Net Strikeout Rates

Strikeout-to-walk differential is something Tom Tango has written a couple times about as a nice -- and better -- alternative to strikeout-to-walk ratio. I'm going to call it Net Strikeouts or Net K's for simplicities sake. Essentially, you take a pitcher strikeouts and subtract out unintentional walks and hit-by-pitches from the total. I thought this would be a fun list to make for this year and I don't think this would really fit in any other site I'd post at, so I'm going to dump it here.

First,  a list of the starting pitchers with the most Net K's in the major leagues as of Wednesday.

Rk	Name	Team	Lg	Role	Net K's
1	Justin Verlander	Tigers	AL	SP	167
2	Roy Halladay	Phillies	NL	SP	164
3	Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	NL	SP	162
4	Cliff Lee	Phillies	NL	SP	148
5	CC Sabathia	Yankees	AL	SP	148
6	James Shields	Rays	AL	SP	137
7	David Price	Rays	AL	SP	131
8	Dan Haren	Angels	AL	SP	128
9	Felix Hernandez	Mariners	AL	SP	127
10	Cole Hamels	Phillies	NL	SP	125
11	Jered Weaver	Angels	AL	SP	119
12	Tim Lincecum	Giants	NL	SP	119
13	Anibal Sanchez	Marlins	NL	SP	118
14	Matt Garza	Cubs	NL	SP	112
15	Madison Bumgarner	Giants	NL	SP	107
16	Yovani Gallardo	Brewers	NL	SP	106
17	Chris Carpenter	Cardinals	NL	SP	106
18	Matt Cain	Giants	NL	SP	104
19	Brandon Morrow	Blue Jays	AL	SP	103
20	Ian Kennedy	Diamondbacks	NL	SP	103
21	Michael Pineda	Mariners	AL	SP	102
22	Ervin Santana	Angels	AL	SP	100
23	Bud Norris	Astros	NL	SP	99
24	Daniel Hudson	Diamondbacks	NL	SP	97
25	Ricky Nolasco	Marlins	NL	SP	96

Justin Verlander sits atop the list, which isn't shocking given he does lead the Major Leagues with 218 strikeouts this season. But what really makes Net K's something of interest to me is someone like Dan Haren sitting eighth on this list. Haren has quietly had a great year for the Angels (quietly to me, anyways) but has posted just 158 punch-outs -- no one else in front of Haren has fewer than David Price's 184 K's. One would think Haren would be at a disadvantage in a statistic looking at K's then, right? Nope. Haren walks next-to-no-one and he doesn't hit batters. Because of this, his 158 actual strikeouts only drops to 128. The next lowest difference between actual K's and Net K's of the guys ahead of Haren in Net K's: 43 by Cliff Lee.

Okay, so I'm not being entirely honest. Roy Halladay only has 27 of his strikeouts shaved off with Net K's, but he's whiffed almost 35 more batters than Haren has this year. Even if Halladay walked or beaned another forty hitters, he'd still have one more net strikeout than Haren despite facing only eight more hitters.

It must be nice to be a Phillies fan, huh?

Here is the relief pitcher list:

Rk	Name	Team	Lg	Role	Net K's
1	Craig Kimbrel	Braves	NL	RP	80
2	Tyler Clippard	Nationals	NL	RP	67
3	Koji Uehara	- - -	AL	RP	64
4	Jonathan Papelbon	Red Sox	AL	RP	60
5	David Robertson	Yankees	AL	RP	56
6	Rafael Betancourt	Rockies	NL	RP	55
7	Sergio Santos	White Sox	AL	RP	54
8	Jonny Venters	Braves	NL	RP	53
9	Vinnie Pestano	Indians	AL	RP	52
10	Sean Marshall	Cubs	NL	RP	51
11	John Axford	Brewers	NL	RP	50
12	Glen Perkins	Twins	AL	RP	47
13	Daniel Bard	Red Sox	AL	RP	47
14	Fernando Salas	Cardinals	NL	RP	47
15	Francisco Rodriguez	- - -	NL	RP	47
16	Chris Resop	Pirates	NL	RP	46
17	Greg Holland	Royals	AL	RP	45
18	Drew Storen	Nationals	NL	RP	44
19	Antonio Bastardo	Phillies	NL	RP	43
20	Mariano Rivera	Yankees	AL	RP	43
21	Chris Sale	White Sox	AL	RP	43
22	Huston Street	Rockies	NL	RP	42
23	Eric O'Flaherty	Braves	NL	RP	42
24	Guillermo Mota	Giants	NL	RP	42
25	Mike Adams	Padres	NL	RP	41

