More SS Solutions; Everett and Izturis

Well, Billfer mentioned Cesar Izturis and Adam Everett as other options that have been linked to the Tigers. Well, lets look at how they stack up, in dollars, with Wilson and each other.

Adam Everett

The hands-down best defensive shortstop in baseball just a couple seasons ago, a couple injury-plagued seasons have left his once +40-something plays above-average defense down to just +18 plays in 2007 (he wasn't on the Fielding Bible leaderboards in 2008). As the very definition of an all-glove, no-bat Shortstop, this is not good news. Marcels has his wOBA projection at .280 in 299 PA's. On the very surface, that comes out to, using the method in my previous post, -14.3 runs above average (RAA). That then converts over to being 0.638 Wins Above Average (WAA) offensively. Again, that's just 299 PA's. If we give him just 75% of the playing time (full time starters are normally around the 85% range) because of his injury troubles, that puts him at -25 runs above average offensively, which is -0.391 WAA.

But, we know that his bread is buttered by his glove. The CHONE defensive projections have him at +19 runs defensively. We add those to his RAA over the course of 75% playing time (525 PA's; -25 RAA), and you get -6 RAA. Convert that WAR, puts him at 1.43 WAR. Add on 0.5 wins for being a SS, and his overall WAR becomes 1.93 -- close to Jack Wilson's 1.98 WAR we discovered earlier. This WAR of 1.93 equates out to being worth $9.65 million on the open market for a 1 year deal. Coming off of an injury riddled last couple of years, his asking price will be drastically slashed -- maybe even into the $4.5 range, or roughly half of his value based on his Marcels Projections.

The pros: Can be had cheap. 2008 salary was just $2.8 million. Doesn't cost anything in terms of players. No long term commitment.

The cons: Health is an issue, and his seemingly declining defense is even more of an issue. Still an above-average defender, his bat comes close to completely negating his defensive worth.

Cesar Izturis

Izturis had 414 PA's with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2008 and posted a .292 wOBA -- his highest since the .313 wOBA he posted with the LA Dodgers in 2004. Marcels projects a .290 wOBA over the course of 421 PA's, which is roughly 60% of the playing time. We'll put him on equal footing to Everett above, and give him 525 PA's -- or just 75% of the playing time. His .290 wOBA would put him at -20.54 runs above average over the course of 525 PA's in 2009. His Marcels projection puts him at just +7 with the glove -- not the projection that Everett has. Izturis finished 2008 at +19 in the Fielding Bible. Those +19 plays equate out to 14 runs saved when converted using Chris Dials conversions. That total is pretty much corroborated by Beyond the Boxscore and Dan Turkenkopf, who turned the Probabilistic Model of Range into a runs total. Dan found that over the course of 4000 balls in play, Izturis was worth 11.36 runs. With what we know and what the CHONE projection has for Izturis, I feel comfortable calling him +10 runs defensively, for a nice, round number.

So his runs total offensively is -20.54 and basically cut that in half due to his work with the leather, and you get a new RAA of -10.54, or -1.00 Wins Above Average -- which converts to being 1 Win Above Replacement. Add in another half a win for positional adjustment like before, and he's a 1.5 WAR player -- valued at $7.5 million.


The pros: Another very cheap option. He played for just $2.85 million in 2008 and likely could be had for nearly the same cost -- maybe a bit more. Either way, he comes lower than what he's worth relative to the replacement player. He, like Everett, costs no prospects at all.

The cons: Very weak bat. Not as weak as Everett, not as good as Jack Wilson's. He's kind of directly in between. He's also Wilson's equal defensively (or thereabouts), but lags behind Everett with the leather.

Jack Wilson (Again)

I figured out 1.98 WAR and a value of $9.9 million in my previous post. However, that was for 595 PA's, or 85% of the playing time. To put him on equal footing with Everett and Izturis, we'll downgrade him to 75% of the playing time. His RAA becomes -10.96 + 7 for his defense which becomes a WAA of -0.377. +0.5 for positional adjustment and 2 to get his WAR, and he then becomes +2.123 WAR. That equates out to $10.615 million.

My feelings of the entire situation: it stinks. I would much prefer Edgar Renteria, and I feel that we'll be longing for the days of E-Rent soon into the 2009 season. However, economics of the ball club (and country) dictate that Renteria was not a plausible option. As Billfer pointed out in his wrap up that was my first link in this post, Wilson costs $7.5 million -- not much of a break from what Renteria was given by the Giants today. If we get the Pirates to cover most of that salary, that does two things: (1) says a whole lot about the state of the team financially -- and not in a good way and (2) up's the quality of prospect heading the other way.

If I had to choose one, I think I choose Cesar Izturis (1.5 WAR). Wilson's (2.213 WAR) price tag, given the moves or lack of moves from Detroit this year, seems out of the question, and giving away a quality prospect for a stop-gap shortstop in the last year of his deal is not something I want to do. I give Izturis the nod over Everett simply because Everett's (1.93 WAR) declining defense and inability to stay healthy the last two season really drop down his value in my mind.

At the end of the day, though, you find yourself just trying to polish up the rotten apple in the basket enough to convince yourself it's safe to eat.