Trading Curtis Granderson

The media and internet has been quite a-buzz with rumors of Curtis Granderson potentially being shopped by the Detroit Tigers. I want to say this right off the bat: I think Dombrowski is listening to offers, not shopping him. There's a difference between the two. And I see no reason for Dombrowski to not listen. You don't know if someone's willing to trade you the moon for him if you're not open to the discussion.

I've valued Curtis Granderson to be quite the bargain back when Lynn Henning was hitting him with the "Trade This Tiger" dart-toss of a column. He finished the 2009 season with 3.4 Wins Above Replacement and now with the Bill James and CHONE projections (hitters only, thus far) being released, we can get a pretty good read on his value. In the past, the Bill James projections have been a bit inflated (probably has to do with the level at which he is regressing the past numbers) and CHONE has proven to be a beast of a projection system as of late. Let's examine him (again). . .


How Does 2010 Look?

Well, Sean Smiths' CHONE projection has Granderson posting 14 runs above average per 150 games. Calculating the wOBA from Sean's line for Grandy, I'm getting a .356 wOBA. If the league wOBA stays at .330-mark again for 2010, then he's looking at being +16 runs in 700 plate appearances (which is 100% playing time).

There are UZR projections out courtesy of Jeff Zimmerman at Beyond the Boxscore. I downloaded the spreadsheet and it's projecting 2.3 runs saved from Curtis in 2010.

Add it together and you're getting 18 runs in 100% playing time. Plus another 20 for replacement and 2.5 for position. If you add it all up we're looking at 40.5 runs but multiply that by 85% (what a normal start plays) and divide by 10.5 and Granderson's roughly valued at 3.28 WAR in 2010 by CHONE.

If we take Bill James' .366 wOBA projection, Granderson then projects for 3.60 WAR.

Basically, we can nail down that he's somewhere between a 3.3 and 3.6 WAR player, which based on last years market would put his projection worth about $14.9 million on the low end and $16.2 million on the high end. It's pretty safe to assume that Granderson will be giving the Tigers around $15 million in on field production for just $5.5 million in salary. That'd net the Tigers a surplus value of $9.5 million. In 2009, he was valued at $15.2 million and was paid just $3.5 million giving the Tigers nearly $12 million in surplus value.

So he is very valuable and a bargain. Add in the great things he does in the community, his presence on the internet through blogging, and how well he seems to carry the torch of being a "professional athlete" and we're looking at a great player and human being.

But, the question isn't how good is Curtis Granderson, it's should they trade Curtis Granderson. And that's where the confusing thoughts come in. If you're a Tigers fan and your first reaction isn't like Steve Carrell's, then I'm not certain how much of a die-hard Tigers fan you are.

Once you've had a Fresca and calmed down a bit, there is some logic behind it. Greg Eno lays out his case on it (good to see I'm not the only one willing to ponder the advantages of it). It all just depends on the direction of the franchise.

The Tigers everyday lineup is old. There's no denying that. It's also very expensive. There's no denying that. And Detroit and the state of Michigan aren't exactly in an economic boom (unless it's a bad explosion-type sound). There's no denying that. But dumping Granderson won't really alleviate any payroll space given how little he makes in 2010. So I'm not buying that excuse for trading him. The scenario that makes sense to me, is if Dave Dombrowski thinks this Tigers team needs to get rebuilt. And that's not such a radical notion. Consider this: The Tigers won 86 games while getting outscored this season. Justin at Beyon the Boxscore's rankings weren't flattering of the Tigers, either. Their Component Win Percentage (in the table that I linked to; cW%) was just .490. They get a boost for being an American League team (and playing a tougher schedule than the NL) but without that adjustment they, based on runs scored and allowed estimates, played like a .490 win% team -- that's a 79-win team.

I know, I know. "They were a missed hit-by-pitch away from being in the playoffs!" all Tigers fans that have meandered over from Bill or Ian or Kurt's site will shout. But that was more of a case of winning a lot of close games, thus beating out the runs scored/allowed projections than actually being an 86-win team. Teams that win a lot of close games generally regress next year without major improvements.

I know, I know. "They have a lot of money coming off the books after 2010's season!" all those same Tigers fans shout, again. But what good is money if there's nothing good to spend it on? You take a gander at the free agent class next year and you tell me how good it looks. Seeing anything interesting besides Joe Mauer? Me either. Sure, we could spend it heavily in the draft and international free agency, but those are both parts of building for the future. Maybe we could pick up a big contract in a trade, but unless it's something like Hanley Ramirez coming to Motown, no one of value is getting dealt with a big contract.

The only way I'm 100% behind dealing Curtis Granderson is if Dave Dombrowski is 100% committed to rebuilding; and I think we need to rebuild sooner rather than later. I know everyone fears the ambiguity of the 17 or so years before 2006, but I don't want to be stuck in the non-playoff ambiguity of winning 80 games every year. I want a World Series title in Detroit and the window, in my opinion, is closed on this current roster doing that -- they just aren't good enough barring major career years from Magglio Ordonez or Carlos Guillen or something of that sort coupled with more great performances from the pitching staff (think: Magglio/Polanco/the bullpen of 2006).

Do I want to watch a 65 or 70 win team again? Not particularly. However, unless you're the Red Sox or the Yankees, rebuilding is apart of every single franchise. Even the Atlanta Braves had to retool their roster and dwell downward in the National League East standings for a couple of years. Long, sustained runs of contending just doesn't happen for many teams in sports.

I love watching Curtis Granderson. He's my second favorite Tiger behind Miguel Cabrera. However, Detroit needs to rebuild. And if that means Curtis Granderson has to be shipped off to fill holes in what is a commitment to rebuilding by the front office, then I will support the decision.