But, what should we expect?
Well, the ZiPS projections for the remainder of the 2009 season has him projected for a slash line of .265/.331/.439 which would be a wOBA of .334. The league average wOBA is currently sitting at .329. If we give Huff 4 plate appearances per game, he'll have about 180 PA's to do some damage. If you convert the wOBA's into runs, you get roughly 0.78 runs above the average hitter. Let's be generous and say he goes on a big tear and outplays his projection, we'll call him a +1 run above average hitter the rest of the way.
Defensively, Huff's only been a first baseman in 2009. In fact, since 2007, he's only played 48 games at the hot corner, so if he takes over for the hurting/slumping Brandon Inge, it's a gamble. However, eyeballing the numbers, he looks to be an average defender at both 1st base and 3rd base. So, we'll just go with average, or 0 runs saved/allowed defensively.
Positionally, let's just give him the biggest boost we can and say Inge can't play 3rd the rest of the way. This is how Huff would reach his peak value, so we'll roll with it. Positional adjustment over the course of 162 games for a 3rd baseman is +2.5 runs. Pro-rated to 45 games, that's 0.69 runs in his favor.
Add this up: 1 for batting, 0 for defense, 0.69 for position and we get a grand total of 1.69 runs above average. To get to replacement level, we're looking at around another 5.5 run bonus in Huff's favor, that makes him 7.19 runs above replacement -- call it 7.25 for ease. To get wins, you divide by 10 (actually 10.5, but 10 is just cleaner) and you then get 0.725 wins.
Aubrey Huff, if he plays an average 3rd base, out-performs his projections for the rest of the season at the plate would bring around 0.75 wins. Three-quarters of a win. That is $3.6 million in on-field value. He'll make about $2 million the rest of the way, which means he's got $1.6 million surplus value to the Tigers.
But, that's not where his entire value lies. He'll be a Type-A free agent this winter. Dave Dombrowski is notorious for not going to arbitration, so I'm not sure if he'll get offered arbitration or what. We'll say he does and he turns it down and Detroit picks up two draft picks in return. Victor Wang's done research that says that's around $5 million in total value.
$1.6 million in on-field surplus value + $5 million in off-field surplus value = $6.6 million total surplus value.
But, the Tigers traded away Brett Jacobson. John Sickels rated him a B- pitcher, but we'll call him a B for this example. That is worth $5.5 million. But, Jacobson's one of the 84 college relievers Detroit took in the 2008 draft, and that lowers his worth. Lets cut that in half since relievers grow on trees. So, he's got a value of $2.75 million, now.
$6.6 million in total Aubrey Huff value - $2.75 million in Brett Jacobson value = $3.85 million in total surplus value in the Detroit Tigers favor.
Now, that 0.75 Wins Above Replacement figure is an absolute peak value for Huff -- full time 3rd baseman, average defensively. He's probably more in the 0.25 to 0.5 WAR range. If he were...
0.25 WAR, that'd lower his value to $4.3 surplus value; the total deal to $1.55 million in surplus value in Detroit's favor.
0.5 WAR, that'd lower his value to $5.5 surplus value; the total deal to $2.75 million in surplus value in Detroit's favor.
So, any way you slice it, Detroit wins the trade and marginally help themselves towards winninga a division title. Any little bit helps, though I agree with Kurt when he says:
He brings a veteran bat and should immediately make the club better. Not by leaps and bounds mind you, but better none-the-less.We're not leaps and bounds better, but we are better.
Edit: Forgot to mention that I like that we didn't give up my favorite of the college reliever 2008 draftee's: Robbie Weinhardt. I thought he was better than Ryan Perry coming out of college.
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Better tomorrow than today, I'll take it.
ReplyDeletePlus you never know when theory and reality will mesh. Maybe he gets a hit with runners on base yesterday and hey, you got your win right there!
His impact might be minimal on some teams, but Detroit just hits so bad, it's got to be a step up for the Tigers.
In any case, I'm glad they did something.
Oh, I agree Kurt. I know it comes off in a major downplaying sort of way, but every little bit helps when you're a bad offensive club trying to hold off the White Sox. This deal would've been even better 10 days ago, and would be worse if they pulled the trigger tomorrow. I'm a fan of the deal, definitely.
ReplyDeleteI think this analysis is missing a little bit of subtlety.
