Tigers WAR Projections Take 2

Sky Kalkman has updated his WAR Spreadsheet and thus I am re-doing the WAR Projections I've made in my last post. Bill noted that I had Everett as a negative fielder which was just an inputting error as I meant to have him at +1.25 and not -1.25. That's been fixed. The spreadsheet can be found here and has the Tigers winning 79.5 games this year (round up if you're feeling optimistic!), or being an 80-82 team.

The probability table isn't showing up, but it goes like this:

Probability of winning:
61 games - 100%
66 - 98%
71 - 89%
76 - 68%
81 - 37%
86 - 13%
91 - 3%
96 - 0%
101 - 0%

Things really get bleak in terms of these projections for breaking the .500 mark and even getting there is less than a 40% proposition. Granted, that's with only two actual relievers and the rest being replacement level, but at worst (barring major injuries to someone like, say, Miguel Cabrera or Curtis Granderson), this team looks like they should be in the hunt for .500 without adding significant pieces to the bullpen via in-house options in the reliever role.

Speaking of in-house options, here's a video of Casey Fien pitching in the Arizona Fall League for anyone that's a mechanics person.