Basically, if he repeats his 2009 season, we easily get about 4 times the surplus value of Everett. But, I'm going to say this: he needs to play more.
I know, I know, his bat is awful. It's a pain to watch him stink it up at the plate at the bottom of the order. But that's not where his money lies. Valuing Adam Everett occurs at the jump. . .
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CHONE projects him for 12 runs saved defensively over the course of 113 games and just 356 AB's. Let's break down how his value becomes that:
Offense
The CHONE projection from above works out to a wOBA of .278. That, over 700 PA's is -32 runs below average.
Defense
Jeff Zimmerman's UZR projections have him for 8.6 runs saved. CHONE has him at +12. I feel comfortable saying, if he played every inning of every game, he'd be +15 run defender. We'll roll with that.
Baserunning
Can't forget about this. He's been +2.26 in 2009, +0.7 in 2008 and -0.07 in 2007. The 08 and 07 samples are limited (48 and 66 games respectively). Weighted, and extrapolated out to 162 games I'm getting around 2.25 more runs here.
Value
-32 offense + 15 defense + 2.25 on the bases + 7.5 position +22 replacement = +14.68 runs.
But, that is for 100% playing time which he won't get. Last year, he got about 49% of the playing time at SS. I'd suspect he'd get about 55% with Santiago spelling Scott Sizemore at 2nd more often. So, 55% playing time puts Everett at 8.07 runs above replacement. Convert it to wins and we're looking at 0.77 WAR. For one year, on the open market, that is worth $3.788 million. He's getting just $1.55 mil which gives the Tigers a surplus of $2.238 million.
Now, if we go with him as the everyday shortstop, like the Houston Astros did in 2005 and 2006, and give him 75% of the time at SS, his value drastically increases. I know it'd hurt offensively, but I think this is the way to go.
Give him 75% of the playing time at shortstop and you're looking at 1 WAR -- $4.4 million in value and $2.85 million in surplus value.
Conclusion
No one has ever overpaid for Adam Everett and the Tigers continue this trend. For the cheap amounts of money he's been signed for since hitting free agency, the amount of things Everett has to do is very little to be worth his cost. The Tigers $1.55 million are paying him like he's a 0.35 WAR player and will most likely get double that at the least -- maybe even more if we go with him for 75-85% playing time at shortstop. It's not a huge signing but it very cheaply buys wins for the ball club.
Other analysis from Kurt, Ian, and Bill. Lee also has a post up.
Posts
I'm happy with the move for no other reason that it means we don't get Bobby Crosby. I loved the graphs you made.
ReplyDeleteSurplus value is surplus value, but it's important to recognize Everett for what he is: a starter who offers little above replacement level production.
ReplyDeleteA quarter or third of a win in surplus is worthwile, but a team that expected to contend in a weak division would probably -- no definitely, given the shape of the win-value curve -- be better off paying market rate for a 3-win player. That option may not have existed, and in that case it's fine to fill out your roster with low-value/low-cost players, but marginal wins are increasingly valuable in the 2010 AL-Central. The $3MM in surplus value they get from Everett would be dwarfed by the value they would be likely to receive from a playoff appearance.