I'm only inspired to write this after Eddie Bajek and Kurt both made similar statements on Twitter. Safety in numbers I suppose.
Here's why I think it is time:
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I had said:The Tigers everyday lineup is old. There's no denying that. It's also very expensive. There's no denying that. And Detroit and the state of Michigan aren't exactly in an economic boom (unless it's a bad explosion-type sound). There's no denying that. But dumping Granderson won't really alleviate any payroll space given how little he makes in 2010. So I'm not buying that excuse for trading him. The scenario that makes sense to me, is if Dave Dombrowski thinks this Tigers team needs to get rebuilt. And that's not such a radical notion. Consider this: The Tigers won 86 games while getting outscored this season. Justin at Beyon the Boxscore's rankings weren't flattering of the Tigers, either. Their Component Win Percentage (in the table that I linked to; cW%) was just .490. They get a boost for being an American League team (and playing a tougher schedule than the NL) but without that adjustment they, based on runs scored and allowed estimates, played like a .490 win% team -- that's a 79-win team.I thought the Tigers were at the same talent level with Curtis Granderson as they were last year. By that, I mean, I was not expecting a playoff run this year. You just can't plan on the AL Central being that bad again next year. Now that he was dealt, at best we are as good as last year, but likely we're a worst team. This dampers postseason aspirations.
Moving Justin Verlander would bring a huge return -- larger than Roy Halladay would net because he's younger and can't be a free agent until 2012. And you're getting him in his prime. The Detroit Tigers everyday lineup is mediocre and old. Short of landing Matt Holliday and John Lackey, we aren't competing for a playoff spot. So do we perpetuate the mediocrity that is this particular ball club, or do we go full bore into rebuilding mode? I think it's the latter.
We have a lot of money coming off the books after this season, with just $49.536 million on the books in the form of Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen and Rick Porcello. Unfortunately, the free agent market next winter leaves a lot to be desired. There are noteable hitters, such as Albert Pujols, Carlos Pena, Lance Berkman, and Joe Mauer but all of those either don't fit a need (first basemen) or are going to be too expensive (Joe Mauer). Once you move passed those players, it's a who's-who of great players ... from the 1990's: Scott Rolen, Jason Varitek, Mike Lowell, Eric Chavez, Derek Jeter, Christian Guzman, Edgar Renteria and so on and so on.
Not to completely disparage that free agent class, there are some good players like Jose Reyes of the Mets but there's just too much uncertainty. Can the Mets actually let him walk? No way Jeter hits free agency. Ditto for Pujols or Berkman. So what good is money if there's nothing good to spend it on? Do we want to go the route of long, expensive contracts to old bats that are going to be entering the decline phase of their careers? I don't.
I know rebuilding isn't sexy. And it's not something that will please the fans -- hell, weren't we rebuilding since 1987? But, no matter how much I disagree or fear about the way Dave Dombrowski's evaluating talent, I feel way better about him doing it than someone like Randy Smith.
Trading Justin Verlander would bring in a very big return of prospects -- both major league ready and still a couple of years away. Think the Bartolo Colon deal in a perfect world. The Indians got Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, and Lee Stevens back in that deal. And that came on the heels of the Indians finishing 91-71 and winning the AL Central in 2001. By June 27th, 2002, Bartolo Colon was in Montreal trying to pitch the Expos into the postseason.
That deal is not the norm. Most deals don't produce two all-star players, let alone three of them (Sizemore, Phillips, Lee). But that is the upside. Had they held on to Colon, no one would've complained. However, they wouldn't have the cornerstone of their offense in Grady Sizemore today, nor would they have had the guys to flip for more prospects like Cliff Lee was this past summer.
The move would be a bold one. First and foremost, Mike Ilitch would have to sign off on it and he most likely wouldn't. Secondly, the negative backlash for dealing Granderson and Verlander in the same off season would be enormous. I don't know how to quantify it but Bill guesstimated about 3000 season ticket holders might not renew their tickets. That's 250K tickets. That'd surely double. However, not every team can rebuild -- or cross the bridge as the Red Sox have been calling it this off season -- and still be very competitive. We don't have tat luxury and neither do 90% of the teams in the major leagues. In fact, to go nearly half a decade without having to completely rebuild is an impressive feat in and of itself.
I just think it's time.
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As you said, Verlander isn't a free agent for two more years. After 2010, 40 to near 60 million is off the books. The Tigers could then afford to sign him to one of those 100 plus million contracts. As for the hitter to compliment Cabrera, just like when they traded quantity with some yet to be determined quality prospects, another similar trade could be made to bring a hitter to pair with him in the lineup.
