First, for reference, here's his graph from his debut:
And here's his graph from his second appearance:
His line from today's game:0.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 ground out, 0 fly outs, 10 pitches, 8 strikes.
Obviously, after 37 pitches recorded by pitch f/x data from Fu-Te Ni, there aren't any conclusions to be drawn, but I've found it very interesting that his three pitches come from different arm slots, as seen in the bird's eye view.
Moving along. . .
I'm going to piggy-back on a post I read a few days ago from Detroit4Lyfe's website that cited the top 3 in the rotation (Verlander/Jackson/Porcello) should be of concern to the Tigers in the 2nd half. I'll use the paraphrasing that Rob Neyer did on his blog:
Here's a summary of what I snipped: 1) Edwin Jackson has never pitched so well before, 2) Rick Porcello's a baby, and the Tigers will either limit his innings or watch him struggle with fatigue, and 3) Justin Verlander's career ERA after the All-Star break is 4.95. Hence the worries, and thoughts about the No. 4 and 5 starters.Here's what concerns me: Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson's workloads. Rick Porcello's concerns me as well, however, as a rookie, I'm not expecting him to throw 220 innings, nor do I want him to. The Tigers realize this as well.
Thus far, Justin Verlander's faced 452 batters including today's start. He's thrown 1831 pitches this year, including the 102 he threw in Oakland. He's averaged 4.05 pitches per batter faced. Last year, in his heavest workload to-date, he averaged 4.01 pitches per batter faced. Doesn't seem like a lot. He's averaged about 27 batters faced per start since the beginning of the 2007 season, so if we give him 33 starts this year -- equaling the amount he made last year -- he's on pace for 891 batters faced this season. At his current 4.05 pitches per batter faced pace, that's 3609 pitches. He threw 3528 last year, so it's only an increase of 81. Still, if we're in a tight division race, I could see getting 35 starts out of him this year, rather than 33 -- especially with a back-end of the rotation that's a hodge-podge of failure this year. If you give him 35 starts, 27 batters faced per start and 4.05 pitches per batter, you're at 3827 pitches and 945 batters faced. That's 299 more than he threw in 2008. You know, when he was 4th the majors in Pitcher Abuse Points? The same category that he leads in 2009. And a possible postseason run placed on top of that?
Look, I don't know if I fully trust pitcher abuse points. I definitely don't think it's a definitive metric and not something for me to get very up in arms over Verlander leading that category. I do know, however, that this is a long season and running Verlander out there for a lot of pitches every fifth day didn't work out too well for him in 2008, so what's different about 2009? And how about with someone like Edwin Jackson, who's work load is similar who hasn't had this done to him before?
Predicting a pitcher'ss durability is nearly unquantifiable. It's just how a pitcher was born. Some are born to not handle a heavy work load from a motion that's just unnatural being repeated thousands of times a season. Some guys, with awful mechanics can handle it (Hello, Randy Johnson). I'm not advocating shutting Justin Verlander down (nor Edwin Jackson), but I am a wee-bit concerned over what happens come, say, late August in the midst of a division title fight.
But, that may be putting the cart before the horse if this offense doesn't pick up. Did you know that in the last 30 days, Magglio Ordonez has hit a ground ball 60.3% of the time he puts the baseball in play?
What players with at least 50 plate appearanecs in the last 30 days have had a higher percentage of their balls in play be ground balls then Maggs? They are:
Luis Castillo: 67.9%
Chris Duncan: 64.3%
Ronny Cedeno: 63.3%
Nyjer Morgan: 62.5%
John Baker: 62.5%
Fernando Tatis: 61.8%
Jeff Keppinger: 61.4%
Yikes. Remember when Magglio used to drive the baseball?
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