And it comes in the form of Alex Avila.
Wait, what? A Double-A catcher who has become the teams best prospect and is just about 13 months removed from being drafted is getting the call to the show? Apparently. Billfer, Ian, and Kurt all have their reactions (and I'm sure Lee and Matt will chime in soon, too) posted, and I encourage you to read them since I'm going to echo all of their sentiments.
Like Ian said, this smacks of 2007 and Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller getting rushed to the show. Like Bill said, Avila's struggled in the last 28 days posting a .191/.280/.393 line. His Major League Equivalency, according to Minor League Splits, for the entire season is .204/.280/.333. Is that really an improvement over Dusty Ryan's .160/.276/.200 given that he's getting one plate appearance for every 11 that Gerald Laird gets.
I get that he's left-handed and we could use a left-handed bat. I get that apparently Dusty Ryan isn't a favorite of Jim Leyland's (shown by his playing time) and whether that's due to him being a right-handed hitter or not is anyone's guess (has he ever addressed it?), but this move doesn't make sense anyway you slice it. Not to me, and apparently, not to the rest of the Tigers blogosphere that have chimed in thus far.
Reasons why this is bad:
-He'll accrue service time that he otherwise wouldn't have. And that's precious, no matter how little it is until the rosters expand.
-He now must stay on the 40 man roster this winter when he didn't need to be on it in the first place. This gives us less flexibility in the offseason.
-Dusty Ryan gets jettisoned for no reason whatsoever, despite posting a total line of .261/.342/.391 -- a line remarkably similar to a catcher we traded for in the offseason. Oh, and he's just 24 years old, still.
It's not that Avila's an awful player -- he's got an above average bat for the position, has a great arm and quick release as his Double-A caught-stealing numbers are fantastic (last check, over 50% gunned down), and he's only getting better in his time behind the dish. But, he was a 3rd baseman deep into his career at the University of Alabama and, thus, is still raw behind the plate. If someone like Dusty Ryan who's come up through the minors as a catcher, posted an acceptable line for a catcher, and isn't even 25 until September 2nd can't stick in the back-up role, then why should Avila be any different?
This just brings immense flashbacks of a certain outfield prospect getting rushed to the bigs and then disappointing. I don't expect much of anything from Avila in the majors.
Since he's coming up, he better be getting 2 starts every 5 games to both spell Laird and get enough use to warrant starting his service time clock and putting him on the 40-man roster.
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
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... This is unbelievable. I understand wanting to spell Laird, but I agree completely with your "What exactly is wrong with Dusty Ryan?" question.
ReplyDeleteI'm pretty sure part of the offensive woes stem almost directly from Jim Leyland's inability to put together a reasonable lineup. Granted, the Tigers don't have any true on-base guys (minus Cabby), but let's be honest -- Placido Polanco may be the worst every day number 2 hitter in baseball. His value comes almost completely from his ability to put the ball in play and hit for a high average. He nearly never walks, which can be somewhat forgiven if he's able to sustain a .330 BA. Unfortunately, he's nowhere near that and has an OBP a tad over .300 last time I checked. The Tigers can't continue to waste the number two spot on him if he's doing nothing to help the offense (need I mention he doesn't hit for ANY power?). He still holds a lot of value, because he's nifty with the glove, but he really hurts them in the two spot.
Combine that with the fact that Leyland continues to feel like the 3 hole should be filled with Ordonez or Thomas (both terrible choices) and it's pretty easy to see where some of their run problems are coming from.
The lineup, using mainly the three-slash numbers (I haven't gotten around to checking everyone's wOBA numbers) would be a major upgrade if were simply shuffled around to look something like this:
1. Thomas/(Inge, maybe, if the power numbers stay down but his OBP stays fairly high, which, I don't think it is)
2. Guillen
3. Cabrera (Like him batting in the first inning with his on-base numbers and two power guys behind him)
4. Granderson
5. Thames
6. Inge
7. Polanco
8. Laird
9. Everett
Now maybe I'm crazy, and that's what I need you to address. Am I stupid for thinking that this type of reshuffling of the lineup could really increase production? Is my lineup even very good? Do I even know what I'm talking about?
