Revisiting 2009 Draftee Wade Gaynor

Around this time last year, I took an interest in trying to adjust the offensive numbers put up in the college baseball landscape so I could get a grasp on what constitutes "good" offensive numbers in college baseball. With the metal bats, 300+ division 1 teams, and a talent pool that is very, very spread out, the elite college hitters put up offensive numbers that compared to what we're used to Major Leaguers putting up are just mind boggling.

I've written about my methods over at Baseball Analysts last winter. Overall, my methods really haven't strayed from that article. That is still how I correct for the park factor and for the strength of schedule.

The only things that have changed have been the weightings I give the categories in my "score" category. My "score" is a hodge-podge formula that is completely back-of-the-envelope on what I think the weightings should be -- like heavily penalizing K% (strikeouts divided by plate appearances) and rewarding BB%. I also use adjusted Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) and Isolated Power (IsoP; slugging percentage minus batting average) that get adjusted by park factors and strength of schedule. I'm really just rambling the things I wrote in the article I already linked to.

Before I move on I want to say this: The biggest single-season sample size I have is 354 plate appearances. So, immediately the Small Sample Size alarms should be ringing in your head. Most players are coming in around 250 PA's which is about 35% of a full, major league season. That is the biggest thing to keep in mind.

The second biggest thing to keep in mind is that these always, always need scouting reports to accompany them. Sure this is fun and all (for a nerd like myself), but the numbers don't mean anything if there's glaring holes in a players swing or someone isn't going to stick in center field like they have during their college careers.

With all that said, I've just input the numbers for the Sun Belt Conference and took a look at Wade Gaynor, the Tigers 3rd round draft pick out of Western Kentucky University. Lets see what they say after the jump. . .

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First, let's start off with some scouting information. He was listed at 6-foot-4, 213-pounds on his WKU bio page. Now, when you go in the 3rd round, 89th overall, you're probably a decently touted prospect. PG Crosschecker's had him 141st best prospect on their Top 250 2009 Draft Prospects report this passed May. When drafted, here's the blurb they posted about Gaynor: 

SCOUTING PROFILE: Gaynor was a mild follow, at best, on most scouting follow lists entering the 2009 season-somewhat surprising after he hit .347 with 13 home runs and 24 doubles as a sophomore for Western Kentucky. His profile gradually changed throughout the spring, though, as some of those doubles from a year ago became home runs and his power matured into a significant tool. Gaynor hit a loud .371-25-79 in leading Western Kentucky to an NCAA regional berth. He also proved to be much more of a complete offensive player as he drew 35 walks and stole 21 bases in 25 attempts. Gaynor has a long, smooth swing and has developed increasing bat speed as he has matured physically. He feasted on fastballs this spring, while learning to lay off breaking balls on the outside half that he couldn't handle. Gaynor's third-base tools are playable, but nothing special. He's fairly agile in his big frame, but his impressive stolen-base numbers came more from his base-running instincts and opportunity than raw speed. Gaynor played an outfield corner and first base as a freshman for the Hilltoppers, and could see time at those positions down the road, depending on an organization's needs.--DAVID RAWNSLEY

Gaynor's probably the No. 1 third base prospect in the Tigers system at the moment, but that says more about the other guys manning the hot corner on the farm than it does about Gaynor. Honestly, that scouting report doesn't exactly inspire great confidence that this isn't Ronnie Bourquin 2.0.

What do the stats I've got say about him? Well first, here's his page on College Splits. He really mashed a junior for the Hilltoppers. So far, I've only got 2008 and 2009 data for the Sun Belt conference -- Gaynor's sophomore and junior seasons.

2008

.406 adjusted wOBA
.237 adjusted IsoP
6.0% BB rate
10.6% K rate
15.54 runs above average
73.93 "score"

2009

.484 adjusted wOBA

.388 adjusted IsoP

10.7% BB rate

13.7% K rate

28.55 runs above average

107.02 "score"

Runs Above Average is using the wOBA conversion. I've used it before in my valuations of Curtis Granderson or Milton Bradley. You subtract the players wOBA by the league wOBA, divide by 1.15 and the multiply by the number of plate appearances the player had. In this case, the league wOBA is the conference wOBA.

In 2008, the average hitter in the Sun Belt Conference (with at least 75 PA's as that was my cut off for tracking players) was .343. So Gayror was 73 points above average. In 2009, the Sun Belt Conference average wOBA was .374. See why adjusting college baseball numbers is nearly impossible, but could be so intriguing? The offensive landscape can shift majorly in the course of one season. The wOBA jumped 40 points from 2008 to 2009 in the Sun Belt.

Lincoln Hamilton, who handles a lot of the college data at Project Prospect does much of the same things that I've laid out here. In email exchanges and discussions in the Project Prospect forums, he's mentioned that kids that excel as sophomores or freshman have a much better chance at being an impact player in professional baseball. Guys that are decent as underclassmen but blossom as Juniors are much more dangerous and more likely to bust. This makes sense, though, right? Really good at a younger age usually  means you're a supreme talent. It's why Miguel Cabrera is so coveted. Or why Ken Griffey, Jr. and Alex Rodriguez and Tim Lincecum are all so stunning -- the talent level at such a young age.

What that means, in my eyes for Gaynor, is that he was rather unspectacular in 2008 as a sophomore. His wOBA and IsoP were 23rd and 16th in the Sun Belt conference alone. Open that up over the 11 conferences I have for 2008 and it really pales in comparison: 315th in wOBA and 163rd in IsoP. His BB and K%'s were good for 1005th and 981st respectively. These are out of the 1194 players I have for 2008.

Now, it's entirely possible that he really did blossom as a junior and will be a solid professional player. It's even more likely that I'm wrong (I often am). But, the scouting report above and my numbers here don't incite a lot of excitement about the 89th overall pick in last June's draft. He signed for $392,400 which isn't much for a major league team. If he even reaches the major leagues, I'd venture to guess that'd make him worth the price tag it took to sign him.

If there's questions on my methods or you'd like his standings for his 2009 numbers, just leave me a comment. I'll be more than happy to oblige.