Craig Kimbrel is just absurd. Even if someone manages to put the ball in play against him, Kimbrel still sports a league-average ground ball rate. Unfair. Johnny Venters is eighth? I don't get too jazzed over relievers often, but Atlanta's two best are the bullpen equivalent to Halladay-Lee.

These are obviously just the counting stats. How about in form of Net K%? First, the starting pitchers:

Rk	Name	Team	Lg	Role	Net K's
1	Roy Halladay	Phillies	NL	SP	0.209
2	Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	NL	SP	0.207
3	Justin Verlander	Tigers	AL	SP	0.201
4	Cliff Lee	Phillies	NL	SP	0.199
5	Cole Hamels	Phillies	NL	SP	0.179
6	James Shields	Rays	AL	SP	0.173
7	CC Sabathia	Yankees	AL	SP	0.171
8	David Price	Rays	AL	SP	0.170
9	Anibal Sanchez	Marlins	NL	SP	0.168
10	Brandon Morrow	Blue Jays	AL	SP	0.166
11	Dan Haren	Angels	AL	SP	0.165
12	Matt Garza	Cubs	NL	SP	0.164
13	Michael Pineda	Mariners	AL	SP	0.164
14	Tim Lincecum	Giants	NL	SP	0.157
15	Madison Bumgarner	Giants	NL	SP	0.155
16	Felix Hernandez	Mariners	AL	SP	0.154
17	Jered Weaver	Angels	AL	SP	0.152
18	Josh Beckett	Red Sox	AL	SP	0.144
19	Yovani Gallardo	Brewers	NL	SP	0.144
20	Bud Norris	Astros	NL	SP	0.142
21	Chris Capuano	Mets	NL	SP	0.142
22	Matt Cain	Giants	NL	SP	0.136
23	Jonathon Niese	Mets	NL	SP	0.135
24	Ian Kennedy	Diamondbacks	NL	SP	0.134
25	Mat Latos	Padres	NL	SP	0.134

The rate stats drop Verlander down a touch and prop up Clayton Kershaw and Cole Hamels. Again, though, farther down the list is what piques my interest. Chris Capuano, like Haren, has above-average strikeout rates for a starting pitcher, but they shine more when you strip away walks and hit batters.

The relief pitchers list:

Rk	Name	Team	Lg	Role	Net K's
1	Craig Kimbrel	Braves	NL	RP	0.315
2	Koji Uehara	- - -	AL	RP	0.299
3	Jonathan Papelbon	Red Sox	AL	RP	0.283
4	Rafael Betancourt	Rockies	NL	RP	0.259
5	David Robertson	Yankees	AL	RP	0.251
6	Tyler Clippard	Nationals	NL	RP	0.250
7	Sergio Santos	White Sox	AL	RP	0.248
8	Vinnie Pestano	Indians	AL	RP	0.245
9	Mike Adams	Padres	NL	RP	0.229
10	Antonio Bastardo	Phillies	NL	RP	0.229
11	Greg Holland	Royals	AL	RP	0.228
12	Mariano Rivera	Yankees	AL	RP	0.223
13	Glen Perkins	Twins	AL	RP	0.221
14	Ryan Madson	Phillies	NL	RP	0.212
15	Daniel Bard	Red Sox	AL	RP	0.203
16	Sean Marshall	Cubs	NL	RP	0.198
17	Huston Street	Rockies	NL	RP	0.194
18	Fernando Salas	Cardinals	NL	RP	0.193
19	John Axford	Brewers	NL	RP	0.188
20	Steve Cishek	Marlins	NL	RP	0.188
21	Jonny Venters	Braves	NL	RP	0.181
22	Francisco Rodriguez	- - -	NL	RP	0.181
23	Drew Storen	Nationals	NL	RP	0.175
24	Chris Sale	White Sox	AL	RP	0.173
25	Will Ohman	White Sox	AL	RP	0.173