It's just... After every single one of Leyland's lineup changes, it's hard for me to believe he hasn't come anywhere close to the correct one (and he can't if he keeps Polly in the two hole) and it just seems so obvious to me... Am I crazy?
Clearly the management views Avila as a future star and Dusty Ryan as road kill, thus I don't have a problem with them bringing him up. As far as I'm concerned, they can make him the every day catcher and spell him occasionally with Laird. Laird has been on a season long mission to prove why he's never been the every day catcher for a team. He simply cannot handle the job. This team cannot afford to have another automatic out in the lineup and that is exactly what Laird is. You cannot have your regular catcher hitting a powerless .240. The sooner Gerald leaves the Tigers, the better.
ReplyDeleteBirchman: I think overall, the difference between whatever lineup Leyland puts out and the optimal lineup is negligible at best. But, I will write something up for a post in the next day or two because even though it won't be a big difference in terms of runs (I don't think), any little bit helps in such a close division race.
ReplyDeleteRobert: Nearly every team has big holes at catcher. If you removed Joe Mauer, the catcher spot for all AL teams hit a combined 254/.315/.402.
That is better than Laird, but it's not absurdly better. Catcher's a tough spot to find good, consistent offensive production due to the beat they take behind the plate.
Since offense is the secondary property of the catcher, defense and handling the pitching staff comes first (in my opinion). For that, I'll just point you towards this post over at Beyond the Boxscore attempting to quantify catcher defense in a runs number. Laird comes out as the 2nd best starting catcher in the major leagues this year, saving over 16 runs defensively.
Laird, thus far, has been worth -9.5 runs offensively above the theoretical replacement level hitter (any quad-A hitter that can be had for league minimum is the "replacement player"). But, if he's saved 16 runs above average on defense, that makes him worth 6.5 runs on offense and defense. You add in a positional adjustment for being a catcher (most demanding spot on the field), which thus far has been just under 7 runs, Laird comes out at ~13-14 runs above the average replacement player -- and that's valuable.
Note: Fangraphs, one of the links I gave you, doesn't count defensive data for catcher's because it's hard to quantify. So, his WAR there is 0.8 and not the 1.4 it possibly could be with the 16 defensive runs added in.
So, in short, he's done a great job handling the job as he's shut down the running game and the pitchers seem to like having him behind the dish.
Mike,
ReplyDeleteYou state a great many statistics in your defense of Laird and I'm not going to dispute them, but the undeniable fact is that he's barely hitting his weight and without any power. That's unacceptable in a major league catcher. He's good defensively, but he still has to hit and he is not. While he got off to a good start, he's been slowly degrading with each passing month of the schedule. By the end of the regular season I wouldn't be surprised if he's hitting below .200. While the Tigers management may value Laird's defensive prowess, it's because of his woeful offensive production that Avila was promoted. If Avila can hit, he will play more than Laird, and that is as it should be. I repeat, the sooner Laird is in the rear view mirror, the better. You and I haven't agreed on anything yet, have we :-)
Robert: It's okay that we don't agree -- that's what is great about baseball. We're definitely coming from two different angles. The offense does need a boost, but any uptick in offense from Avila will negate what will assuredly be a defensive down tick, given that Laird is an elite level defender.
ReplyDeleteI know defense is hard to quantify (that goes doubly for Catchers), but I think it'd be trading defensive runs for offensive runs. And a run is a run is a run. So, I don't see a big point in doing that. I do agree that Laird needs to play less, however.
Please keep these articles up. Every time you write something about a player, he seems to go on a hot streak.
ReplyDeletePolanco has never been this hot before. He's almost hitting .500 over the past week (.484, 15 for 31).
Avila has been tremendous also.
No problem: I'm happy to be wrong. However, the ends, to me, don't justify the means and I still disagree with Alex Avila's call-up.
ReplyDelete