So, the Tigers acquired Jarrod Washburn today in the only move they made. I've already voiced my opinion on this trade both in the chat, at Bill's site, and on Beyond the Boxscore's comment section. Let me lay this out:
Luke French: young, cost-controlled lefty with average stuff pretty much across the board. His move to Triple-A Toledo this year led to a jump in K's and in overall performance. He's pitched to the tune of a 3.87 FIP in Detroit thus far and accrued 0.6 Wins Above Replacement in just 7 games (5 starts, but we'll go with games). Lets stretch that out to a potential 12 more starts as the Tigers have 62 games. Now, with off-days and some youngsters like Rick Porcello in the rotation, there'll be re-ordering in the rotation to help preserve Porcello's inning count for the year. But, let's run with the 12 starts and assume Luke French would stay in the rotation for those 12 starts his spot would get. 0.6 WAR in 7 games stretched to another 12 games would equal a total WAR of 1.6. that's below-average production, but if you stretch it out to a full season's worth, it's above-average in the neighborhood of 2.8 WAR.
Don't think French is a true 3.87 FIP-er? Okay, knock off half a win from that war. He's giving you 1 WAR this season at 20 years old in his rookie year. Not shabby. That's nearly $5 million in value.
Jarrod Washburn has a 3.75 FIP and has accrued 2.7 WAR in 20 starts. Stretched out over another 12 starts, he's roughly on pace for 4.3 WAR, or an additional 1.6 WAR. I don't think he'll maintain his current pace, but since he's an established big leaguer, lets just say he keeps his current pace up.
So, really, he's giving us likely half a win more than Luke French would give us. That is worth about $2.65 million on the open market.
However, it wasn't a one-for-one swap, as the "cost of upgrading" to Washburn's talent level over French as Bill put it, was an additional prospect: Mauricio Robles. Robles is a lefty who can sit in the low-to-middle 90's with a good breaking ball but is inconsistent. I don't think he'll be this generation of Tigers fans' John Smoltz, but he's a high upside/incredibly low-floor guy. He wasn't rated in the Tigers Top ten by John Sickels, so I can't put a value to him.
Now, Jarrod Washburn's contract runs out this year, but he's slotted to be a potential Type-B free agent. So, we can offer arbitration and if he turns it down, pick up a compensation round pick. But, like Dave Cameron noted in his write-up, it's very plausible that mid-30's pitcher coming off of his best season in over half-a-decade, very well could accept the arbitration. Given he made $10 million this year, that'll like mean a raise and likely mean $12-15 million salary for the 2010 season.
For a team with a payroll that's apparently strapped, I don't think we added much and, at best, it's a lateral move. I don't think it's the worst trade in a decade like Dave Cameron's article paints it, but I don't think it's a win like most Tigers bloggers and fans think, either.
Friday, July 31, 2009
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You're not really accurately assessing French's value this year. French is 23, and if he stayed in the rotation the rest of the season he would have gone well over his career IP max of 170. Which is fine I suppose, and then (hopefully) comes the playoffs, where Galarraga basically has to be the number three, and you're stuck in a 3 man rotation because you have two drained rookies as your alternates.
ReplyDeleteWashburn is French, maybe, but he's practically guaranteed to be what French could be at best, and to be it through the playoffs if necessary. Not the worst trade in the world if you consider Robles a relief prospect, the only position in the farm system in which we are loaded.
Not to mention, arbitration is not as high risk as you make it sound. Even if the player agrees to arbitration, and even if he wins, you can always cut the player before the season and he is only entitled to 30 days pay. I don't know what that is, but even if Washburn won an arbitration deal for $15 million (the max he could win at) that couldn't be more than $2 million. Think of it as a small buyout.
Where i would disagree the most is the part about arbitration. Dave Dombrowski doesn't go to arbitration, so Washburn's getting a raise no matter what. And if Dave Dombrowski's going to be putting that kind of money into a player he's not going to cut him. See: Gary Sheffield. See: Magglio Ordonez.
ReplyDeleteHell, see: Neifi Perez. See: Craig Monroe. See: Jacque Jones.
Dave Dombrowski doesn't cut guys willy-nilly. Other wise, Dontrelle would've been cut a long time ago, Nate Robertson would've been let go as well.
So, I understand the win-now mentality and I'm not even a huge Luke French fan, I just didn't see the deal as a massive upgrade for the Tigers.
No, it's not a massive upgrade for the Tigers. They really didn't need it to be though.
ReplyDeleteWashburn, for all intents and purposes, is an upgrade over French for the rest of the year. French isn't a guy that it hurts to lose and will never come back to haunt us. The Tigers didn't give up any top-ten prospects and at worst, may have just broken even.
Washburn is due to regress, but in my opinion (but apparently not in Dave Cameron's) less-so than Lukey is due to. That makes it a smart deal and one that can pay huge dividends if Washburn is even 1 win better than French would have been down the stretch.
The other big factor is that Washburn isn't moving to Camden Yards or the New Yankee Stadium -- the shift from Safeco to Comerica is basically a wash, limiting the amount of possible regression.
Dombo didn't give up the house to get this guy, and even though I'm one of the first to jump down Dombo's throat when he makes bad deals (Jurrjens for Renteria, anyone?), I think he assessed the need and the deal accurately. Hopefully Washburn stays lucky and can help this team down the stretch...
I definitely see your point, and I think my post comes across as much more harsh towards this deal than I originally intended or feel. I don't think this is a franchise crippler, and I understand the upgrade that Washburn brings in his innings-eating abilities. Again, I don't find this to be a horrible deal, but I'm also not thrilled. I'm quite comfortable being virtually the only Tigers blogger/fan I've seen not be excited by the deal, though I completely understand the reasons for loving it.
ReplyDeleteI guess what's funny is that my excitement stems almost completely from the fact that this trade wasn't a franchise-crippler. I'm pretty sure we're almost completely in agreement as to our assessment of the deal, we just differ slightly in our reactions to certain aspects.
ReplyDeleteWashburn is appealing to nearly all Tiger fans do to a sparkling (dishonest/unsustainable) ERA. I understand he's not a stud, but knowing the Tigers got through the trade deadline without making the team worse, be it now and in the future, while maybe even making the team marginally better gets me pretty excited.
Glass half-full, I suppose.
Yeah, I think we are in agreement on the value of the assets. I've always been a cynic, though. It's in my blood.
ReplyDelete