Craig Kimbrel's 31.5% Net K% would still be ninth best in baseball among relievers. That is crazy-good. One of the people Net K% helps is someone like David Robertson of the New York Yankees. Robertson has walked (and by that I mean unintentional BB's plus HBP's) 11.2% of batters faced this year which is below-average for a reliever. Qualified relievers this year are BB+HBP'ing 8.4% of batters faced. However, Robertson's raw strikeout rate is so good, that his Net K% still grades out top five among all qualified relievers.

Now, I've given you the counting and rate numbers, so let's add context to the equation. I compared each pitcher's Net K% to the league average for their role (starters compared to starters, relievers to relievers) and made it int0 a "plus" stat. 100 will equal league average and a point above and below 100 is equal to one percent above or below the mean. First up, starting pitchers.

Rk	Name	Team	Lg	Role	NetK+
1	Roy Halladay	Phillies	NL	SP	193
2	Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	NL	SP	191
3	Justin Verlander	Tigers	AL	SP	186
4	Cliff Lee	Phillies	NL	SP	184
5	Cole Hamels	Phillies	NL	SP	166
6	James Shields	Rays	AL	SP	160
7	CC Sabathia	Yankees	AL	SP	158
8	David Price	Rays	AL	SP	157
9	Anibal Sanchez	Marlins	NL	SP	155
10	Brandon Morrow	Blue Jays	AL	SP	153
11	Dan Haren	Angels	AL	SP	152
12	Matt Garza	Cubs	NL	SP	152
13	Michael Pineda	Mariners	AL	SP	152
14	Tim Lincecum	Giants	NL	SP	145
15	Madison Bumgarner	Giants	NL	SP	143
16	Felix Hernandez	Mariners	AL	SP	142
17	Jered Weaver	Angels	AL	SP	140
18	Josh Beckett	Red Sox	AL	SP	133
19	Yovani Gallardo	Brewers	NL	SP	133
20	Bud Norris	Astros	NL	SP	131
21	Chris Capuano	Mets	NL	SP	131
22	Matt Cain	Giants	NL	SP	125
23	Jonathon Niese	Mets	NL	SP	124
24	Ian Kennedy	Diamondbacks	NL	SP	124
25	Mat Latos	Padres	NL	SP	123

Hot damn. Those top four are in a league of their own right now. Clayton Kershaw has been every bit as good as Justin Verlander, yet gets a tenth of the publicity (in my perception, anyway). Verlander's getting pub as a potential MVP candidate -- and he'll likely finish in the top ten -- but, he's been the best pitcher in the American League regardless of how overstated his MVP case may be*. There's a decent gap between Cole Hamels and sixth place James Shields. After that, it gets pretty cluttered, Jonathan Niese of the New York Mets has the lowest raw strikeout percentage of the listed starters.

*And it's not overstated because he only plays every fifth day -- hell, Verlander will have accrued around 945 "plate appearances" this year if he has 33 starts. That is 37% more than Miguel Cabrera will accrue at his current pace in 161 games (his current games played pace). No, pitchers don't appear in as many games as hitters, but when they're on the mound they're controlling the game much more than a hitter can, even if you include defense.

