Jarrod Washburn Acquisition

So, the Tigers acquired Jarrod Washburn today in the only move they made. I've already voiced my opinion on this trade both in the chat, at Bill's site, and on Beyond the Boxscore's comment section. Let me lay this out:

Luke French: young, cost-controlled lefty with average stuff pretty much across the board. His move to Triple-A Toledo this year led to a jump in K's and in overall performance. He's pitched to the tune of a 3.87 FIP in Detroit thus far and accrued 0.6 Wins Above Replacement in just 7 games (5 starts, but we'll go with games). Lets stretch that out to a potential 12 more starts as the Tigers have 62 games. Now, with off-days and some youngsters like Rick Porcello in the rotation, there'll be re-ordering in the rotation to help preserve Porcello's inning count for the year. But, let's run with the 12 starts and assume Luke French would stay in the rotation for those 12 starts his spot would get. 0.6 WAR in 7 games stretched to another 12 games would equal a total WAR of 1.6. that's below-average production, but if you stretch it out to a full season's worth, it's above-average in the neighborhood of 2.8 WAR.

Don't think French is a true 3.87 FIP-er? Okay, knock off half a win from that war. He's giving you 1 WAR this season at 20 years old in his rookie year. Not shabby. That's nearly $5 million in value.

Jarrod Washburn has a 3.75 FIP and has accrued 2.7 WAR in 20 starts. Stretched out over another 12 starts, he's roughly on pace for 4.3 WAR, or an additional 1.6 WAR. I don't think he'll maintain his current pace, but since he's an established big leaguer, lets just say he keeps his current pace up.

So, really, he's giving us likely half a win more than Luke French would give us. That is worth about $2.65 million on the open market.

However, it wasn't a one-for-one swap, as the "cost of upgrading" to Washburn's talent level over French as Bill put it, was an additional prospect: Mauricio Robles. Robles is a lefty who can sit in the low-to-middle 90's with a good breaking ball but is inconsistent. I don't think he'll be this generation of Tigers fans' John Smoltz, but he's a high upside/incredibly low-floor guy. He wasn't rated in the Tigers Top ten by John Sickels, so I can't put a value to him.

Now, Jarrod Washburn's contract runs out this year, but he's slotted to be a potential Type-B free agent. So, we can offer arbitration and if he turns it down, pick up a compensation round pick. But, like Dave Cameron noted in his write-up, it's very plausible that mid-30's pitcher coming off of his best season in over half-a-decade, very well could accept the arbitration. Given he made $10 million this year, that'll like mean a raise and likely mean $12-15 million salary for the 2010 season.

For a team with a payroll that's apparently strapped, I don't think we added much and, at best, it's a lateral move. I don't think it's the worst trade in a decade like Dave Cameron's article paints it, but I don't think it's a win like most Tigers bloggers and fans think, either.