ReplyDelete1) Value Above Replacement is fine and dandy when we don't know what, exactly, we're replacing a player with, but in Huff's case, we do. We're replacing, possibly, some wretched Raburn-style defense (and, good Jesus, it's about as bad as can be) and his .332 ZIPS projected wOBA going forward. We're also probably replacing some Clete Thomas/Carlos Guillen/pu pu platter LH PAs at DH as well. (Aside: what kind of lineup do we envision Leyland trotting out against righties and lefties?)
2) Much of Huff's value is tied up on his ability to play league-average 3B, and to do it over 69 games. He's been below-average as a 3B over his career, and despite his solid UZR numbers this year, he's probably closer to a -5 run 3B than a league-average one. I'd guess he plays fewer than half his games at third, and ends up DHing more than anything else.
3) Are you sure Huff is going to qualify as a Type A free-agent? We should at least control for (a) the probability that he is a Type B and (b) the probability that he is NOT offered arbitration and (c) the possibility that he accepts the offer, thereby removing the surplus value of the draft-picks entirely (but replacing it with a surplus/deficit for the ArbAwardSalary that Huff gets.)
I think the trade would be better examined through the lens of "Value Over Current Options," or some kind of "Value Over Bench" analysis.
Anyway, by little brother pointed me in your direction, so expect a few more of these annoying comments over the next month or so.
Cheers,
Derek
Derek: I wrote this quickly and gave the qualifiers I did to give Huff the MOST value possible. At the end of the day, this is still, at best, a marginal move. If you were to break it down to where he'll likely be playing and add the proper positional adjustments, I agree that it's very, very minimal. I plan to make another post to analyze it further, but that might go up on Beyond the Boxscore over on SB Nation.
ReplyDeleteThanks for coming around and thank your brother for pointing you this direction. I appreciate, and look forward, to your comments in the future.
Statistics are fine, but there's this:
ReplyDeleteHuff has the ability to go on a .400/.450/.600 tear for a couple weeks and carry the team. He hasn't done it this year, and perhaps he's due. There's no way we could hope for that kind of production from Raburn or Thames, and Thomas, while capable, hasn't been looking that sharp lately at all. Huff's best is better than the guys he's going to take ABs from, and if he gets hot, he could end up being worth a few wins.
In real life, wins come in whole numbers, not fractions.
Probabilities are fine for abstract discussions of value, but the realities include harder-to-quantify benefits such as:
1) Having a better hitter behind Cabby (I think Huff bats 5th a LOT for this team).
2) The team will face less RH pitching, improving the looks other lefties get
3) More rest for Inge
Also, I don't think your calculation of value takes into account the salary that would be paid to the prospect traded away -- that's money saved as surely as Huff's salary is part of the cost.
Scot,
ReplyDeleteDoesn't Huff also have the same chances of hitting .200/.300./380 the rest of the way, as well? I mean, he has really fallen off this season. It's possible that "he's due" (I don't believe that, but I've been wrong plenty of times, and I have no problems in being wrong, either), but it's just as possible that he brings his league average bat and little defense and doesn't improve while with Detroit.
Wins do come in whole numbers in reality, yes. However, when breaking down the player's values, those fractions add up to whole number wins. Over the remainder of the season, there's plenty of players for Detroit that will be worth fractions of wins -- be it 2.something wins or 0.something wins.
Addressing your three points...
1) I don't believe in line-up protection, all that much. Pitchers pitch to get guys out. While they may waste a 3-0 pitch against Cabrera because he's the Tigers biggest bat (clearly), the majority of the at-bats they'll be trying to get him out.
2) I'm not sure what you mean by this. The team will face less RHP to give LHP better looks? I'm not following. If you could clarify, that'd be great.
3) Inge could use the rest, I agree. Then again, in the heat of a division race, his defense still probably makes him the best option available at 3rd.
Also, I don't believe that the value I tagged on Jacobson includes his salary, however, he's going to make league minimum for 3 years if/when he gets to the majors, and that's what, $1.2 million over 3 years? That's peanuts to a major league team and wouldn't change much at all.
If the Tigers are stupid enough to offer him arbitration, there's no chance he walks away. So I don't see how you can include the draft pick value in each calculation. I understand your point was to show the maximum possible value, but you also said something like, "any way you slice it, the Tigers win this trade." Without the draft pick compensation, which is a near impossibility, they don't.
ReplyDeleteJeff, I agree. At the time of writing that piece I was buying into the deal. I took a different look at it again the day after and I'm not a fan of the deal.
ReplyDelete