The relievers:

Rk	Name	Team	Lg	Role	NetK+
1	Craig Kimbrel	Braves	NL	RP	243
2	Koji Uehara	- - -	AL	RP	231
3	Jonathan Papelbon	Red Sox	AL	RP	218
4	Rafael Betancourt	Rockies	NL	RP	200
5	David Robertson	Yankees	AL	RP	194
6	Tyler Clippard	Nationals	NL	RP	193
7	Sergio Santos	White Sox	AL	RP	191
8	Vinnie Pestano	Indians	AL	RP	189
9	Mike Adams	Padres	NL	RP	177
10	Antonio Bastardo	Phillies	NL	RP	177
11	Greg Holland	Royals	AL	RP	176
12	Mariano Rivera	Yankees	AL	RP	172
13	Glen Perkins	Twins	AL	RP	170
14	Ryan Madson	Phillies	NL	RP	164
15	Daniel Bard	Red Sox	AL	RP	157
16	Sean Marshall	Cubs	NL	RP	153
17	Huston Street	Rockies	NL	RP	150
18	Fernando Salas	Cardinals	NL	RP	149
19	John Axford	Brewers	NL	RP	145
20	Steve Cishek	Marlins	NL	RP	145
21	Jonny Venters	Braves	NL	RP	140
22	Francisco Rodriguez	- - -	NL	RP	140
23	Drew Storen	Nationals	NL	RP	135
24	Chris Sale	White Sox	AL	RP	134
25	Will Ohman	White Sox	AL	RP	134

Koji Uehara has a raw strikeout percentage of 33.6% this year. That's absurdly good (fourth best among qualified relievers), but where Uehara really shines is his 3.7% unintentional walk rate -- which includes HBP's, remember -- and that drives his insanely good Net K+ rate. This year, it's been Kimbrel, a gap, Uehara as the best relievers in baseball but Rafael Betancourt has rediscovered his great strikeout and walk rates of the 2007 season. In that year, Betancourt K'd 27.7% of batters and walked a miniscule 3.1%. Then, he started walking a ton of guys in the first part of 2009 for Cleveland (and K'ing plenty) and wound up in Colorado. Since then, his FIP- numbers have been 57 and 67 -- that's 43 and 33% better than league average FIP's -- which have made him one of the games unsung relievers. If I asked you to give your five best relievers in the major leagues would Rafael Betancourt make it? He wouldn't have made mine before I pulled this data.

Who hurts the most by these metrics? Well, pitchers that walk and/or hit a lot of batters, obviously.

Rk	Name	Team	Lg	Role	NetK+	Delta
1	Gio Gonzalez	Athletics	AL	SP	103	0.120
2	Jhoulys Chacin	Rockies	NL	SP	74	0.113
3	A.J. Burnett	Yankees	AL	SP	78	0.109
4	Jon Lester	Red Sox	AL	SP	113	0.107
5	James McDonald	Pirates	NL	SP	77	0.105
6	Ricky Romero	Blue Jays	AL	SP	87	0.105
7	Charlie Morton	Pirates	NL	SP	36	0.103
8	John Lannan	Nationals	NL	SP	26	0.102
9	Jason Hammel	Rockies	NL	SP	16	0.102
10	Trevor Cahill	Athletics	AL	SP	60	0.101

Here are the starters with the largest difference between raw K% and Net K%. I've included their Net K+, as well. While having the largest difference between raw and net strikeout rates doesn't spell doom for everyone, the list above only has three guys by my count with above-average FIP's this year (Gonzalez, Lester, Morton) while there have been some disasters on the list (McDonald, Lannan, Hammel, Cahill).

What this shows me just echoes what Satchel Price said back in May at Beyond the Boxscore: if you want to be an elite pitcher you don't have to post gaudy strikeout rates, but you must limit walks at all costs to even have a chance.

Note: Data contained in this post was pulled from Fangraphs.com. The league averages were calculated from a list of qualified pitchers only which is probably wrong but I was lazy and it isn't likely to make a large difference, either.