Valuing Roy Halladay

Bill already beat me to this, but I was planning on taking a look at Roy Halladay's value versus the package we'd be giving up. The reported package asked for was Rick Porcello, Casey Crosby and Ryan Perry. Bill's got Halladay at possibly adding about 4 wins to the Tigers the rest of the way. Sky Kalkman's Trade Value Calculator had Halladay at 3 wins the rest of the way as of July 15th. He's estimated Halladay to be worth 6 Wins Above Replacement next year as well, so we'll run with that and say that Halladay will give about 9 WAR to whatever team he goes to if he's dealt before the deadline tomorrow. That's a value of $46.1 million. He makes $22.8 million over that time span, meaning he he has a net value of $23.4 million.

Victor Wang's done some great research on the value of prospects for the Hardball Times. Erik Manning's summarized the research into this table. Rick Porcello was the 7th rated pitcher (21st player overall) in Baseball America's preseason top 100 prospects. Research values that at $15.2 million in value. Casey Crosby is just 20-years-old until mid-September and was graded a C+ by John Sickels. That is valued at $2.1 million. Finally, Ryan Perry turned 22 in February, and John Sickels graded him at a solid B. That puts him at $7.3 million in value.

Total that all up, Porcello, Crosby, and Perry are valued at a collective $24.6 million. Given that Halladay's projected to provide about $23.4 million for the duration of his contract that runs through 2010, that's a very even deal.

But, here's the one drawback of the deal: Mike Ilitch and Dave Dombrowski said before the season that the payroll is pretty maxed out. Given that we haven't really shed any money and opened the season with a payroll of $115,085,145 million. In trading Porcello, Crosby, and Perry, we're not dumping more than a couple of league-minimum salaries and taking on board the full ~$7 million left this year on Halladay's salary plus the $15.8 he makes in 2010. I'm not sure the Tigers can add that type of money to the books without clearing something out first.

Speaking of money: the Tigers traded Josh Anderson to the Kansas City Royals for cash-money as Kurt dubbed it. Dayton Moore's certainly got a love-affair for bad OBP players with little to no power, huh? My condolences to Royals fans. Hopefully he isn't used as much and as poorly as Jim Leyland used him.