Right Field: The outfield needs a makeover, and it's going to start here. Trade Jeremy Bonderman to the Cubs for Milton Bradley. Both make roughly $10 million per year. Bradley is signed for one more year than Bonderman, but the Cubs are desperate to get rid of him, so it's conceivable they'd pay that final year if the Tigers take him.It's interesting and outside the box, for sure. I know the Cubs are anxious to get rid of the PR Nightmare that has been the I-won't-bite-my-tongue and contract that comes with Bradley, but I'm not sure they'll deal for another terrible contract of a guy who can't stay healthy and is making minor improvements.
Jim Leyland is known for working well with head cases. Gary Sheffield didn't produce in Detroit, but he didn't make waves either. So what you say? Well, in NY he was calling Derek Jeter "not all the way black" and Joe Torre a slave master. He's had nothing negative to say about his Detroit tenure. Bradley is not as crazy as Sheff, this can work.
Before signing with the Cubs, Bradley had a career-year in Texas, with a .999 OPS. Once he escapes the racism in Wrigleyville and comes to the more laid back environment in Detroit, he'll be just fine.
And for those who think Bonderman's still young and can bounce back? You might be right. But it's time to get some of the Seay/Lyon/Bonderman radio-controlled car driving crowd out of here, you know? The Starter: Milton Bradley
Quick thought without doing any math on it: I like the deal and if it's on the table, Detroit should take it and run.
Now, let's do some back-of-the-envelope math after the jump . . .
Bradley put up a .345 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) which, over the course of 700 PA's is about 10 runs better than the 2009 average wOBA which was .329. However, Bradley only had 473 Plate Appearances in 2009 and has averaged just 379 PA's per season, though he hasn't always been a starter. Since 2006 he's averaged 408 PA's per year.
The question is what does he project towards in the future. Let's just roll with a .350 wOBA for simplicities sake. That's less than his career .357 wOBA.
If we put the average wOBA at .334 (it's usually around .334), that would put Bradley's offensive talents at 10 runs above average over 700 PA's.
Weighting his defense over the last 4 seasons in right field, I get about 1 run saved above average.
So we're now at 11 runs above average. Knock off 7.5 runs for being a right fielder. Kick in 20 runs to make it Runs Above Replacement Level rather than above average, and you get:
11 - 7.5 + 20 = 23.5.
However, this is for 100% playing time. Since Bradley's averaged 408 PA's the last four years, we'll give him 410 to make it semi-round, and that equates to 58.6% playing time -- essentially 60%.
Multiply the 23.5 by 60% playing time and you now get 14.1 Runs Above Replacement which then becomes 1.4 Wins Above Replacement (WAR).
There you have it, a rough estimate would have Bradley at 1.4 wins above a Quad-A outfielder that would play for the league minimum.
Over the next two seasons, Bradley is owed $21 million ($9 million 2010 and $12 million in 2011). Bradley at 1.4 WAR and deducting 0.5 WAR for aging, 0.9 in 2010 would produce values of $6.56 million in 2010 and $4.36 million in 2011 -- totaling $10.92 million in value.
Essentially, this projection would mean Bradley would be overpaid by about $10 million over the next two years.
What if we up Bradley's value. His wOBA's in 2006, 2007 and 2008 were .361, .405, .423. So, the .350 is probably a low-ball estimate. Let's bump that up to around .380. That would put him at:
Offense: +28 runs above average
Defense: +1
Position: -7.5
Replacement: +20
That equals 41.5 Runs Above Average, but scaled back to 60% playing time, 25 Runs Above Average -- or a 2.5 Wins Above Replacement Player. If we give him that in 2010 and knock off 0.5 for aging, he would be providing $11.4 million in value in 2010 and $9.2 million in 2011. That's totaling $20.6 million in value, very reasonable.
So what am I saying in all of this? Well, I think he'll rebound offensively. Probably not to a level of .380 wOBA which would make him a 2.5 win player in just 60% playing time, but something around league-average in 2010 isn't out of the question -- and that is quite the feat considering we're only expecting him to play 60% of the time. If we take the 41.5 RAA in 100% playing time above and prorate it out to 85% playing time (the normal starting amount), we're looking at a 3.5 Win player.
If we can get him in a bad-contract swap for Jeremy Bonderman, I am 100% behind this move. I just don't expect it to cost just that.
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Milton Bradley is an extreme head case, immature, self-absorbed, and basically a horrible human being. Why in the hell would anybody want this reprobate on their team? He's very quickly worn out his welcome everywhere he's played. I don't care if he can play baseball or not, he's garbage who ought to be thrown out with the rest of the trash. To hell with Milton Bradley.
ReplyDeleteRobert, that's a completely defensible position. I don't feel exactly the same way, but all your points are 100% valid.
ReplyDeleteI don't share Robert's position, but I do wonder if you're at all worried about Bradley's Magglio-like ISO dive this year back to .140 playing in a preeminent hitter's ballpark. Who's to say in the post-steroid era whether his power is coming back? He'll be 32 next year, after all.
ReplyDeletePlus, at this point he's a slightly below average outfielder. Slightly below average defensive outfielder with sagging power and a bad contract. I think we already have enough of those.
Nicker,
ReplyDeleteBradley had an Iso of .194, .171, .239, .242, and .140 from 2005-onward.
I don't expect him to get back to the .240's, however, I don't see why .200 or even the .180 range is out of the question. That's perfectly fine given that he walks at a near-elite clip. His value is great even if his power isn't all that special. He still posted a .345 wOBA this year which is, over 700 PA's, about 10 runs better than the average hitter in 2009, which posted a .329 wOBA.
So, his value really comes in his great pitch selection.
I lived in San Diego when Milton played there and got to see him blow his top personally a few times. He's a Major League As*hole and should not be allowed back to the Cubs, let alone my Tigers.
ReplyDeleteThe Cubs would jump at that one. I'm afraid that knee hasn't been the same since Bud Black brought him down. Plus that extra contract year is scary.
ReplyDeleteEric
Why do you think that knee hasn't been the same since Bud Black Terry-Tate'd him? He rebounded nicely in Texas and I think he will rebound next year, as well. He won't be an elite player but I think he's still an above-average player with a great bat.
ReplyDelete