UPDATE, 6:33 PM: In replying to the comments, here's Washburn's Hit Tracker Online card. True home run distances of the 10 HR's allowed (one wasn't measured and it was in Anaheim) are as follows, starting with the most recent:
355
409
392
354
360
439
441
447
382
450
And of those, only the 441 foot bomb from Cuddyer, 360 foot bomb from Mike Sweeney, and the 354 foot shot from Kenji Johjima were labled "JE" which is "Just Enough's." You can't add the Carlos Pena homer in there (355-feet) because that was roped right down the right-field line.
As far as the "short porch" (in comparison to Safeco), it is true because Safeco kills right-handed hitters. That said, he's had only 4 homers allowed to left field, and of those, only the Sweeney and Johjima homers were classified as "lucky" or "just enough." Cuddyer's was barely out to dead centerfield.
His average true distance and speed off the bat is 402.9 feet -- 403 -- and 103.71 MPH. Does anyone know the average true distance and SOB in the major leagues this year?
In prepping for an article to write for Beyond the Boxscore (and is moving very slowly at the moment), I've compiled the UZR totals from Fangraphs for both infield and outfield defense for each team.
Some clues Washburn would regress in Detroit:
Seattle infield defense: +9 runs above average
Detroit infield defense: +17 runs above average
Seattle outfield defense: +56 runs above average
Detroit outfield defense: +18 runs above average
Detroit's defense has been upper echelon this year, but the outfield defense doesn't compare to the M's. Heck, Franklin Guttierrez has been worth 20.9 runs this year in the outfield by his lonesome. Yes, one player has saved more runs above the average defender for the position than all of Detroit's outfield defenders combined.
Add in that Safeco Field favors left-handed hitters and kills right-handed power bats (or right-handed bats in general) while Detroit suppresses both a bit (not as much as Safeco), and the BABIP factor and Washburn was screaming regression to the mean in a big time way. Unfortunately, we gave up a back-end starter under club control until 2014 for him.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
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What side of the fence was Gutierrez playing on when Washburn was with Seattle?
ReplyDeleteYou're just not going to convince me giving up Luke French (he of the 7 runs allowed to the Angels yesterday) was exactly a step backwards for the Tigers. Given that starting pitching is not exactly an organizational weakness and he is at best a fifth starter, take him.
ReplyDeleteThe minor league, that we'll have to wait and see on.
The price for Washburn wasn't too high, and the results he could have been expected to have with a reasonable step backwards were much better than what he has actually done.
Maybe you can find a home run distance spray chart and convince me that way.
What you stated in an earlier post about this Washburn trade being a lateral move at best, is now looking like a regressive move at best. Washburn has quite simply STUNK. He's given the team nothing, except more reasons not to try and re-sign him after the season. The same thing can be said of Aubrey Huff. While they both have some time to turn things around, I just don't see it happening. They both look like fish out of water, uncomfortable, and afraid to make mistakes, which just accentuates their incompetence. As much as I applauded the hire of Dombrowski when it was first made, it's beginning to like like he's on a downward cycle, which began when he traded a potential top of the rotation starter like Jurjjens for a statue named Renteria, followed by giving a 3 year extension to an immature and degrading Dontrelle Willis, sight unseen. If I were Mike Ilitch, DD would be on an extremely short leash about now, one bad trade away from a firing squad.
ReplyDeleteMike,
ReplyDeleteAs was noted in fangraphs, Washburn's BABIP has not regressed. His HR/FB has not only regressed but completely turned itself around in mere weeks, however, and this has lead the turnaround to his numbers.
Seattle's OF defense is better, but you're going to have an awful hard time writing that piece credibly if you try to blame Washburn's slide on anything other than Comerica Park's left field porch, Detroit's humidity, or regression in general.
Bill: Gutierrez has played every game this year in CF.
ReplyDeleteKurt: That's fine. I just think you're undervaluing club/cost-controlled players. I'll look for the HR plots and edit the post.
Nicker: I can't speak specifically for Detroit (Maybe billfer can), but the West Side of the state has had the coldest, and least humid, summer in probably close to 50 years -- maybe ever. There were a couple of weeks where we were extremely humid, but that couldn't have exceeded more than 15 times this summer. So, I'm not buying that if Detroit had anything like we did on the west side of the state.
He also led the league or was near the league lead in DER before the acquisition. Great defense, a great stadium and some luck led to an ERA that is completely unsustainable for a pitcher like him.
ReplyDeleteWith that said, I do think he will improve a little bit. He is a 4.5 ERA-type pitcher who can eat innings. I'm confident he can at least do that in September.
Scott, I think he'll be regressing towards the better -- while I don't think it's all been luck, but there has been some sort of bad luck.
ReplyDeleteYes, a 20% HR/FB rate is unsustainable in the same way his .247 BABIP is (though that still hasn't regressed much).
ReplyDeleteIt's pretty clear he was tremendously lucky in Seattle and has been tremendously unlucky in Detroit.
Scottwood's post is spot on.
KURT writes: "You're just not going to convince me giving up Luke French (he of the 7 runs allowed to the Angels yesterday) was exactly a step backwards for the Tigers. Given that starting pitching is not exactly an organizational weakness and he is at best a fifth starter, take him."
ReplyDeleteAs Mike said earlier, you're really undervaluing club-controlled major leaguers. French doesn't even have to be a league-average starter to be worth millions over the next five years. If he consistently performs like a back-end, 4th/5th starter, Zdurnieck will laugh in Dombo's retarded face.
Also, if starting pitching isn't an organizational weakness, then why are you swapping a cheap pitcher for an expensive one? Why are you adding a soft-tossing left-handed flyballer and giving up a soft-tossing left-handed flyballer + a live arm?
My concern is that Dombrowski has NO IDEA how to evaluate players effectively. It's not the results that matter to me. (Well, they matter to me as a rabid Tigers fan, but not when it comes to critiquing Dombo's decisions). It's the PROCESS. The process was bad. He saw something shiny, and he wanted it. He saw JWash's illusory ERA and thought it would make a big difference. If he had any concept of variance and luck, he would have told Zdurnieck to pawn his wares somewhere else.
The process is bad. He's out of his league at the moment, and unless he makes some serious adjustments to how he values performance and players, the Tigers will need to draft very well to remain relevant.