Magglio Ordonez 2010 Option; Move Inge to Short?

So, Eddie from Tigers-Thoughts has updated his Elias Rankings for MLB Trade Rumors. Here's the list.

Magglio Ordonez just might be the most interesting Tigers-related story in the second half of this 2009 season. I know, the whole division title thing is intriguing to, but he's getting platooned now with Clete Thomas. How long that lasts is up to Jim Leyland and his lineups change as often and he runs out of lighter fluid, so who knows if it'll be that way for very long after the all-star break. Bill pointed out that if he were platooned and the Tigers faced the same rate of left-handed pitchers, Magglio would end up 60-70 plate appearances shy of vesting his club-option for the 2010 season:

As of tonight, Ordonez is 166 plate appearances shy of his vesting option. Through the first 84 games the Tigers have faced 27 lefty starters. At the same rate the Tigers would face 25 more lefty starters this season, and with about 4 PA’s per start Ordonez would come up 60-70 plate appearances short of the vesting option. That is significant enough to not be conspicuous or grievance-able, especially if Thomas or a bat to be named later hits well enough against righties.

Why is that important and why is it so interesting? Well, Magglio's currently a Type-A free agent according to Eddie's numbers. If the plate appearance minimum isn't reached and his option isn't vested, it would make him a free agent. I have no idea if we offered arbitration whether he would accept it next winter or not. If not, that's a potential of 2 draft picks coming back our way if/when someone were to sign him. And at his current production, a low-cost deal is possible for a team looking for a DH or a bad defensive corner outfielder.

But it gets a bit more complicated than just plate appearances. He can get his option to be automatically picked up if he has 270 games started OR 1080 PA's over the course of 2008 and 2009. Currently, he's sitting at 214 starts and 917 PA's.

For the option to be automatically picked up, he would need 163 PA's or just 29 more starts in the 2nd half. How likely is it that we face 29 left-handers in the next few months? We faced 27 in the first half of 2009.

Me thinks that the Magglio 2010 option will get picked up. And the option for 2011 will be hingent on the same requirements: 270 stars or 1080 PA's from 2009-2010. Magglio will be in Detroit, barring a trade or big time injury, for the duration of his contract.

Other Tigers:

Placido Polanco's currently sitting as a Type-B free agent. I am not in favor of letting him go. He's still playing great defense (according to UZR) and he's been the 12th most valuable player manning the keystone corner this year. Couple that with the fact that I don't think Scott Sizemore is a long-term answer at 2nd base, and I think a 2-year deal after this season would be best. Even include an option for a 3rd year and I'd be content with that, too.

Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon are both Type-B free agents. I say, try to pick up the draft picks for both. I'm a huge proponent of building a bullpen as cheaply as possible. There's got to be players who can be just as frustrating as Joel Zumaya and Rodney have been in their tenures here, and do it for a fraction of the cost.

Off the wall solution for the 2010 season:

Adam Everett is a free agent at the end of this year. He'll likely get a raise where ever he goes -- we got him on the cheap because fielding's underrated and he was coming off an injury plagued couple of seasons. This leaves a hole that I do not want Ramon Santiago to fill on his own. Here's where I come at you with some outside-the-box thinking: Brandon Inge to shortstop, Adrian Beltre to 3rd base.

If we let one of our Type -B free agents that walk at the end of the year (Rodney, Lyon?), we can essentially trade those picks for Adrian Beltre. Beltre's hurt and I believe out for the season. So he'll only drop on this list of Type-A/B free agents and he's currently a Type-B. We can sign a Type-B and let a Type-B walk and those picks will cancel them out.

Follow me here. Inge is +37 in his career in runs saved at the hot corner. Lets say he finishes this season by saving a couple of more runs and gets to +10 runs saved defensively this season. His contributions would be: 7.8, 17.9, 9.8, 2.5, and 10 from 2005 through 2009. If you weight those at .05, .10, .20, .30 and .35 from oldest to most recent, we get a weighted average of 8.39 runs saved. However, if you throw out his 2008 score where he wasn't a full time 3rd baseman, you weigh them at .1, .2, .3, and .4 you get a weighted average of 11.3 runs saved.

So, let's call him a 10 run fielder at 3rd base. The positional adjustments for the Wins Above Replacement calculations are based on what a player who was an average fielder at a position would do moving to another position. For instance, a player who's average at SS, would, based on historical data, be worth about 2.5 runs defensively at 3rd base. So if you're moving from 3rd to SS and you're an average fielder at the hot corner, we'd expect you to be about -7.5 at short.

So, if you hack off 7.5 runs from Inge's total -- but lets just call it 8 -- you still get a shortstop who is worth 2 runs defensively. He's got the athleticism and the arm.

Adrian Beltre is an elite hitter coming off a big injury. Add in a potential Type-B status and you've got a player that not many teams would be jumping at the chance of getting. Since signing his big deal with Seattle in 2005, he's put up WAR numbers of 2.5, 4.6, 3.0, 4.1 from 2005 through 2008. This year, he was at 1.3 through 73 games. If you extrapolate that over just 140 games this year, he was on pace for a 2.5 WAR season again. Over 150 games that'd be 2.67 WAR.

I don't think it's out of the realm of possibilites that Beltre could be had on a cheap, low risk deal. Say, something like 2 years, $15 million, with incentives due to his injured right shoulder.

Obviously, you only make this move by securing some sort of back-up plan at shortstop. If Beltre's shoulder acts up again, Inge can slide back to 3rd base and the back-up plan could man short for the duration of Beltre's injury.

I really don't think it's that crazy of an idea. It's just an idea that Dave Dombrowski and company won't be making.