I have quickly turned the 2009 projections in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for both hitters and pitchers, and then turned that into a runs value for next season. The Hitters spreadsheet can be found here and the pitchers sheet is here. I used the wOBA turned into Runs Above Average method to get to my WAR numbers, which I should disclose, isn't 100% ideal; wOBA is not park-adjusted. So, Matt Holliday's wOBA calculations aren't taking into account that he's playing 81 times in Coors Field, while Brian Giles is playing half of his games in Petco.
Some caveats: There are no defensive numbers in here. This is straight-up offense. To stick with the 2009 projection theme, I would suggest using the 2009 CHONE Projections.
Also, there are no positional adjustments. This is due to my laziness, as I didn't want to add the position for each of the hitters in the spreadsheets. However, this is very, very easy once you know a person's position. The positional adjustment spectrum is just this:
CA: +12.5 runs
SS: +7.5 runs
2B/3B/CF: +2.5 runs
LF/RF: -7.5 runs
1B: -12.5 runs
DH: -17.5 runs
To add in the defense and the positional adjustment in, you simply add (or subtract) those to the number in the RAA column on my spreadsheet. You divide that new number by 10.5 (the relationship between runs and wins among players) and then add 2 (replacement level is 2 wins below average).
Lets run through an example. We'll use Curtis Granderson. His RAA in my table comes out at +15.7. His CHONE defensive projection has him at +13 runs. That makes him now at +28.7 runs above average. He gets another 2.5 run boost for being a Centerfielder, which puts his RAA at 31.2. Divide that by 10.5 and you get 2.97 Wins Above Average. Add in another 2, and he becomes 4.97 Wins Above Replacement in 2009. That equates out to being $24.85 million. His 2009 salary is currently just $3.5 million, a difference of $21.35 million -- quite the bargain.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment