The Trade (Foolish Projections Ahead)

I was going to write this earlier this afternoon after news broke that the Tigers have agreed to deal Curtis Granderson, but I couldn't collect my thoughts enough. Bill, Lee, Matt, Kurt -- and I'm sure Ian, too -- all have thoughts from the emotional side of the issue. They're far more eloquent than I am, so I won't re-hash the things they've said already.

But, being this is Tigers by the Numbers, well, let's get to the numbers after the jump . . .

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What We're Losing

Curtis Granderson is the biggest name, and the best player, involved in this deal. Again, we'll just run through the values of the players involved. Here's what I project for Grandy going forward (click all images to enlarge):

 

I went with 0.3 WAR aging for Granderson because I think he'll age pretty well. If you feel differently, you can substitute whatever you'd like. Grandy projects to bring $6.15 million in value while only being paid $34.8 million (2013 is only $11 mil salary because it's a $2 mil buyout and $13 mil salary).

Edwin Jackson had a career year in 2009 -- and a second half to forget, ERA-wise. Here's what I'm projecting for the 2nd year arbitration-eligible Jackson:

 I only projected the next two seasons because that's all he's under club control for. CHONE has him projecting at about 2.57 WAR and the Fans have him at 2.3, so I took the mid point and then gave him an upgrade in 2011. Personally, I'm being generous here. I think he pitched over his head and that his 2nd half of the 2009 season -- where he returned to career norms in strikeout and walk percentage -- was indicative of his true talents. As for the salary ... I was just guesstimating. He signed for $2.2 million last year to avoid arbitration but that has to double with his career year last year. I plucked $4.8 mil out of mid air and then gave him another raise (because players really don't get pay cuts in arbitration) in 2011.

What We Got Back

Max Scherzer is easily the prize of the returning package. The right hander was drafted out of the University of Missouri and had a very good 2009 season, posting a tRA* of 4.15. That's a regressed defensive independent metric. If you want it to be an ERA predictor, he pitched liked a 3.81 pitcher.

For 2010, CHONE is predicting a 2.48 WAR season. Here's how I'm projecting him:

This is extremely tentative. It's tough to predict 2 or 3 years down the line, let alone all the way to 2014. I think Scherzer is as talented as they come. If this were the winter of 2009, I wouldn't have bet on him being a front line starter, but his 2009 season really changed my opinion. There are red flags, however. He's had shoulder problems and when you throw that hard, no matter how nice of mechanics you have, there's big straight on the arm due to the unnatural motion that is pitching. This projection is assuming good health and that might be a bad assumption on my part.

Mark Schlereth is another college closer from the 2008 draft class that was dominated by college bats and college closers. It's tough to predict him, and the other reliever Phil Coke. I like Coke more than Schlereth so I'll just give Schlereth the following projection:

I think he tops out at 1 WAR as it's hard for relievers to accumulate much WAR.

Phil Coke, I think this is reasonable:

I view Coke as more of a LOOGY reliever. The salaries may be a bit high for him, but who knows. Again, projecting this far down the line is very, very foolish.

Austin Jackson is the guy I think this trade really hinges on. If he turns out to be an above-average centerfielder, the Tigers had a great trade. If not, well, not so much. CHONE is projecting -6 runs per 150 offensively and -17 runs per 150 defensively. With these, and projecting for 85% playing time as soon as 2010, I get the following projection:

Personally, I'm not an Austin Jackson fan. His Triple-A batting line was inflated by an unsustainable batting average on balls in play. When adjusted for that, his Triple-A OPS was just .680 -- not that great. He's not a burner, so I'm not sure how good of defense he'll provide. I was assuming average defense going forward in his career, but the only projection I put any stock in -- and it's just a small amount of it -- is the 2010 projection where he's essentially replacement-level player.

How Did We Do?

Totaling it all up, we traded away roughly $79.4 million in total value and $33.4 million in surplus value. In return, Scherzer, Schlereth, Coke and Jackson bring roughly $137 million in total value and $92.5 million in surplus value.

Caveats

To call these projections "preliminary" isn't good enough. These are drawn in the sand with a stick. Do not take these as any amount of "fact." The projections down the line can and will be wrong on my part. Scherzer comes with health questions, Schlereth with control problems, Jackson with questions about his overall game and being an unproven commodity, and Coke's role as a reliever is questionable as well.

But, doing it this way is the easiest way for me to make sense of a deal of this magnitude. To try to take an objective point of view, the return on this deal appears promising -- then again, most trades for teams getting youngsters in return always appears promising. We gave up the best player in the deal, but got back a No. 2 starting pitcher and three guys with upside. This deal can break a million different ways, but in terms of quality and quantity, it does pass the "stupid, foolish projections a half a decade down the line" numbers test.

That doesn't make it any less sad to see Curtis go, however. I don't get attached to players easily, but I did to him. So good luck in all his ventures moving forward.