the American League MVP. Instead, I'd like to focus on just how damn good Cabrera's been and where this offensive season ranks in the pantheon of Tigers sluggers.

According to Baseball Reference, Cabrera's offensive output this year has been 59 runs above the average player. Fangraphs has him at 50.5 Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA). I'm going to roll with the B-Ref batting runs because I'm going to be using the play index to generate some tables.
First, let's see how Miggy compares to former Tigers at his position. If we limit our sample to players in Tigers history (1901-2010) that played 90% of their games as first baseman and sort by Wins Above Replacement, Miguel Cabrera's currently having the 8th best season in Tigers history.

Rk	Player	WAR	Year	Age
1	Norm Cash	10	1961	26
2	Hank Greenberg	8.3	1935	24
3	Hank Greenberg	7.8	1937	26
4	Hank Greenberg	7.1	1938	27
5	Cecil Fielder	6.7	1990	26
6	Hank Greenberg	6.7	1934	23
7	Hank Greenberg	6.6	1946	35
8	Miguel Cabrera	6.4	2010	27
9	Rudy York	5.5	1943	29
10	Norm Cash	5.3	1965	30
11	Hank Greenberg	5.2	1939	28
12	Dale Alexander	4.8	1929	26
13	Jason Thompson	4.7	1978	23
14	Miguel Cabrera	4.4	2009	26
15	Norm Cash	4.4	1963	28
16	Rudy York	4.4	1940	26
17	Roy Cullenbine	4.2	1947	33
18	Norm Cash	3.9	1967	32
19	Tony Clark	3.7	1997	25
20	Norm Cash	3.7	1966	31
21	Norm Cash	3.7	1962	27
22	Lu Blue	3.6	1922	25
23	Jason Thompson	3.5	1977	22
24	Norm Cash	3.5	1969	34
25	Harry Heilmann	3.5	1919	24

But it gets even better. Cabrera's having the third best season for a Tigers first baseman NOT named Hank Greenberg. Think about that. In the last 109 years of players that have played 90% of their games at first base for Detroit, only 4 players have had a better season than Cabrera. FOUR IN 109 YEARS!

Now, one of the complaints from some that don't like the Wins Above Replacement metric comes with the use of a quantitative defensive number. I've had doubts creep in about defensive metrics in the last month or two as well, but the best thing about WAR is that it is a framework -- if you think Cabrera's the best fielding first baseman in the majors, feel free to put in 15 runs for defense and kick up his 6.4 WAR to just about 8. If you think he's the worst, drop it down to 4 WAR. It's your call. I think he's average and TotalZone (the defensive metric on B-Ref) puts him at -0.4 runs defensively. So it's basically average.

However, when we think of first baseman, we rarely think of defense or speed. So that leaves one major tool: offense. If we sort with the same qualifications (90% of games played in a season at first base in Tigers history) we can rank Cabrera's offensive season to date. Below is that table.

Rk	Player	Bat Runs	Year	Age
1	Norm Cash	84	1961	26
2	Hank Greenberg	68	1935	24
3	Hank Greenberg	65	1937	26
4	Hank Greenberg	61	1938	27
5	Miguel Cabrera	59	2010	27
6	Hank Greenberg	53	1934	23
7	Cecil Fielder	50	1990	26
8	Dale Alexander	45	1929	26
9	Hank Greenberg	44	1946	35
10	Hank Greenberg	39	1939	28
11	Rudy York	37	1940	26
12	Miguel Cabrera	34	2009	26
13	Rudy York	33	1943	29
14	Norm Cash	31	1965	30
15	Tony Clark	28	1997	25
16	Norm Cash	28	1971	36
17	Norm Cash	27	1963	28
18	Norm Cash	27	1962	27
19	Norm Cash	25	1966	31
20	Harry Heilmann	24	1919	24
21	Roy Cullenbine	23	1947	33
22	Jason Thompson	22	1978	23
23	Claude Rossman	20	1908	27
24	Norm Cash	19	1969	34
25	Norm Cash	19	1968	33

Cabrera comes in with the 5th best offensive season among Tigers first basemen ever and if you remove the legendary Hank Greenberg, then only Norm Cash's amazing 1961 season has been better. Norm Cash was a close-to Hall of Fame player, but I think it's safe to say that Cabrera's a better talent. What we're looking at when we watch Miguel Cabrera is simple: the best Detroit Tigers first baseman since Hank Greenberg -- a truly generational and historical player.

Now, let's open up our requirements to all positions and see where Cabrera ranks. If we rank by WAR, Cabrera's currently at 46th best season in Tigers history (I didn't want to post a table because a top 50 list seems like a bit of overkill. Now, he gets a big hit for his position because 1st base is low on the defensive spectrum and also because he's been an average fielder.

So let's just isolate his offense and see how that ranks:

Rk	Player	Rbat	Year	Age
1	Norm Cash	84	1961	26
2	Ty Cobb	81	1911	24
3	Harry Heilmann	78	1923	28
4	Ty Cobb	75	1912	25
5	Ty Cobb	74	1917	30
6	Ty Cobb	73	1915	28
7	Hank Greenberg	68	1935	24
8	Harry Heilmann	67	1927	32
9	Magglio Ordonez	65	2007	33
10	Hank Greenberg	65	1937	26
11	Ty Cobb	65	1910	23
12	Ty Cobb	63	1909	22
13	Hank Greenberg	61	1938	27
14	Charlie Gehringer	61	1934	31
15	Harry Heilmann	61	1925	30
16	Harry Heilmann	60	1921	26
17	Miguel Cabrera	59	2010	27
18	Ty Cobb	59	1922	35
19	Al Kaline	58	1955	20
20	Hank Greenberg	58	1940	29
21	Ty Cobb	58	1916	29
22	Sam Crawford	54	1911	31
23	Hank Greenberg	53	1934	23
24	Ty Cobb	53	1907	20
25	Ty Cobb	52	1925	38

Cabrera's 59 runs above average offensively place him 17th best in Tigers history. He's a pretty safe bet to pick up a few more and I can see him finishing in the top 15. Obviously Ty Cobb and Hank Greenberg are two of the best hitters in baseball history, so if you count up the number of players ahead of Cabrera, you get just 6. Six people to ever button up a jersey with the Old English D have gone out and had a better season than Miguel Cabrera and only three of them had multiple seasons this great.

You can manipulate the numbers a multitude of different ways but Miguel Cabrera's 2010 season is something to be cherished. There's a chance we won't see another offensive season like this for a number of years and it's safe to say we're seeing what is potentially the best first baseman in Tigers history.