ReplyDeleteBut the problem is we don't have the quality to bring back another elite or very good level hitter. We WOULD have that after a Verlander trade, potentially. Or, we can acquire one FOR Verlander and then just continue to rebuild and in 3-4 years have a young team like Tampa Bay that will contend while Cabrera is still here.
ReplyDelete1. Does JV want to re-sign here?
ReplyDelete2. Will we offer up enough money to keep him?
3. Do we think his abilities will remain long enough to command such a long term, big money contract even with the risks involved (i.e. injuries)?
Those are some of the questions, DD needs to think about. If JV won't be here past 2011, then it is definitely something we need to explore. Signing any pitcher to a long term contract is also very risky.
On the other hand, JV was an 8 win pitcher last year and CHONE projects him to post a 4.6 WAR this season. His K/BB ratio last year took a giant leap forward from previous career norms and studies suggest that pitchers experience a change in "true talent level" more so than hitters do. If a K/BB ratio of 4.00+ is to be expected going forward and he continues to keep his HR/FB ratio below league average (some pitchers are better than others at keeping their HR/FB % below the regressed league average and he's done so for 4 straight years), then we have one of the top 5-10 pitchers in the game for the foreseeable future. And, he's in his prime, eats A LOT of innings, his HR/9 ratio has dropped every year and he is a high K guy. Being a fly ball pitcher hurts his value, but not that much considering he does not allow many HR's.
Long story short, it would be worth it to explore, especially if he's gone after 2011. But, based on 09, he is an Ace and those are incredibly hard to find. His contact % was the second lowest in the AL, he had the highest swinging strike % of any AL pitcher and he threw the second highest percentage of pitches inside the strike zone in the AL. That and a decreasing HR/9 ratio bodes incredibly well for the future. It would have to be a heck of package in return.
End rambling.
I am glad someone said this and not sure if trading Verlander is a horrible idea. Afterall there is still Porcello, maybe Scherzer if he stays healthy/a starter along with Crosy and Turner if they turn out as hope (for 2012?). No I dont want to lose JV cuz I am more attached to him than Curtis but if there is any strength in the minors its a few starters (and apparently an arse load of releivers). Also, why not give guys like Wells, Ramirez a shot to maybe put a good year to see if they have any trade value.
ReplyDeleteAlso, just to defend Dombrowski he has a good, if not great, track record in these situations. In Montreal he built a virtual division winner in the 1994 strike season and the Marlins won two championships with his players(1997 they had a considerable amount of free agents but other years were mostly homegrown or young players from trades).
Scott: I don't disagree with anything you wrote. However, I think that it is time to start the rebuilding process. I don't think we need to do it by this time next week because we have time, but I think we should be rebuilding at some point.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous 2: I agree that Dombrowski's overall track record has been good, however I'm questioning his track record recently. He admitted to bad contracts, but chastised those that discredited the Bonderman deal. I agree with him on that, but the other ones are indefensible -- like giving Willis $29 million without even throwing a pitch in Detroit. Couple that with his love (seemingly) for someone like Austin Jackson, his apparent nixing of a Scherzer-Jackson straight-up trade, and a few other puzzling moves in the past couple of seasons, I don't have near the trust in his leadership and talent evaluation that I used to.
I haven't been a very big Dombo fan for a while now -- the Willis thing was indefensible, the Jarrod Washburn and Aubrey Huff deals were just retarded, and that Renteria deal lead to, not kidding, two broken keyboards and a half-broken mouse when I read about it -- but I didn't realize how little faith I had in him until today, when I thought:
ReplyDelete"Man, I'm so glad the Tigers are trimming payroll, because, holy crap, how much would they be giving Rodney and Lyon right now?"
And I'm on record as being pretty happy with the Granderson/Jackson trade.
I think, in the long run, this might be a good baseball move. But with Maggs, Guillen, and Inge all nearly gone, and the central up for grabs, I would rather see the Tigers go for it in 2010, and 2011. I think they have a chance to be competitive in '10, and to possibly be very good in '11, and still be young and talented enough to rebuild without getting a huge haul from a Verlander trade.
ReplyDeleteFrom the moment Grandy was traded, I hoped that was the signal we were going to focus on signing JV long-term. What would really drive me crazy would be if we held onto JV in 2010, then traded him just before our big chance in 2011. But hopefully that won't happen.