2009 CHONE Projections

Sean Smith, who blogs on baseball and the Angels, has released his 2009 CHONE projections for hitters. He's in the process of getting this all set up on a new hosting site as his old one just stopped working (why, I'm not sure and from what I know, neither is he). The CHONE Defensive projections are what I had been using in my previous attempts at valuing a player, and those are currently gone. However, he's assured everyone they will be back when he gets them on his site.

So, go peruse the hitters tabs for your favorite team. The R150 column is Runs Above Average per 150 games based on his own custom Linear Weights system (linear weights is the best method for offensive evaluation). They are also park-adjusted, league-adjusted and there is an "expanded" tab you can click. These are only up for a few (Angels) players. However, what they give is a percentile projection, projections through the 2014 season, and incorporates a speed number which he uses to evaluate baserunning. These are fantastic projections. To see an expanded tab, here's one for Brandon Wood and Vlad Guerrero.

When the defensive projections come back, those are what I would use for defensive prowess until at leas the mid-way point of the 2009 season. Fielding data takes roughly twice as long to stabilize in comparison to offense. So 1 year of fielding data is on par with roughly a half of season of offensive data.

These are, however, the best projections on the internet that I know of (yes, I think they're better than B-Pro's PECOTA projections). And they are 100% free. Please check them out. The Pitchers projections should be up in a few weeks.